Singing Bali Ho

Not too long ago, it was a hip and happening place. Then, night life on Legian Street in Bali's Kuta locality would begin at sunset and continue till dawn. Foreigners walking down the bustling street would be harassed by pimps and pushers. All this changed on October 12, 2002. In the worst-ever terror attack since 9/11, over 200 people were killed in a car bomb explosion in two of its liveliest night clubs. Tourists shied away from Bali, Legian went silent.

On the eve of the first anniversary of the Bali bombing, the street was slowly lumbering to normalcy. The crowds, said the cabbies, were still thin, but night life was picking up. At the Espresso Bar, tourists were swaying to live jazz at 2 am. Across the street, the owner of Paddy's Bar, which was bombed in 2002, was busy running a new pub by the same name. Shops were selling T-shirts that read "F*** Terrorists"; at the site of the bombing, message boards flashed "Osama Don't Surf".

The Bali bombing, however, has impacted the psyche of nations like Thailand and Malaysia, hammering it into their heads that terrorism is a global and local reality. That's why it wasn't difficult for New Delhi to convince the 10 ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) members to sign a joint declaration to combat terrorism. The document was initialled this week during Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's three-day visit to Bali to attend the ninth ASEAN summit.

Indian diplomats were quick to hail the declaration as a success. They claimed it will strengthen India's position, especially in the United Nations where a resolution on terrorism hasn't been adopted because of the insistence of several nations of the Islamic bloc to define terrorism and detail its root causes. With ASEAN comprising several of these nations, the new agreement on terrorism would bolster New Delhi's thesis that terrorism is terrorism, irrespective of the root causes.

Hints of support and solidarity on the terrorism issue came during the meeting between Vajpayee and Filipino leader Gloria Arroyo on the second day of his three-day visit. Arroyo accepted the basic argument: there was no point in trying to detail out aspects of terrorism, declaring, "When we see it, we know it." The agreement could also help isolate Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. "Any agreement with a group of nations that excludes Pakistan can only be good for India," said a senior foreign ministry official.

Perhaps terrorism, Pakistan and Kashmir were not on the PM's mind as he savoured his favourite Chinese dishes on his first night in Bali (October 6). It was probably China he was thinking about. Vajpayee's Bali visit could inaugurate a new era in Indo-Sino relations, where the two countries seek to establish a rapport and de-emotionalise, if not resolve outright, border disputes, and yet compete aggressively on the economic front.

One of the most important economic battleground for the two countries will be in the ASEAN region. Post-Cancun, where developing nations led by India and China failed to come to an agreement with the developed world at the multilateral wto level, it's in the interest of both New Delhi and Beijing to carry forward the cohesion in regional alliances. It's to East Asia that India must look because it finds it difficult to join hands, for a variety of reasons, with its immediate neighbours in South Asia.

In Bali, India did sign a "framework agreement" to establish a free trade area with the ASEAN group within the next decade. Foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal proudly noted that the agreement was signed in a "record" 10 months. He added that while it was unfair to make comparisons, China took three years to do the same. What he didn't mention, though, is that China is way ahead of India as far as trade linkages with ASEAN nations is concerned.The quantum of Sino-ASEAN trade was a mammoth $55 billion last year; it was just $12-13 billion for India. Again, China has targeted a trade level of $100 billion by 2005; India hopes to touch the $30-billion figure by 2007.

Obviously, India wishes to respond to, if not match, China's growing economic influence in its backyard. An Indian official, who was privy to discussions Vajpayee had with several global leaders and his own team, said the 'China factor' is an important impulse in New Delhi's efforts to improve its relationship with ASEAN countries. But Indian diplomats tried to play down this factor saying China's strength in the region is a reality New Delhi has to deal with.

What was, however, evident was that both countries were eager to accommodate the apprehensions of the ASEAN nations. For example, during his speech at the ASEAN Business & Investment Summit on October 7, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao stated that a Sino-ASEAN free trade agreement, which takes off on January 1, 2004, would benefit the East Asian nations more than China. Experts admitted it will indeed allow ASEAN members to increase their exports to China, at least in the short run.

Wen went a step further to say that Beijing was willing to be "benevolent" and behave like a "good big brother" to sort out disputes with its neighbours, including several ASEAN nations. To show its intentions, Beijing officially accepted Sikkim as a part of India. The official website of China's foreign ministry (www.fmprc. gov.cn) no longer lists Sikkim as a separate country. Wen also met Vajpayee separately—the discussions were described by the Indian side as "excellent" and "striking"—and indicated that Beijing would not shy away from the commitments made during the Indian PM's visit to China in June this year.

India made a concerted bid to woo the ASEAN members. Vajpayee announced that designated airlines of ASEAN members could start a daily flight to Indian metros on a non-reciprocal basis. (Reciprocity is the norm here). He talked of a need to develop high-profile, cross-border infrastructure projects like roads and rail lines, and floated the idea of a regional motor rally (starting from Assam and ending in Vietnam through Laos and Cambodia).

New Delhi's generosity was demonstrated through another measure: the "framework agreement" on trade lists out several concessions to the economically weaker clmv (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) countries, and the Philippines. These five nations have been given an extra five years to lower their import tariffs (by 2016, instead of 2011 for the remaining members). According to Indian officials, the Philippines was also worried that a number of Indian products (like pharmaceuticals) would be swamping its market in a free trade regime.

Other ASEAN nations too were acutely anxious about their economic relationships with China. Consequently, they wish to establish links with both New Delhi and Beijing to counterbalance the respective influence of the two countries in the region. As several East Asian diplomats repeatedly said, "An aircraft (ASEAN) needs two wings (India and China) to fly. And each wing has to be equally strong to balance the plane."

But the individual wings are only interested in swerving the plane in their desired direction. And both are using arguments of economic advantages as well as cultural proximity to achieve this objective. When foreign minister Yashwant Sinha came for 'The India Evening', organised by the cii on October 6, he was wearing the traditional Indonesian batik shirt. There he talked about how Asia could possibly develop a new model of economic growth—"Capitalism with a compassionate face".

Even Vajpayee wore a batik shirt for the dinner Indonesian president Megawati Sukarnoputri hosted on October 7.Earlier in the afternoon, he had visited the Vishnu-Garuda Kanchan Park, where statues of Hindu god Vishnu and the mythological bird Garuda are being constructed. (Balinese authorities claim that the Vishnu idol would be one of the highest in the world.) Clearly, the PM's aim was to send the right signals in Bali, a predominantly Hindu society in Muslim-dominated Indonesia. Such wooing of the ASEAN members was also resorted to by China's Wen and Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Vajpayee projected himself as the leader with a vision, a vision encompassing the entire Asian mass, and not just ASEAN. Here he spoke about the possibility of a 14-nation common market, which would include the 10 ASEAN members, China, South Korea and Japan. Both he and his external affairs counterpart repeatedly emphasised that this century could be 'Asia's century' and that it was for the respective countries to get together and translate that possibility into reality. In the past few decades, India has missed many a global bus. This time, it wishes to drive one, rather than just be a passenger. We must wait and see if there are any takers for this global ride.