With Former Military General Prabowo Subianto Set To Be Indonesia's New President, Is There Another Unpredictable Leader On The Map?

The name of Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, the former son-in-law of long-time authoritarian leader Suharto, was one that sent chills down the spine of Indonesian people. Reared in the strict military regiments of a nation that has grappled with authoritarian rule over decades, Subianto was a face of the bygone browbeaten decades. Imagine seeing that very person on TikTok, dancing on stage, throwing finger hearts at his supporters, placing his two pet cats as a central tile to his campaign and maintaining an Instagram account for them as well. He is referred to as "gemoy", a moniker for all things cute and cuddly. The once fiery emblem of Indonesia's bloody and repressive history, 'grandpa' Subianto also has a young squad of followers who call themselves the "gemoy squad" and are obsessed with his kittens just like their 'cute' leader.

Subianto is all set to be Indonesia’s next President after apparently gaining a significant lead in the initial ‘quick count’ results. The procedure is stipulated to last a month before official results are confirmed, but 'quick counts' ballots at voting stations from Indonesian polling companies show Prabowo winning close to 58% of the votes. According to the BBC, 5 million voters across Indonesia's 17,000 islands and three time zones voted in the world's biggest and most complex one-day election.

The 72-year-old former special forces commander, who had run unsuccessfully for president twice before, has likely raked in 58 percent of the votes and prevailed over opponents Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo.

Who is Prabowo Subianto?

Subianto, 72, a former military general and incumbent defence minister, has been touted by his supporters as a firm leader, capable of maintaining a positive momentum for the world’s third largest democracy. Born in 1951 to one of Indonesia’s most powerful families, his father, Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, was an influential politician, and a minister under Presidents Sukarno and Suharto. Forced into exile, after his father went against General Sukarno, Subinato’s family returned to Indonesia after General Suharto came into power. Subianto enrolled in Indonesia’s Military Academy in 1970, graduated in 1974 and served in the military for nearly three decades. In 1976, Subianto joined the Indonesian National Army Special Force, called Kopassus. In early 2008, Prabowo established the Gerindra Party and participated in two consecutive elections, losing in both. He was was inaugurated as Indonesia's Minister of Defense by president Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo in 2019.

Presidential Run

With outgoing President Jokowi not in the running having met his two-term limit, in a turn of events, he endorsed Subinato whom he defeated in two previous elections. Jokowi is a member of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P party and his supporters were expected to back PDI-P presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo, but with Subianto backing by Jokowi, his campaign found its primary driving force. Jokowi still remains extremely popular for policies and for transforming Indonesia into an emerging economic power by splurging on infrastructure and attracting foreign investment, and Prabowo has expressed that he wishes to continue with the economic policies and the projects in place. Besides inheriting the economy, Subianto looks to keep a slate of ambitious developmental plans and infrastructural projects going, including the transfer of capital from Jakarta to the island of Borneo.

 It is predicted that PDI-P will remain the largest party in the national legislature, and the two parties that follow are the ones that backed Prabowo – Golkar and Gerindra. The next eight months will see a spate of political trade deals and tactics to establish the new regime, as Subinato is to be announced in October. Political critics note that the way Subianto’s image morphing from that of a hardlined conservative army-man to a lovable grandfather figure embracing modern trends, over the years has played an important role in appealing to the cross-section of young and middle aged-voters.

Concerns

Subianto has been recognised as a polarising figure and the striking allegations of him being involved in cases of army torture and civil rights abuses have certainly raised concerns. The kidnapping and torture of pro-democracy activists in 1998, and civil rights abuses in Papua and East Timor where a 1983 massacre saw hundreds of people being killed in the Timorese village of Kraras involved Prabowo’s orders. Although many of his men were tried and convicted, he has denied all allegations and not been convicted. He was ousted from the army in 1998, following which he went into a self-imposed exile. Out of the 22 activists kidnapped that year, 13 are still missing. Prabowo was previously banned from entering the US, until he was made the Defence Minister by Jokowi in 2019.

Jokowi has also been criticised for going against democratic ideals, and sliding into the dictatorial and dynastic heritage of Indonesian politics.  His 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s running as Prabowo’s vice-president has also raised grave concerns. At the time of the endorsements, for becoming a vice presidential candidate, one had to be 40 years or older. To enable Gibran to run, the Constitutional Court of Indonesia led by Gibran's uncle-in-law, in October 2023, made a controversial ruling that added an exception to the minimum age for individuals who had been elected as regional leaders. Four days later, on 21 October 2023, the Golkar party which had been part of Subianto’s coalition declared Gibran as the party's vice-presidential candidate although he was still part of PDI-P.

The entire political nexus has raised concerns alongside Subianto’s history of human rights violations. Many fear Indonesia’s descent into yet another dynastic dictatorial era is imminent with Subianto as the President, while others seem to be influenced by his overt rebranding which has been considered a strategic inevitability with Jokowi sidelined now.