It Pays To Wage War

It is deja vu all over again, never mind the decision of US President George W. Bush to waive the sanctions imposed on Pakistan over the last decade. Once again Pakistan is being used as a frontline state for American interests; once again there is a military government in Islamabad offering its services to facilitate American military action inside Afghanistan; and once again, millions of Afghans are fleeing to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. As Islamabad counts its blessings, and as generals hope to cash in on Washington's decision to waive sanctions, there are many who are haunted by the nightmare of gun-running, drug smuggling and a new brand of jehadis operating in Pakistan with impunity.

Indeed, the question people ask is: will the removal of sanctions and promise of assistance balance out the debilitating effects of Islamabad supporting the US in Afghanistan? The generals aren't answering, busy as they are at making an inventory of military equipment and spares they desperately need. Says a former army officer, "It would be in the interest of the western world to see a strengthened Pakistan army which does not remain under pressure from the Indians. It is certainly an overdue step. A balancing act would mean that there would be peace in the region and threats from well-armed militant groups which, of late, had had a free reign would be restrained."

But others would caution the military regime against weaving grandiose dreams. Says ex-finance minister and pml leader Sartaj Aziz, "If the proposed military action becomes intense and long, the negative impact of the regional turmoil can far outweigh the positive effects of the removal of sanctions."

Yet, there's no denying that the waiver has strengthened Gen Pervez Musharraf. Japan has already committed $40 million to Pakistan and the US seems prepared to reschedule the $600 million Pakistan owes it. Ditto the imf on its loan. More importantly, the new scenario lets Musharraf focus on his economic agenda.

Foreign minister Abdul Sattar though cautions: "We're supporting the international community in its war against terrorism not for the sake of some economic bargains. But economic issues have to be addressed. The current political and economic situation has seen Pakistan's exports suffering, risk insurance cost has risen and airline shipment charges have gone too high, creating serious implications for the economy."

So, will the waiver enable Musharraf to calm down those vociferously opposed to his new Afghan policy? These concessions mean little to the people until the government manages to ease the crushing cost-of-living burden they reel under. Nearly 34 per cent of Pakistan's population lives below the poverty line and the rate of unemployment is 10 per cent. Says economist Sultan Ahmed, "Immediately, the government has to increase employment avenues, reduce the pervasive poverty and spend far more on development, particularly on infrastructure. It has to invest in the 20 mega projects Musharraf has identified for priority action. Unless adequate steps are taken in these varied directions, the economy cannot be made less vulnerable or stronger, and won't be able to withstand external shocks or pressures."

At least radical Islamists are not impressed by Washington's generosity. Jamaat-e-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed says, "I wouldn't say that sanctions have been lifted. Instead, I would say sanctions have been imposed on us. By threatening us that either we are with them (the US) or against them, the West has deprived us of our freedom. "

Economic assistance and debt rescheduling, some experts point out, will be more than neutralised by the influx of Afghan refugees (see story on page 54). Besides the problem of feeding and providing them shelter, the refugees could exacerbate the existing tension in nwfp and Baluchistan.

As Pakistan bargains for its support to the US, and as foreign money pours into its coffers, one thing is sure: it would take years for the benefits of this munificence to filter down to people. Till then, Pakistan would have to live dangerously.