Memories Of The Surat Plague: What Can We Learn?

Because of its sheer sweep, most comparisons of COVID-19 have tended to reach back over a century to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918—similarly global in scale, and devastating in its effect. But we have a more proximate event to compare it with: the Surat plague of 1994.

Yes, the pneumonic plague that hit the September 1994 was hugely dissimilar on a couple of fundamental aspects: it was bacterial, and it was localised. But in the extreme peril it posed to humanity, and the massive disruption it caused to ordinary life, there are several points of analogy to the COVID-19 situation. And perhaps, lessons we could still learn.

The first point of similarity: the population-level effect meant that Surat saw what was, till then, the largest migration of people post-Partition. Almost 6 lakh people! Veteran Surat journalist Vikram Vakil recalls: “When first news of the plague started coming in, with reports of a possible quarantine, almost 6,00,000 people fled Surat using whatever means they could find. While there was no official lockdown or curfew, the bustling commercial city became a ghost city almost overnight.”

That feels eerily like the scenes we saw around March 24, when Prime Minister Modi announced the national lockdown. The same fears: among those who were running, and in their prospective destinations. “The Surat exodus sparked panic in neighbouring states, with checkpoints being set up in railway stations, airports and highways to screen the migrants. All cars with Surat plates (GJ5) were stopped at the border and checked. Paramilitary forces were deployed at some of these checkpoints,” recalls Vakil.

Other places were, of course, safe back then. With COVID-19, that exodus itself would cause the virus to migrate. We will have to await data to see how many people actually hit the highways in 2020—firstly to know if we surpassed the Surat figure, and then match it against the final map of infections.

The other big difference? Information flow. “Those were the days before the advent of social media and the internet, so rumours and panic ruled,” says Vakil. “Many newspapers carried exaggerated death tolls, sparking further panic. Tetracycline, an antibiotic for plague treatment, disappeared from chemist shops not just in Gujarat, but also Bombay and Delhi. Schools and public places were shut down in Surat and even in Delhi for about five days, while people stocked up on surgical masks and essential items. However, within days, the Surat administration started distributing the medicine and food to all remaining residents. Plague cases were identified, and antibiotics were given to everyone in the neighbourhood, regardless of whether they were infected or not.”

“Compared to the coronavirus now ravaging India, the plague toll ratio was far higher, with 56 deaths in Surat in about three or four days. However, a massive drive to kill rats and fleas, the two carriers of this deadly disease, helped bring the disease under control. Today, Surat is among the cleanest cities in the country,” he adds.

Plague is caused by infection with Yersinia pestis, a bacterium carried by rats and transmitted by fleas. When this bacteria enters the body through the bite of an infected flea or a cut or break in the skin, you get the bubonic plague, which leads to swollen and painful lymph nodes. If left untreated, pestis bacteria can accumulate in the bloodstream, leading to septic shock due to septicemic plague.

When this bacteria is inhaled and lodges in the lungs, you get pneumonic plague (which is what struck Surat) This is extremely contagious and can spread from person to person when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Symptoms include fever, headache, weakness and watery or bloody cough due to a pneumonic infection of the lungs. Without aggressive treatment with antibiotics, it is usually fatal. The plague and its aftermath cost the Indian economy over $600 million, and the stock market plummeted. Several nations imposed restrictions on travellers from India, particularly from Surat. Indians visiting Russia were subject to a six-day quarantine. Countries like the UAE suspended the import of agricultural goods from India, Tourism came to a halt, and even official visits by foreign dignitaries were rescheduled or cancelled.