Dear Lt.Gen.Hayden,
"On May 1, 2003, President Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln aboard an S-3B Viking jet, emerged from the aircraft in full flight gear, and proceeded to "press flesh," as The Washington Post put it, as he shook hands and hugged crew members in front of the cameras. Later that day, Bush delivered a nationally televised speech from the deck of the Abraham Lincoln in which he declared that "major combat operations in Iraq have ended," all the while standing under a banner reading: "Mission Accomplished." Despite lingering questions over the continued violence in Iraq, the failure to locate weapons of mass destruction, and the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, as well as evidence that Bush may have shirked his responsibilities in the Texas Air National Guard (TANG) during the Vietnam War, the print and televised media fawned over Bush's "grand entrance" and the image of Bush as the "jet pilot" and the "Fighter".
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So wrote on April 27,2006, a US website called MediaMatters For America. Mr Bush's premature bragging that the US hadaccomplished its mission in Iraq and had emerged victorious in the war hashaunted him and his advisers till now. So did the earlier claim ofVice-President Dick Cheney before the start of the war that the invading UStroops would be welcomed by the people of Iraq as "liberators".Thousands of American troops have already died and more are dying. Thousands ofIraqi civilians have died and more are dying. Some "welcome", this!
On October 7, 2001, the US launched its "Operation Enduring Freedom"in Afghanistan.By the middle of 2002, we were told that the US troops haddefeated the Taliban and badly disrupted the command and control of Al Qaeda. In2004, the Taliban came back as if it had risen from its proclaimed grave andstarted hitting back at the US-led coalition troops in eastern and southernAfghanistan. The NATO forces are still struggling to prevail over the Taliban.
Till 2000, there was no suicide terrorism in Afghanistan. There was one in 2001which killed Ahmed Shah Masood. Since 2004, instances of suicide terrorism inAfghanistan started going up. There were 137 last year. The Taliban's capabilityto hit at the NATO forces now extends to even Kabul. President Hamid Karzai owesit to the grace of Allah that he survived the attempt to kill him during anational parade at Kabul on April 26,2008. Neither the Afghan intelligence northe CIA had any inkling of its plans to kill him. If Allah had not gone to hisrescue, there might have been total instability in Afghanistan now.
Till 2006, Pakistan had an average of six acts of suicide terrorism per annum.Ithad 56 last year. It has already had 18 till now this year. In 2007, there were193 acts of suicide terrorism in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region in which 195suicide volunteers killed themselves. One act of suicide terrorism inAfghanistan was jointly staged by three volunteers.
Against this background, one read with some amazement your claim in yourinterview to the Washington Post (May 30, 2008) that Al Qaeda has beenstrategically defeated and that the "war" against Al Qaeda is more orless over. The Washington Post has quoted you as saying: "Onbalance, we are doing pretty well.Near strategic defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq.Near strategic defeat for Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for AlQaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lotof the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam.The ability to kill andcapture key members of Al Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance -- even intheir best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."
The Washington Post wrote: "Since the start of the year, he said, Al-Qaeda's global leadership has lost three senior officers, including two whosuccumbed "to violence," an apparent reference to Predator strikesthat killed terrorist leaders Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi inPakistan. He also cited a successful blow against "training activity"in the region but offered no details. "Those are the kinds of things thatdelay and disrupt Al Qaeda's planning," Hayden said."
Even as you were giving the interview to the Washington Post to mark thecompletion of your two years as the Director of the CIA, a suicidebomber--believed to be from Al Qaeda or one of its associates-- was taking upposition in Islamabad to stage an act of suicide terrorism against the DanishEmbassy on June 2,2008. Neither the CIA nor the Pakistani or Afghan intelligencehad any inkling of their plans.
You claim that your Predator aircraft have killed two important operatives of AlQaeda in Pakistan's tribal region. Yes, true. But you don't mention that yourPredator aircraft have also killed over 200 young children in the tribal regiondue to wrong intelligence and targeting. Even as you were giving your"Mission Accomplished" interview to the Washington Post, Lt.Gen.Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani, of the Pakistan Army, who had served in Pakistan'sInter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was telling the Geo TV of Pakistan in aninterview as follows: "Today, everybody believed that Gen Musharraf wasfighting the American war on the soil of Pakistan and we are paying for thattoday. Musharraf's departure from power was close at hand. The President shouldnot have given in to US threat in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy. The ISI was usedto commit wrong acts. I was in the ISI and advised against such acts but myadvice fell on deaf ears. As a result today, Musharraf is the most unpopularPresident. Suicide attacks that were beyond imagination before 9/11 aredifficult to control now. I am not a supporter of suicide attacks, but thesereflect an easy reaction that cannot be stopped by anyone. It was as a reactionto his policies that suicide attacks started in the country. Force was used inSouth and North Waziristan and 80 students were killed in a Bajaur Madrassa inan American operation. What was the crime of these students?"
