Molten Lead

JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, Aljazeera’s Arabic channel was reporting on events inGaza. Suddenly the camera was pointing upwards towards the dark sky. The screenwas pitch black. Nothing could be seen, but there was a sound to be heard: thenoise of airplanes, a frightening, a terrifying droning.

It was impossible not to think about the tens of thousands of Gazan children whowere hearing that sound at that moment, cringing with fright, paralyzed by fear,waiting for the bombs to fall.

"ISRAEL MUST defend itself against the rockets that are terrorizing ourSouthern towns," the Israeli spokesmen explained. "Palestinians must respondto the killing of their fighters inside the Gaza Strip," the Hamas spokesmendeclared.

As a matter of fact, the cease-fire did not collapse, because there was no realcease-fire to start with. The main requirement for any cease-fire in the GazaStrip must be the opening of the border crossings. There can be no life in Gazawithout a steady flow of supplies. But the crossings were not opened, except fora few hours now and again. The blockade on land, on sea and in the air against amillion and a half human beings is an act of war, as much as any dropping ofbombs or launching of rockets. It paralyzes life in the Gaza Strip: eliminatingmost sources of employment, pushing hundreds of thousands to the brink ofstarvation, stopping most hospitals from functioning, disrupting the supply ofelectricity and water.

Those who decided to close the crossings – under whatever pretext – knewthat there is no real cease-fire under these conditions.

That is the main thing. Then there came the small provocations which weredesigned to get Hamas to react. After several months, in which hardly any Qassamrockets were launched, an army unit was sent into the Strip "in order todestroy a tunnel that came close to the border fence". From a purely militarypoint of view, it would have made more sense to lay an ambush on our side of thefence. But the aim was to find a pretext for the termination of the cease-fire,in a way that made it plausible to put the blame on the Palestinians. Andindeed, after several such small actions, in which Hamas fighters were killed,Hamas retaliated with a massive launch of rockets, and – lo and behold – thecease-fire was at an end. Everybody blamed Hamas.

WHAT WAS THE AIM? Tzipi Livni announced it openly: to liquidate Hamas rule inGaza. The Qassams served only as a pretext.

Liquidate Hamas rule? That sounds like a chapter out of "The March ofFolly". After all, it is no secret that it was the Israeli government whichset up Hamas to start with. When I once asked a former Shin-Bet chief, YaakovPeri, about it, he answered enigmatically: "We did not create it, but we didnot hinder its creation." 

For years, the occupation authorities favored the Islamic movement in theoccupied territories. All other political activities were rigorously suppressed,but their activities in the mosques were permitted. The calculation was simpleand naive: at the time, the PLO was considered the main enemy, Yasser Arafat wasthe current Satan. The Islamic movement was preaching against the PLO andArafat, and was therefore viewed as an ally.

With the outbreak of the first intifada in 1987, the Islamic movement officiallyrenamed itself Hamas (Arabic initials of "Islamic Resistance Movement") andjoined the fight. Even then, the Shin-Bet took no action against them for almosta year, while Fatah members were executed or imprisoned in large numbers. Onlyafter a year, were Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and his colleagues also arrested. 

Since then the wheel has turned. Hamas has now become the current Satan, and thePLO is considered by many in Israel almost as a branch of the Zionistorganization. The logical conclusion for an Israeli government seeking peacewould have been to make wide-ranging concessions to the Fatah leadership: endingof the occupation, signing of a peace treaty, foundation of the State ofPalestine, withdrawal to the 1967 borders, a reasonable solution of the refugeeproblem, release of all Palestinian prisoners. That would have arrested the riseof Hamas for sure. 

But logic has little influence on politics. Nothing of this sort happened. Onthe contrary, after the murder of Arafat, Ariel Sharon declared that MahmoudAbbas, who took his place, was a "plucked chicken". Abbas was not allowedthe slightest political achievement. The negotiations, under American auspices,became a joke. The most authentic Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, was sent toprison for life. Instead of a massive prisoner release, there were petty andinsulting "gestures".

Abbas was systematically humiliated, Fatah looked like an empty shell and Hamaswon a resounding victory in the Palestinian election – the most democraticelection ever held in the Arab world. Israel boycotted the elected government.In the ensuing internal struggle, Hamas assumed direct control over the GazaStrip.

And now, after all this, the government of Israel decided to "liquidate Hamasrule in Gaza" – with blood, fire and columns of smoke.

THE OFFICIAL NAME of the war is "Cast Lead", two words from a children’ssong about a Hanukkah toy.

It would be more accurate to call it "the the Election War".

In the past, too, military action has been taken during election campaigns.Menachem Begin bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor during the 1981 campaign. WhenShimon Peres claimed that this was an election gimmick, Begin cried out at hisnext rally: "Jews, do you believe that I would send our brave boys to theirdeath or, worse, to be taken prisoner by human animals, in order to win anelection?" Begin won.

Peres is no Begin. When, during the 1996 election campaign, he ordered theinvasion of Lebanon (operation "Grapes of Wrath"), everybody was convincedthat he had done it for electoral gain. The war was a failure and Peres lost theelections and Binyamin Netanyahu came to power. 

