Musharraf’s frustration echoes the feelings of urban Pakistanis as reflected in the Gallup-Outlook opinion poll: 79 per cent favoured the resolution of the Kashmir problem before Indo-Pak relations can be normalised. Can New Delhi satisfy Musharraf and his countrymen?
No, say senior Indian officials, claiming that discussing Kashmir with Pakistan at this juncture would be akin to putting the cart before the horse. "In today’s environment, any discussion on Kashmir will lead to zero results. Any result, in fact, will be counter-productive." As establishment Delhi sees it, the road to any discussion on Kashmir should be paved with confidence-building measures before the political class even thinks of travelling down it.
Appropriate conditions are considered necessary because, as the Gallup poll shows, Pakistanis are overwhelmingly opposed to even converting the LoC into the international border—a solution Indians might just about accept. Says a senior official: "Consequently, an environment has to be first created for people to make some compromises. It has to be a step-by-step, gradual, very gradual approach. We are nowhere near there yet."
Officials here feel Pakistan’s obsession with Kashmir has slowed down the peace process. A senior government official points out: "When the PM said he was prepared to restore relations at the level of high commissioners and restore air links on a reciprocal basis, the Pakistanis gave no traction on the air links aspect. We made a proposal for technical-level talks on June 24. Their response came only on July 30, saying we could meet only in August-end. How can Musharraf even suggest that we are moving slow? Take this bus thing. It’s a success. There’s a lot of demand. We have told them that if there is requirement, more buses can ply on the same day, in a convoy. Pakistan has refused."
The technical-level meeting to discuss air links is slated for August 27 and 28. And Indian officials are clear that the discussions will bear fruit only if Pakistan grants overflight rights. Says one of them: "It has to be a package deal. They can go take a jump if they can’t accept that. Ditto if they seek guarantees that overflight rights for Pakistan will not be disrupted. We will furnish no such guarantees."
When small hitches take such a long time to overcome, the big issue of Kashmir can’t be solved in a hurry. "Kashmir is not," explains another senior official patiently, "like some pre-cooked, instantly microwaveable dish that is ready to serve in a minute." Till the ’90s, officials point out, even Pakistani leaders preferred the Chinese model of resolving minor problems before turning attention to complex issues. For instance, the then Pakistan president, Zia-ul-Haq, had said in New Delhi on December 17, 1985, "We must first pay heed to problems which offer the chance of easier solutions and leave the knotty problems like Kashmir to a later date."
Official sources say a plausible sequence of events should have as its next step restoration of air links and overflight facilities. Then, logically, the current strength of 47 staffers in the respective missions should be enhanced. Till January next year, New Delhi would want to see the kind of economic concessions Pakistan grants before Vajpayee attends the SAARC meet there. All substantive measures will have to wait till then.
New Delhi will also keep tabs on Pak-inspired and sponsored violence. Infiltrations this July had leapfrogged to 230, up from a mere 99 this month last year and comparable to the 236 registered in July 2001. Officials also point out that there have been "10 suicide attacks" since Vajpayee announced his initiative. As a senior official says, "Right now the jehadi traffic is more than the Indian tourist traffic into Kashmir."
