New Delhi's dilemma is surely delicate, given China's looming presence on India's borders and its emergence as the country's largest trading partner. Ever alert to Chinese sensitivities, the government arrested about 100 Tibetans trying to cross the border into China to mark the 1959 uprising. The act would have been "patently illegal", to say nothing of the wider implications of other communities deciding to cross borders to express anger, say sources. The government went the extra mile to throw a strong security cordon around the Chinese embassy, even blocking roads leading to schools during the crucial board exams. The Chinese neither heard nor saw the Tibetan monks, students, activists and regular folk who gathered in central Delhi and went on hunger strikes. Memories of October 2006 when Tibetan activists scaled the walls of the Chinese embassy were embarrassingly fresh. "Once the faith is broken, it is difficult to restore it," commented an official. "There is a thin line between legitimate protest and abusing the privilege."
Sources say the Tibetan refugee community in India has been "infiltrated" by China; Beijing appears to get regular feedback on the politics and plans of various groups. But Indians are generally sympathetic to the Tibetans. More than 40 members of the All Party Indian Parliamentary Forum for Tibet, excluding the Communists, signed a statement "strongly condemning the unabated campaign of repression reinforced by the more severe current brutalities" by China. They called for "meaningful negotiations" with the Dalai Lama.
India officially expressed "distress" at the "unsettled situation and violence" in Tibet which, officials pointed out, was stronger than statements of "concern" from western countries. "How many Tibetan refugees does the West shelter? Western leaders even feel shy of meeting the Dalai Lama," commented one informed source. The Australian and Japanese premiers have refused meetings while India plays host to the senior Lama leadership and a Tibetan government-in-exile, a "political act" in itself. Besides, India resisted Chinese requests in January to refer to Tibet as an integral part of China in the vision statement and has rejected demands to limit the spiritual leader's activities.
India's stand may seem cautious, officials say, but there are compulsions from diverse interests in a very complex relationship. Indian businessmen want to invest in China and tourists desire visas for the Great Wall experience. India's trade with China has climbed to $38 billion. Any political discord would not only affect trade with China but trade with other partners as well since China is the world's factory. But when the Dalai Lama talks of "ecological disaster" in Tibet unleashed by mega projects of a China racing to build dams, India takes serious note. Chinese plans to divert the Brahmaputra have caused major worries because of the impact it will have on waters reaching India.
But is caution overtaking the need to act in self-interest? Critics say that opportunities even when obvious are missed. "We have a very defensive China policy. Even when the Chinese provoke us, we don't react," says Kanwal Sibal, a former foreign secretary of India. Tibet is at the heart of India's border problem with China, he said. If China refuses to engage the Dalai Lama in a constructive dialogue, the refugees can't return, a fact India can raise in bilateral talks. And if the Tibetans are overwhelmed by the Chinese and their culture subsumed or diluted, India's first line of defence would be gone.
