Conflict With China Is Not Inevitable

I am happy to be here today to inaugurate this fifth Asian Security Conference being organized by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA). I commend the IDSA for organising this seminar on an annual basis. It is important that we look at the big picture in Asia and decipher long-term trends and their implications for the world as well as for us. I am delighted that a large, diverse and distinguished panel of scholars from India and abroad are joining this effort and I am certain these discussions will prove fruitful for all those gathered here today as well as for the Governments of the region. 

Ladies and gentlemen, it is widely accepted that the 21st century will be an Asian century. Let me therefore begin by asking what is it that makes Asia special. What makes Asia unique? 

Asia is the largest continent in the world both in terms of population as well as territory. It encompasses extraordinary diversity in terms of religion, race, ethnicity and culture. Each of its regions, whether they be the Gulf and West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia and North East Asia, all have distinctive characteristics that separate them from the others. Yet Asia has civilizational commonalties that seeks unity in its diversity. 

In 1940, Asia accounted for 60% of the world’s population and 19 percent of the world’s GDP. This changed to 57% of the world’s population and 37% of the world’s GDP by 1995. It is estimated that the Asian population will account for 55% of the world population and 57% of global GDP by 2025. Asia accounts for the world’s largest energy resources. The world’s fastest growing economies and markets are also within Asia. 

It is evident therefore that the fulcrum of political and economic activity is shifting in an inexorable manner towards Asia and away from the traditional centers of North America and Europe. 

What are the challenges which confront Asia today? Which of those are likely to persist in the coming decade? 

Poverty and disparity among and within nations is the fundamental challenge faced by Asia. Asian diversity is most acutely reflected in these differences in economic development within countries and in different parts of the continent. Nearly two thirds of the world’s poor live in Asia. Yet several Asian countries have become middle income or even developed countries in terms of per capita income. How to overcome economic backwardness and remove disparities remains the primary concern of most Asian countries. 

Similarly, the need to stem the overall rate of population growth and manage demographic changes, particularly phenomena such as migration and refugee flows is a priority for many countries. Some scholars have pointed out that the battles of the future may be battles over water. How to harness the water resources of the region to meet the requirements of its huge population is another issue of concern. 

Terrorism, as all of us are aware today, is a global phenomenon. Its roots, however, lie in Asia and there is virtually no corner of Asia unaffected by this scourge. Asia is the only part of the world which has been the victim of a nuclear attack. Yet, there are nations in Asia who resort to nuclear blackmail and openly brandish threats that they will use nuclear weapons. Proliferation is another major challenge that Asia confronts. Some of the most deliberate and well documented instances of nuclear and missile transfers have taken place in this region. It could be said that the risk of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups is the greatest in Asia, particularly in the immediate neighbourhood of India where it is possible to find the conjunction of authoritarian rule, religious fundamentalism, terrorism, drug trafficking and weapons of mass destruction. 

In much of the world, war between states has been replaced by war within states. Asia too mirrors this broad trend. Intra-state conflicts and proxy war has taken the place of open war and inter-state conflict. Non state actors, some with the direct backing of states and some operating on their own form important figures on Asia’s security landscape. By spreading violence and terror, they actively seek to undermine democracy, civil society and rule of law. Narco terrorism and trafficking in small arms is also a rapidly spreading and disturbing phenomenon. 

The Asian Security Conference this year focuses on China which carries the world’s largest population and is India’s biggest neighbour. The timing of this conference is particularly opportune for it follows the convening of the 16th Party Congress in China last November and the publication thereafter of the fourth Chinese White Paper on national defence last December. The distinguished scholars present here today will no doubt carefully assess the import of the deliberations of the Party Congress and analyse the contents of the White Paper. 

The rise of China is a phenomenon which has engaged the attention of scholars in many parts of world. There have been negative scenarios as well as positive scenarios outlined and I am sure that these will be discussed in the next few days. Often the conclusions drawn reflect personal convictions of the scholars concerned. In general, academics of the Realist school tend to see China as a potential hegemon in Asia - a country which seeks to throw the United States out of the region and declare a new Monroe Doctrine. Liberal scholars on the other hand see China as a positive force within Asia - a China which through its economic strength and constructive diplomacy contributes to the overall peace and stability of the region. 

The rise of India is similarly an issue which has attracted academic debate. There are many who see the emergence of India on the world stage as part of an inevitable and inexorable process of history. They look to India’s history and tradition of commitment to peace and non-violence, her success in institutionalizing democracy in the face of unparalleled challenges, her commitment to fostering a secular, diverse and plural society even as she strengthens her national unity, her rapidly growing economy, world class human resources and her leadership of developing countries as positive factors which would contribute to peace, stability and prosperity in the world. There are, however, others who see India as an ambitious and non status quo power seeking to break into the private club of major powers. 

