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North Korea's nuclear test couldn't have come at a worse time for India, fanning proliferation concerns in Washington and bolster the hopes of the US-India nuclear deal opponents that they could now scupper it. For one, critics are going to invoke the North Korean test to "make 'non-proliferation in danger' as their rallying cry", says Walter Andersen of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He worries that some US lawmakers may buy into this "spurious argument".
An Indo-US nuclear deal, it is feared, may provide impetus to other countries to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship. As Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, says, "It may highlight the fact that the US and the international response to India and Pakistan's nuclear tests has been one of criticism, sanctions and isolation, but then gradual rapprochement and forgiveness. North Korea may have believed its actions will also eventually be accepted." Consequently, North Korea's action may reinforce the belief that "we shouldn't take the kind of non-proliferation risks the Bush administration has taken with the India deal," says former state department official Robert Einhorn.
The North Korean test has come at a time when the nuclear bill is still pending before Congress. The House of Representatives approved it in July, but a combination of factors prevented the Senate from voting on a similar measure before it went into the recess preceding the congressional poll. The Senate may take up the bill when it meets in a "lame duck" session on November 13. However, if the Senate doesn't approve the bill this year, both versions of the measure will lapse and the new Congress will have to restart debate on fresh bills next year.
The size of the change in composition of Congress after the November 7 polls will also determine the bill's fate, says Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center here. The bigger the Democrats' gains in the House and Senate, the harder it'll be for the new Congress to take up unfinished business from the outgoing one.
India's Ambassador Ronen Sen, however, isn't worried, and points out that though India isn't a signatory to the nuclear npt, it has never undermined the regime. "Our track record speaks for itself. In juxtaposition with such developments it shows how impeccable our record has been, and the fact that it has even been better than most members of the current Nuclear Suppliers Group, let alone clandestine proliferation from our neighbourhood," Sen told Outlook.
Sen's argument has its echo on Capitol Hill, where some Congress members believe the Korea test will have little impact on the Indian deal. Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos, the co-chairman of the House International Relations Committee, told Outlook that members of Congress "will understand that the US should not hold up nuclear cooperation with a democratic friend simply because North Korea has violated international security again." Similarly, Kimberly A. Olive, communications director for South Carolina Republican Congressman Joe Wilson, said "comparing North Korea's rogue nuclear programme to India's civil programme is like comparing apples to oranges."
Across the political aisle, New Jersey Democratic Congressman Frank Pallone Jr agrees. "India is distinguishably different from a rogue state like North Korea; it has already begun following international proliferation guidelines and has no record of proliferation, unlike North Korea," he told Outlook. By including India in a non-proliferation regime, the US is strengthening the security of Asia for the future. Hopefully, Congress will buy Pallone's line.
