Vote, Me Worry?

On October 10, Pakistan will begin yet another tryst with democracy. It's three years to this month when General Pervez Musharraf had ousted the popular government of Nawaz Sharif. It's on this day the world will witness what it has never before: people coming out to vote in what Musharraf calls a 'sustainable democracy' —decidedly a queer system where a military dictator first declares himself president through a referendum, then amends the constitution to disqualify towering political figures from contesting elections, and ultimately renders the future popular government subservient to his office.

That the general's sustainable democracy doesn't have soul is palpable in the streets of Pakistan: there are no massive rallies, no excitement at choosing a people's government, no thrill of watching a leader sway a throng with his or her rhetoric. It makes you ask: will Pakistanis come out in substantial numbers to exercise their franchise?

They, though, might still troop out on October 10, and in numbers good enough to spark another controversy. For the jury is out on the magical abilities of the Chief Election Commission, who only months back handed out an incredible victory to President Musharraf in the infamous referendum. The result had even an embarrassed Musharraf describe it as the lowest point of his three-year rule.

But first, a few statistics. The National Assembly (NA), or the Lower House, now has 342 seats—272 of these will witness direct elections, the remaining 72 are reserved for women and the minorities. Political parties are to nominate women for the 60 seats reserved for them: each party will be allocated seats from the women's quota in proportion to the votes it polls nationally. Thus, if party A polls 50 per cent of the votes on October 10, it will bag an additional 30 women seats. A party, however, must secure at least 10 per cent of the total seats to qualify for a share in the women's quota. The minorities will vote twice in the 10 constituencies reserved for them—once for the general candidates; the second time to choose a minority candidate.

You could say this is a commendable method of ensuring that smaller parties—and women and minorities—are represented in the NA. But the mushrooming of small entities could also intensify the imminent jockeying for power post-October 10. Says former information minister Mushahid Hussain, "For Pakistan, the key question is whether the elections will bring about stability, resulting in a genuine rather than a sham democracy. Instability and uncertainty have been the hallmarks of Pakistan's political structure for the greater part of well over a quarter of a century now."

Linked to this is the question: will Pakistan have free and fair polls? Most here believe the military regime will ensure that the NA is hung. With no single party constituting a majority on its own, the military establishment can then nominate its own candidate as prime minister and muster support for him. A pliable PM precludes confrontation between him and the president.

No wonder all eyes are on the party disparagingly referred to as the King's Party. You would have thought as a concept this would have withered away in the early stages of democracy's evolution. But, in Pakistan, it still flourishes under the nomenclature of the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam), or PML(Q), a breakaway faction of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, now abbreviated as PML(N). The king's party is led by Mian Azhar, a former Punjab governor, who in the latter part of Sharif's tenure became his steadfast opponent. Azhar was anointed chief of the PML(Q) with support from the chowdhuries of Gujrat, Chowdhury Shujjat, a former interior minister, and his cousin Pervez Ellahi, a former speaker of the Punjab assembly.This isn't a party of dummy politicians incapable of winning on their own. The PML(Q) is strong in Punjab; many of its candidates have worked the local patronage system, leading to regular returns to Parliament.

Of the 272 general seats, the PML(Q) hopes to win 120, of course with some assistance from the military regime. Punjab governor Gen Khalid Maqbool has been busy inaugurating civic projects in the constituencies of PML(Q) candidates, a tried and tested method of pulling in votes. The party's only problem—as also Musharraf's—is that it has little presence beyond the Punjab province. Intelligence agencies believe the party can touch the three-figure mark but most poll pundits feel it will just about huff and puff to 80-odd seats.

And what about the prospects of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)? Some say the party is stuck, the charisma of Benazir Bhutto no longer available to sway voters. Ironically, ppp workers are blaming her for the constraints, arguing that she ought to have returned to Pakistan, risked arrest and generated a sympathy wave in favour of the party. Some even claim she has kept away from Pakistan in return for Musharraf allowing her party to contest the election. (Convicted in corruption cases, her party, under the new electoral laws, would have been disqualified as she's its chairperson for life.)

Fighting elections under a new name, PPP Parliamentarian (PPPP), and a new leader, Amin Fahim, it has been tipped to emerge as the single largest party in the pre-poll survey conducted by BBCUrdu.com. But observers feel even the pppp can at best notch up 80 seats. Considering that the ppp under Benazir bagged the same number in the last general elections, a repeat of this performance could underscore her irrelevance in Pakistani politics and embolden Fahim to break free from the Bhutto stranglehold. This has sparked speculation among a section of the pppp that Bhutto's children, Bilawal and Bhaktawar, might address rallies in the provinces, not only to boost the party's chances but also to keep intact the umbilical chord linking the family to the party.

Meanwhile, the split in the PML has debilitated the Sharif faction or the PML(N), with its turf in Punjab considerably eroded. Its performance wouldn't be considered below expected levels were it to emerge as the third largest. Imran Khan's Tehrik-e-Insaf still remains a paper tiger. Bristling against the Khan's criticism, the two chowdhuries of Gujrat have deployed their considerable clout to ensure he loses from both Swat and Mianwalli. Imran, however, can derive some solace—and hope—from the bbc poll which says a large number of women in his constituencies favour him. He also came in fourth in the likely PMs list.

Musharraf's political calculations, however, could go awry if the Muttahida Majli-e-Amal (mma), a conglomerate of six religious parties, were to notch up impressive victories. The mma is expected to gain not only from the combined strength of the religious parties but also from the anti-America and pro-Taliban sentiments in the North West Frontier Provinces and urban Sindh. In Karachi, the mma is locked in a bloody battle against the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (mqm), and this election could witness the Jamaat-e-Islami staging a comeback in urban centres here.

Post-election, the independents could also play a crucial role in government formation. Many feel those independents assigned the crescent symbol are mostly ex-ministers and establishment lackeys—popularly considered the B-team of the government. The only silver lining to the October 10 election is the unprecedented presence of women candidates. For the 272 general seats, 2,098 women are in the fray. Since the new law disallows non-graduate candidates, most of them are also educated.

Political analyst Mohamad Waseem, a professor at the Qaid-e-Azam University, describes well the most likely post-election scenario. "The 2002 electoral profile can most probably be defined by a hung parliament as its core, with three mainstream groupings, including the ppp and the two PMLs. However, there may not be an open-ended competition for coalition partners as per the standard parliamentary practice. Musharraf has publicly committed himself to keeping the ppp and the PML(N) out of office. This situation has a grave potential for creating a political crisis, especially if the PPP and the PML(N) decide to join hands on the floor of Parliament." Back to instability then.