Some analysts foresee in Asia a coming battle for supremacy between India and China. They talk of the inevitability of conflict owing to overlapping areas of influence between India and China and the determination of both countries to emerge as major powers on the world stage. Let me debunk these theories completely and state with full conviction that India neither pursues nor makes policy towards China based on the belief that conflict between the two is inevitable. 

It is true that there are important differences between India and China. Some of the wounds inflicted by the conflict of 1962 have been slow to heal and the scars have not fully disappeared. Reliable and widespread reports of Chinese nuclear and missile proliferation to Pakistan cause deep concern. The Chinese position on issues such as Sikkim and India’s candidature to a permanent seat in the UN Security Council sows doubts. There is also a sense of disappointment over the pace of improvement in the relationship. 

Let me however assure everyone gathered here that India’s approach to relations with China is and will remain forward looking and infused with a sense of optimism. India’s policies will not be based on fear of Chinese power nor envy of China’s economic achievements. They will be based on the conviction that a prosperous India is inevitable. So is a strong and prosperous China. It is, therefore, logical, reasonable and in the enlightened self-interest of both that the two countries learn not just to live with each other but also address differences and build on what is common. Further, both India and China are too large and too strong to be contained or cowed down by any country, including each other. 

A substantial measure of success has been achieved by now in the endeavour to establish mutual understanding between India and China. Despite the fact that the India-China border spans thousands of kilometers of territory and there exist material differences in perception, the two countries have been successful in maintaining relative peace and tranquility for over twenty-five years. This achievement should in no way be underestimated. Moreover, the process of clarifying the Line of Actual Control along the India-China border based on the institutional framework provided by the important agreements of 1993 and 1996 is making progress. 

India-China relations have diversified and a series of dialogue mechanisms are in place including on subjects such as counter terrorism, security issues, policy planning and the boundary question. Functional delegations to learn from each other’s experiences are crisscrossing each other’s countries. High level visits are also being regularly exchanged. Premier Zhu Rongji visited India early last year and Prime Minister Vajpayee will visit China this year. Both countries realize, however, that much more ground remains to be traversed. 

The civilisational and cultural ties between the two countries provide India and China with the foundation to build a strong relationship. India seeks to develop relations with China on the basis of the principles of Panchsheel, mutual sensitivity to each other’s concerns and equality. We have agreed at the highest level to move ahead in diverse areas of cooperation while simultaneously finding ways and means of addressing our differences through dialogue and peaceful means. 

An important consequence of the above has been the remarkable transformation that has taken place in India – China economic relations. Trade and economic cooperation between India and China has grown rapidly in the last decade from US$ 264.8 million in 1991 to US$ 4.3 billion for the period January-November, 2002 . 

Many of you will recall the fact that in 2001 when India removed the last of its quantitative restrictions, there was great fear of cheaper Chinese goods swamping the Indian market. A popular news magazine even described it as a second invasion by China. However, producers and manufacturers in India over the last two years have more than stood their ground. Far from being swamped by imports, India-China trade figures reflect a relative balance in India’s exports and imports. There is an important lesson to be learnt here. India can be globally competitive if it continues to strengthen its efforts in this regard. The Indian business community should face the world as well as China with confidence. 

I am convinced that the future of Asia rests in expanded economic interaction. The logic of economics is bound to inevitably overwhelm Asia just as it has happened in Europe. The key to enhancing Asian security lies in our collective ability to build mutual economic stakes in each other. This is a process which is already happening throughout the region. Regional infrastructure linkages in the form of roads, railway lines and pipelines are rapidly becoming a reality. They hold the potential to knit Asia together in a manner never before seen. On its part, India too has been contributing to this process by expanding connectivity with its neighbours towards the east as well as the west. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, power in the 21st century will flow from the pores of a well run economy. India and China have shown the wisdom to move ahead in their bilateral relations even as contentious issues such as the border dispute are separately addressed. Economic integration and an overall improvement in relations has not been held hostage to differences over specific issues, however important those issues are. The wisdom of adopting such an approach to India-Pakistan relations is self evident. I hope our neighbour will not keep its eyes forever shut to this truth. 

To conclude, Asian security can be visualized in terms of concentric circles comprising West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia and North East Asia. India is part of them all. Each one affects India’s security and India proposes to play an active role in promoting security within Asia in collaboration with fellow Asian countries. 

Asia is today and will continue to be the most dynamic, rapidly changing and modernizing region of the world. Asian countries have already begun to apply themselves to addressing the whole array of security issues of concern to the continent ranging from arms control, terrorism, confidence building mechanisms, security of sea-lanes, greater economic integration, security of energy supplies, greater connectivity. As these efforts develop and coalesce, we will have established a cooperative architecture that guarantees peace, security, stability not only in Asia but also in the whole world. 

A strong and confident India is ready to contribute to this process.