Buttoning It Up

Embarrassed at repeatedly missing its target in Afghanistan, and quite paranoid of what Osama bin Laden may still have in store for it, the United States is attempting to tighten the screws on Pakistan's nuclear establishment and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Its goal: purge the two organisations of alleged jehadi elements and sever any link between them and the Taliban as also bin Laden.

Last month, the Pakistan government removed then isi chief Lt Gen Mahmood Ahmed, presumably at the behest of Washington. Reeling under the same pressure, Islamabad has reportedly handed over three superannuated Pakistani nuclear scientists to American investigators for probing their alleged links with bin Laden and the Taliban. Among them is Sultan Bashiruddin Mehmood, former director-general, nuclear power, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), and his colleagues, Abdul Majeed, a former chief engineer, and Mirza Yousaf Baig, a senior scientist.

Sources claim that Sultan Mehmood, who was running an ngo by the name of Ummah Tameer-e-Nau (Ummah Reconstruction), was arrested from his Islamabad residence on October 24, and subsequently released on October 26, after being cleared of the suspicion that "he was working against US interests". But he was picked up again the following day and allegedly handed over to a US team for interrogation.

Sultan's organisation was involved in voluntary activities in Afghanistan, but the US believes he used the ngo cover to assist bin Laden in his search for crude nuclear weapons. The scientist's family and close associates simply refute this charge.

The Pakistan government too has come to Mehmood's defence, albeit confusingly. Said government spokesman Maj Gen Rasheed Qureshi: "Sultan Bashiruddin retired in 1998 from the government service and became involved with an ngo. In the process, he had been to Afghanistan and certain questions are being asked about this and the process is continuing. He is not under arrest but is presently unwell and in an Islamabad hospital."

Claiming that Sultan's interrogation was in line with the policy of identifying those running dubious ngos, Qureshi said: "Bashiruddin is being asked as to why he had travelled to Afghanistan. Apparently, he was involved in some land development research. As poppy is no more being cultivated in Afghanistan, his efforts were to look for substitute crops."

Such clarifications apart, government sources say that Gen Pervez Musharraf's unstinted support to the US has fanned resentment in military and intelligence circles, even raising fears about his security and the future of his government. These sources say the cia has accused the isi of playing a double game post-September 11, of pretending to help and yet allowing the flow of weapons into Afghanistan. Wary of the isi, the US pressured Musharraf to remove Ahmed and co, via sweeping changes in the army on October 8, in the hope of getting credible intelligence on the Taliban.

On October 10, however, a mysterious fire broke out in the heavily-guarded General Headquarters (GHQ) building in Rawalpindi, reducing to ashes some top secret intelligence files there. Though the government claimed the fire was triggered by a short circuit, sources say some middle-ranking intelligence officers set the blaze, hoping to destroy evidence of cooperation between Pakistan and the Taliban and between the isi and bin Laden.

As far as the Americans are concerned, there's much the isi needs to conceal. For instance, they allege that bin Laden, who suffers from a renal problem, had been periodically undergoing dialysis in a Peshawar military hospital with the knowledge and approval of the isi. US intelligence officials also say that given the ban on flights from and to Afghanistan due to UN sanctions, the only way of meeting bin Laden was to fly to Peshawar and then taking the road to Kandahar. A French newspaper even claimed: "The isi and the Pakistan army had been facilitating this mode of travel by the foreign-based cadres of the Al Qaeda and other constituents of the International Islamic Front for Jehad against the US and Israel."

Some feel Islamabad's new Afghan policy has divided the isi into pro and anti-Taliban factions. They also do not rule out the possibility that mujahideen commander Abdul Haq, who was nabbed and executed in Afghanistan on October 26, was betrayed by the pro-Taliban faction to avenge the recent killing of 35 Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) activists in US attacks in Afghanistan. The targeted bombing of HuM activists had come following an intelligence report the anti-Taliban isi faction had provided.



However, former isi chief Lt Gen (rtd) Hamid Gul refutes all this, claiming that Washington was blaming the isi for the failures of its smart bombs. Significantly though, Gul confirms that the Pakistan government has ordered extraordinary security measures at Pakistan's important nuclear installations in Chagai Hills, Kahuta and Khushab and the missile sites at Sargodha on the Kirana Hills.

Among other things, as Outlook had earlier reported, the Pakistan government had ordered closure of all airports on September 15 for transporting 'sensitive luggage' from the country's nuclear installations. Sources say the military regime feared these could be targeted intentionally by US planes using the Pakistani air corridor, or hit accidentally through miscalculation.

Pakistan intelligence agencies have discovered recently that cia director George Tenet has created a special unit to monitor Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes. Sources say the special cia unit would continuously monitor Pakistan's nuclear installations by acquiring high-resolution imageries through satellite technology. They reveal that the monitoring of Pakistan's nuclear installations have already begun.

Such US activities were precisely why the government had sought complete advance information about US strikes on Afghanistan. But military sources say the US authorities have refused to furnish flight schedules, fearing they'd be leaked to the Taliban. Washington's attitude, sources argue, could only fan the existing resentment against the government's unstinted support for Operation Enduring Freedom.

There are other perturbing questions: will Pakistani officials who were in contact with bin Laden and his men support Musharraf's new Afghan policy without reservation? At what point could they decide to oppose Musharraf? Analysts say the worst case scenario is of the Musharraf regime losing its grip on power, and renegade army officials joining the agitation of religious groups. Then, the country's nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists.

Though there's nothing to suggest that resentment in the army is anywhere near reaching boiling point, Musharraf is aware of the propensity of the west to believe in Doomsday scenarios. Hence, he and his men are repeatedly stressing that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is safe, that it's governed by an elaborate command and control system and that the military regime is stable.

Also coming to the government's defence was foreign minister Abdul Sattar, who made an impromptu appearance at the foreign office briefing. "Any apprehension that the (nuclear) assets might fall into the hands of extremists is entirely imaginary, perhaps a product of distortions caused by TV images magnifying the sights and sounds of protesters." Sattar then went on to say: "Not a single incident of theft or leakage of nuclear material, components or technology has occurred so far."

Pointing out that a clear chain of responsibility has been prescribed and enforced to ensure that strategic weapons cannot be deployed without due authorisation, Sattar said: "Stringent measures have been taken to minimise the risks of accidental, unintentional or unauthorised launch."

Sattar's briefing was an attempt to allay the fears of foreign governments, besides addressing the domestic constituency exercised about media reports speculating on the possibility of Pakistan's nukes being neutralised. Analysts believe it's almost impossible for any government in Islamabad to go beyond the present level of cooperation with the US. Yet the Americans refuse to appreciate it, ironically rendering Musharraf's position even more precarious.