Barak and Tzipi Livni are now resorting to the same old trick. According to thepolls, Barak’s predicted election result rose within 48 hours by five Knessetseats. About 80 dead Palestinians for each seat. But it is difficult to walk ona pile of dead bodies. The success may evaporate in a minute if the war comes tobe considered by the Israeli public as a failure. For example, if the rocketscontinue to hit Beersheba, or if the ground attack leads to heavy Israelicasualties.

The timing was chosen meticulously from another angle too. The attack startedtwo days after Christmas, when American and European leaders are on holidayuntil after New Year. The calculation: even if somebody wanted to try and stopthe war, no one would give up his holiday. That ensured several days free fromoutside pressures.

Another reason for the timing: these are George Bush’s last days in the WhiteHouse. This blood-soaked moron could be expected to support the warenthusiastically, as indeed he did. Barack Obama has not yet entered office andhad a ready made pretext for keeping silent: "there is only one President".The silence does not bode well for the term of president Obama.


THE MAIN LINE was: not to repeat the mistakes of Lebanon War II. This wasendlessly repeated on all the news programs and talk shows.

This does not change the fact: the Gaza War is an almost exact replica of thesecond Lebanon war.

The strategic concept is the same: to terrorize the civilian population byunremitting attacks from the air, sowing death and destruction. This poses nodanger to the pilots, since the Palestinians have no anti-aircraft weapons atall. The calculation: if the entire life-supporting infrastructure in the Stripis utterly destroyed and total anarchy ensues, the population will rise up andoverthrow the Hamas regime. Mahmoud Abbas will then ride back into Gaza on theback of Israeli tanks. 

In Lebanon, this calculation did not work out. The bombed population, includingthe Christians, rallied behind Hizbullah, and Hassan Nasrallah became the heroof the Arab world. Something similar will probably happen this time, too.Generals are experts on using weapons and moving troops, not on mass psychology.

Some time ago I wrote that the Gaza blockade was a scientific experimentdesigned to find out how much one can starve a population and turn its life intohell before they break. This experiment was conducted with the generous help ofEurope and the US. Up to now, it did not succeed. Hamas became stronger and therange of the Qassams became longer. The present war is a continuation of theexperiment by other means. 

It may be that the army will "have no alternative" but to re-conquer theGaza Strip because there is no other way to stop the Qassams – except comingto an agreement with Hamas, which is contrary to government policy. When theground invasion starts, everything will depend on the motivation andcapabilities of the Hamas fighters vis-à-vis the Israeli soldiers. Nobody canknow what will happen.


DAY AFTER DAY, night after night, Aljazeera’s Arabic channel broadcasts theatrocious pictures: heaps of mutilated bodies, tearful relatives looking fortheir dear ones among the dozens of corpses spread out on the ground, a womanpulling her young daughter from under the rubble, doctors without medicinestrying to save the lives of the wounded. (The English-language Aljazeera, unlikeits Arab-language sister-station, has undergone an amazing about face,broadcasting only a sanitized picture and freely distributing Israeli governmentpropaganda. It would be interesting to know what happened there.)

Millions are seeing these terrible images, picture after picture, day after day.These images are imprinted on their minds forever: horrible Israel, abominableIsrael, inhuman Israel. A whole generation of haters. That is a terrible price,which we will be compelled to pay long after the other results of the war itselfhave been forgotten in Israel.

But there is another thing that is being imprinted on the minds of thesemillions: the picture of the miserable, corrupt, passive Arab regimes.

As seen by Arabs, one fact stands out above all others: the wall of shame.

For the million and a half Arabs in Gaza, who are suffering so terribly, theonly opening to the world that is not dominated by Israel is the border withEgypt. Only from there can food arrive to sustain life and medicaments to savethe injured. This border remains closed at the height of the horror. TheEgyptian army has blocked the only way for food and medicines to enter, whilesurgeons operate on the wounded without anesthetics.

Throughout the Arab world, from end to end, there echoed the words of HassanNasrallah: The leaders of Egypt are accomplices to the crime, they arecollaborating with the "Zionist enemy" in trying to break the Palestinianpeople. It can be assumed that he did not mean only Mubarak, but also all theother leaders, from the king of Saudi Arabia to the Palestinian President.Seeing the demonstrations throughout the Arab world and listening to theslogans, one gets the impression that their leaders seem to many Arabs patheticat best, and miserable collaborators at worst. 

This will have historic consequences. A whole generation of Arab leaders, ageneration imbued with the ideology of secular Arab nationalism, the successorsof Gamal Abd-al-Nasser, Hafez al-Assad and Yasser Arafat, may be swept from thestage. In the Arab space, the only viable alternative is the ideology of Islamicfundamentalism.

This war is a writing on the wall: Israel is missing the historic chance ofmaking peace with secular Arab nationalism. Tomorrow, it may be faced with auniformly fundamentalist Arab world, Hamas multiplied by a thousand.

MY TAXI DRIVER in Tel-Aviv the other day was thinking aloud: Why not call up thesons of the ministers and members of the Knesset, form them into a combat unitand send them off to head the coming ground attack on Gaza?