Tremors After Timor

So far, specific offers of personnel have come from Australia, New Zealand, the US, Canada, Portugal, England, France, Sweden, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Italy, Singapore and Brazil. Non-specific offers have come from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, China, Russia, Malaysia and Fiji.

Events have moved fast since President Habibie announced a referendum for East Timor on May 5, even though he’s in little more than a caretaker position since President Suharto stepped down in ’98. Indonesia expert Ganganath Jha at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, says that "none of the western powers were pushing for a referendum at this time, nor were any of the Asian countries; it’s taken everyone by surprise." Although the West and many of the Asian countries have come to grips with the situation, it appears South Block mandarins are still floundering in a sea of uncertainty. "India’s always accepted East Timor as a part of Indonesia...the new situation’s thrown up new questions and to be very frank I do not have the answers," says one mea official, a few days after the referendum. But South Block is clear on one issue—that of sovereignty. As one official put it: "No one pressured Indonesia into taking the decision to hold a referendum, it was purely their own." His implication: none can pressure India into holding a similar referendum in Kashmir.

South Block officials are also quick to deny any link between the decision to send peacekeepers to the former Portuguese outpost, and implications of that decision for Kashmir. "After all, we’ve sent peacekeepers to other places too, like the former Yugoslavia and Kosovo, so why should we not send peacekeepers to East Timor?" Jha, however, dismisses the comparison as naive. "We have close connections with Indonesia in trade, we’ve had cooperation in fighting drug smuggling as well as strategic cooperation... Indonesia has the power to destabilise us if they want to. Kosovo is insignificant in that respect. These officials are living in some sort of fairyland."

They’re merely trying to take comfort in the fact that India will send in troops only if invited to do so by Indonesia—thus avoiding the risk of angering a worthy Muslim ally which has been giving much-needed support to India’s stand on Kashmir. But critics say Indonesia does not have a veto on the force composition, and that such statements by the mea are just another attempt to duck and dive from the crisis at hand. In fact, it has been observed that whether it is the Moscow coup, or the invasion of Kuwait, the world’s largest democracy ends up as a friend of the oppressor.

And while policymakers in New Delhi may rest content in the knowledge that events in East Timor can’t touch India, little do they realise that local Kashmiris have been drawing inspiration from TV images flashing in recent weeks. Says Omar Farooq, Mirwaiz-e-Kashmir: "I feel there’s a striking resemblance between the two situations. East Timor has shown the world that complex issues can also be resolved." He is in fact planning a trip to New York to emphasise his point at the UN General Assembly. And India will risk international criticism if it tries to block his visit.

The Mirwaiz-e-Kashmir detects a new enthusiasm and optimism among intellectuals in Kashmir. But what he disagrees with is their viewing the violence in East Timor as an unfortunate but necessary pain that must be gone through to attain freedom. "We must take time to come to an agreement, even if it takes us another 15 years...we do not want to descend into anarchy." East Timor is in fact an example of botched integration by force compared with India’s successful integration of the former Portuguese colony of Goa in December ’61.

Parallels between Kashmir and East Timor are being drawn by analysts in Delhi as well. According to Jha, Portugal had referred East Timor for a referendum to the UN just before its aggressive takeover by Indonesian forces in December ’75. Nehru had likewise referred Kashmir to the UN for a plebiscite that never took place. And just as the West did not accept East Timor’s annexation, so also countries in the European Union, the US, China, et al believe Kashmir to be a disputed area.

The difference between the Indian and East Timor situation, however, is that while Kashmir became the battleground for an Indo-Pak war, no third party has been involved in East Timor. Also, while the population in East Timor is overwhelmingly Roman Catholic, apart from the Indonesian army, the population in Kashmir is heterogenous—comprising Sunnis, Shias, Bakerwals, Gujjars, Paharis as also a substantial number of non-Muslims. Kashmir analyst Amitabh Mattoo believes the two situations are fundamentally dissimilar. "The East Timorese movement had tremendous leadership...it did not get criminalised, instead, it threw up Nobel peace prize winners. Can you imagine any Kashmiri leader winning one?" The awards given to Jose Ramos Horta and Bishop Carlos Belo in ’96 raised the profile of the struggle; world attention had been focused on it ever since the ’91 Santa Cruz cemetery massacre in Dili. Former coloniser Portugal, accused of doing little for the people of East Timor, had used the opportunity to lobby for self-determination for the territory within the EU. Also, for its part, the Clinton administration has taken more interest in the situation than any prior administration. It was this international pressure, combined with Indonesia’s economic collapse and its subsequent dependence on the imf for a $11.3 bn bailout package, that finally forced Indonesia’s hand. "India has no such impending crisis," says Mattoo.

And Kashmir is safe, for the time being. Mattoo says East Timor is nothing more than a symbol for the Kashmiris, which may encourage popular resistance. But if asked to be a part of the peacekeeping force in East Timor, he thinks India shouldn’t refuse. "It would just attract international attention." Onward, Indian peacekeepers then?