For every innocent child and woman killed by your Predator aircraft, two or moresuicide bombers are born. Musharraf, whom you projected as your frontline allyin the "war" against terrorism, is the most despised man in Pakistantoday. One does not know how long he will last in power. Mr Asif Zardari, theleader of the Pakistan People's Party, recently described him as a relic of thepast. The people of Pakistan look upon him as an American stooge who let himselfbe used by the CIA to kill Muslims and to pick up Pakistanis in dozens, if nothundreds, and hand them over to the CIA without following the due process oflaw. Nobody knows what happened to many of them.
President Karzai hardly knows Afghanistan outside Kabul. He spends his timeglobe-trotting and is rarely able to travel in his country. There is moreanti-US anger in the Islamic world today than in the past. "Publicity isthe oxygen of terrorism," said Mrs Margaret Thatcher, when she was theBritish Prime Minister and banned any reference to the Irish Republican Army inthe British radio and television. More than publicity, anger is the oxygen ofany terrorism-- jihadi or non-jihadi.
It is this anger, which drove about 200 young Pakistani and Afghan Muslims totake to suicide terrorism last year. It is this anger which is behind jihaditerrorism--be it in Iraq or Afghanistan or Somalia or Algeria or elsewhere. Itis this anger which has been behind the acts of jihadi terrorism which we havebeen having in India from time to time.
Whereas in India, the anger is largely due to domestic reasons, in the Islamicworld the anger is due to the manner in which the US has been waging itsso-called war against terrorism in general and Al Qaeda in particular. It isthis anger which has been driving more and more young Muslim boys to take tosuicide terrorism. As I have repeatedly pointed out in my articles, Al Qaeda isnot recruiting volunteers. Young Muslims, angered by the manner in which the UShas been waging its so-called war, have been going to Al Qaeda and itsassociates and volunteering themselves for suicide missions.
The Madrid bombers of March 2004 and the London bombers of July 2005 were notrecruited by Al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden. They volunteered their servicesangered by the US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan. The London and Glasgowbombers of June,2007--one of them an Indian Muslim-- were not recruited by AlQaeda or bin Laden. They volunteered their services due to anti-US anger. AdamGadahan, the American convert to Islam, who used to head As-Sahab, Al Qaeda'spsywar and propaganda division, was not recruited by Al Qaeda. He went toAfghanistan and volunteered his services. The German converts to Islam who weretrained by the Islamic Jihad Group (ISG) in the Federally-Administered TribalAreas (FATA) of Pakistan, were not recruited by Al Qaeda. They went to FATA andvolunteered their services.
The media has reported that you feel that Al Qaeda is on the retreat becausethere has been no repeat of 9/11 in the US homeland, there has been no repeat ofJuly, 2005, in the UK and because it could not capture power in Saudi Arabia.You had a major act of jihadi terrorism in the US homeland in February,1993,when some jihadis tried to blow up the New York World Centre. You did nottighten up physical security thereafter in the US homeland till 9/11. Despitethis, it took Al Qaeda more than eight years to stage the 9/11 strikes. It takesa long time for a jihadi group from the Islamic world to carry out a successfulstrike in the US because it is thousands of kms away from the Islamic world andit has immense human and material resources. Moreover, Al Qaeda will strike inthe US once again only when it feels that it has the potential and capabilityfor another spectacular strike in the US. It is not interested in carrying outnot so spectacular strikes in the US just as the jihadis have been carrying outin India.
You overlook that the jihadis totally took the British intelligence by surprisewhen they tried to stage a terrorist strike in June in London and Glasgow. Theirattempts failed not because the British intelligence was alert but because themobile telephones, which they had planned to use as triggers malfunctioned. Ifthey had functioned properly, there might have been another July, 2005.
As regards their failure to capture power in Saudi Arabia , insurgents seekterritorial control and go after political power. Terrorists don't. Bringingabout the exit of US troops from Saudi Arabia was one of the aims of Al Qaeda.Damaging its oil production was another in order to cause serious damage toWestern economy. Capture of power was not. Your troops have left Saudi Arabia.Al Qaeda was hoping to cause huge increases in oil prices in the world byattacking the Saudi oil production facilities. When oil prices are racingtowards US $ 140 per barrel, threatening to create an economic chaos in theworld, where is the need for an Al Qaeda operation to achieve this? They are notgoing to sacrifice their precious suicide bombers to achieve something which theUS has already achieved for them.
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There is no such thing as victory or defeat over a terrorist organisation.Terrorist organisations--jihadi or non-jihadi-- are not militarily defeated.They are made to wither away by weakening their motivation, damaging theircapability and denying them popular support. To achieve this, two things areessential-- firm, but balanced--not disproportionate-- counter-terrorismoperations and measures for the containment and reduction of anger.
In my view, the US is not yet in sight of achieving either of this objective.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B. Raman.
Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat,
Govt. of India.
