Instead, what got prime attention during the campaign were local issues of development, price rise and the perceived ‘betrayal’ by the JD(S) which had reneged on coalition dharma and denied the bjp’s B.S. Yediyurappa the chief ministership. Of course, it was this that had led to the fall of the government, imposition of President’s rule and early elections.
And it was a strategy that worked, keeping Hindutva on the backburner. The poll results reveal the BJP’s social base to have expanded. Its voteshare touched 33.9 per cent, an increase of 5.3 per cent from 2004. The social mixture was even reflected in the BJP’s 110 MLAs, 38 of whom are Lingayats, with 17 Vokkaligas, 22 SCs, seven STs, 18 OBCs and eight Brahmins. The party’s support base now cuts across castes. Which is also why in the 224-berth assembly it is the single largest party with 110 seats and will be in the government with the support of six independents.
Now compare the BJP’s social base with the Congress spread. Among the party’s 80 legislators 17 are Lingayats, 20 are Vokkaligas, 10 SCs, eight STs, 17 OBCs, seven Muslims and one Brahmin. It almost appears as if the BJP has replicated the Congress’ old winning formula. It has ceased to be merely a party of Lingayats, Brahmins and urbanites, finding new depth among Vokkaligas, OBCs and Dalits. In fact, an overwhelming number of reserved SC seats have gone to the BJP and its OBC seat tally is just one short of the Congress.
An interesting twist in the BJP tale is that it slipped in the coastal belt, considered to be a Hindutva bastion. It was this region that had witnessed communal riots in 2006 and was labelled as the ‘south’s Gujarat’. But the Hindutva mascot here, Nagaraj Shetty, lost his seat (Bantwal) to veteran Congressman Ramanath Rai. And surprisingly, Narendra Modi’s visits drew only moderate crowds.
What helped the BJP victory also is the support of the powerful real estate and mining lobbies. The mining lords of Bellary, the Reddy brothers, influenced results in Bellary, Davangere and Gadag districts. The BJP won 18 seats as a result. The real estate lobby funded the BJP simply to ensure that the JD(S) would be kept out of government formation. The latter won only 28 seats compared to the 58 it cornered in 2004.
According to political observers, the mining and real estate lobbies will soon be demanding their pound of flesh, which could turn out to be a nightmare for the BJP. Besides these two lobbies, the powerful Lingayat maths (seminaries), which played a proactive role in pleading Yediyurappa and BJP’s case, are expected to cast their shadow on the government.
But why did the Congress underperform, and so badly at that? Well, for one the party was too disorganised. It was working towards winning 90 seats, had already mentally geared up for a coalition set-up. This is why it did not take the JD(S) head-on. S.M. Krishna’s late entry also did not help. Most senior leaders felt that he had come to steal their thunder and hence a ‘cold war-like situation’ prevailed till almost the end.
Even as the BJP savours its first southern victory, party leaders admit the rest of the south—Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala—even now look impregnable. Still, it has a foot in the door now, and perhaps a lot more ‘mainstreaming’ will help the party in its forward march from Bangalore.
