Is there any way the 30-day stipulation can be met?
The September session could extend into October. But the IAEA and NSG approvals must come early enough for this extra time to be of significance. Members of Congress who are up for re-election are keen to focus on their campaigns rather than hang around Washington for the N-deal. May only extend session if there is other unfinished legislative business.
Prospects: slim.
Any loophole to meet the 30-day requirement before September 26?
Yes, India could get approval from the IAEA and NSG in August, and hope for pro forma sessions of Congress in the same month. You could then have 30 days before September 26, but only if both the Senate and the House are in pro forma session.
Likelihood: Remote.
Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives
What's a pro forma session?
The Senate majority leader appoints a senator to bang the gavel in the Senate to indicate it is technically in session. This method is used to prevent the president from making appointments during the recess. In the House of Representatives (HoR), the Speaker calls such a session. The House is unlikely to schedule a pro forma session during the summer recess as it doesn't have appointment powers.
Can the 30-day stipulation be waived?
Yes, the HoR can pass by a simple majority a "resolution of approval" to this effect. But the Senate can waive this rule only if each and every Senator agrees.
Chances: Remote.
Does the deal die if it isn't passed in the September session?
No, it can be passed by a lame-duck session of Congress between November 4 and January 3, 2009. This session is called to complete pending legislative business. In recent years it has lasted up to three weeks. These extra days may help the deal meet the 30-day requirement.
Who calls a lame-duck session?
Usually, the Senate majority leader and House Speaker. The president can call for it, but hasn't ever. President Bush can set a precedent.
What are the chances of a lame-duck session?
Judge yourself: 15 lame-duck sessions have been held between 1940 and 2004; the figure is just six for the year in which presidential and congressional elections were held together.
Has a lame-duck session ever considered a foreign policy issue?
Yes. But the N-deal doesn't have the same resonance in America as it has in India. In other words, the deal is doable, but needs a few miracles.
