Heat & Bust?

• He can remain as army chief, quit the president’s post
• Get re-elected as president in 2007 and quit as army chief
• Get re-elected now and continue as army chief also
• Retire from public life

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He’s never lacked candour, and he’s always had an exaggerated notion of his importance in Pakistan’s destiny. But General Pervez Musharraf still managed to surprise the nationwith his recent confession to The Guardian. He said, "My popularity has gone down...but at this moment my country needs me. I’ve put a strong, constitutional democratic system in place. That will throw up a successor. I’m a strong believer in democracy." The confession prompted pundits to ask: is Musharraf feeling the heat ruling Pakistan? Is he planning to quit? Can he introduce real democracy, satisfy the West and the nation, and yet keep calling the shots, as he has for the last seven years?

It’s no state secret that Musharraf is buffeted by problems. As chief of the Pakistan army, he undergoes the ignominy of watching his troops battle the Balochistan Liberation Army in the country’s largest province. Then the Taliban has reared its diabolic face in the areas bordering Afghanistan. Worse, deposed PMs-in-exile Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif have been taking vows in London of not aligning with the military regime, besides signing the Charter of Democracy. Add to this the mounting external pressures, particularly America’s expression of doubt about the General’s ‘commitment’ to the war on terror. Nor has his hopes fructified over leaving a stamp on history through a resolution of the Kashmir issue.

Every inch an army general, Musharraf has been trying to break the siege he finds himself hemmed in. A confidante says, "Musharraf has his thinking cap on these days, he’s pondering on how to move in Pakistan’s political minefield...despite his best attempts, he could not do all that he thought he could."

Prescient political watchers here say Musharraf essentially has four options before him, each one precarious. He could choose to remain Chief of the Army Staff(COAS) but resign as president; he could get himself elected president for another five years—and relinquish or retain the post ofCOAS; or he could retire from public life.

The prevailing constitutional arrangement, brought via successive amendments, is perplexing. Ask the question: does it allow Musharraf to remainCOAS even after his term as president expires in 2007? Yes, many say. With the army as the pivot of power, this measure could allow Musharraf to call the shots even if he chooses to not get re-elected as president. A few say this isn’t possible because it was Musharraf as president who extended hisCOAS tenure. Should he demit the august office, he automatically ceases to beCOAS, they insist.

So why wouldn’t he want to continue as president? The answer: a fear of losing the presidential election. In November 2007, Pakistan elects new provincial assemblies, the National Assembly and, ultimately, the Senate—these three together constitute the electoral college of the president. A new electoral college is not expected to prove as amenable as the existing one; it could tilt against him. Musharraf wouldn’t want to expose himself to such humiliation.

Yet, a move to remain COAS without being president could prove even more treacherous. For one, the new president will be empowered to dismiss theCOAS. Secondly, Washington may not endorse this move as it sees in Musharraf—and the army—a diminishing utility in the war against terror. More significantly, Musharraf’s continuation asCOAS could fan discontent in the General Headquarters (GHQ). It’s said that at the last Formation Commanders meeting, a serving general advised Musharraf that it was time he quit the post ofCOAS. Declining popularity and unrest in the GHQ could prove incendiary for him.

Couldn’t Musharraf then relinquish the post of COAS—a demand of the political parties—and get himself re-elected as President post-2007 elections? For this to happen, the new electoral college should be favourably disposed towards him. Political analyst Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi explains the improbability of Musharraf manipulating elections to his advantage. As he puts it, "The civil and military establishments may find it difficult to manage the elections because the international community will be carefully monitoring it. Also, the Opposition forces are more determined now to take on the Musharraf government in the 2007 elections, if not earlier."

The implausibility of influencing another election has prompted the ruling Pakistan Muslim League to float a new idea—Musharraf gets himself re-elected as president by the existing electoral college. But the General is a man who wants legitimacy—in the eyes of the nation and the West. Ideally, he’d like the new electoral college to elect him. Reports say he has been negotiating withBenazir. PML members, however, say Benazir won’t play ball, aware that Musharraf needs her more than she needs him to come to power. She may accept Musharraf as president, offer him her party’s support, but only if he relinquishes the post ofCOAS. Otherwise, democracy in Pakistan would become meaningless, as Musharraf would continue to call the shots.

But it’s unlikely Musharraf will be content being president without the COASpost. Relinquishing the uniform could diminish Musharraf’s clout substantially, even reduce him to a figurehead. His power today arises from the post ofCOAS. All those who queue up at his office today would transfer their allegiance to the newCOAS. Becoming a mere rubber stamp is not on Musharraf’s agenda.

Observers feel the United States will play a vital role in determining the option Musharraf ultimately chooses. A hint of what the former wants was best articulated by ex-US ambassador to Pakistan, William Milam, who visited the country recently. Milam said, "It occurs to me that the linking of the liberal political parties with Musharraf has at least the faint hope that ideologically like-minded allies have a better chance...to work out a modus vivendi to tackle the immense social, political and economic problems that Pakistan faces, as well as those questions of national identity and regional fissiparousness that plague the country. Perhaps, over a few years, such an alliance will develop enough mutual trust that the traditional military dogma—that civilians are not fit to run the country—will dissipate." In other words, the US will want Musharraf and the political parties to reach an agreement about the new arrangement.

Failing these options, Musharraf could always retire from public life. A family source toldOutlook, "He is wellknown for his commando actions...even in the past he has been quite impulsive as far as decision-making is concerned. Opinion is divided even in the family. His US-based son wants him to continue in uniform while his Karachi-based daughter says he should take to civvies." There are reports that the general is taking a keen interest in the new home he is building on the outskirts of Islamabad. A ploy to hoodwink his opponents? Well....

Mariana Baabar in Islamabad