Bali And Beyond

Nobel Lecture by R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Oslo, 10 December 2007.

Your Majesties, Your Royal Highnesses, Honourable Members of the NorwegianNobel Committee, Excellencies, My Colleagues from the IPCC, Distinguished Ladies& Gentlemen.

As Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) I am deeplyprivileged to present this lecture on behalf of the Panel on the occasion of theNobel Peace Prize being awarded to the IPCC jointly with Mr Al Gore. While doingso, I pay tribute to the thousands of experts and scientists who havecontributed to the work of the Panel over almost two decades of excitingevolution and service to humanity. On this occasion I also salute the leadershipprovided by my predecessors Prof. Bert Bolin and Dr Robert Watson. One of themajor strengths of the IPCC is the procedures and practices that it hasestablished over the years, and the credit for these go primarily to Prof. Bolinfor their introduction and to Dr Watson for building on the efforts of theformer most admirably. My gratitude also to UNEP and WMO for their support,represented here today by Dr. Mostapha Tolba and Dr. Michel Jarraudrespectively.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC has had a major impact in creatingpublic awareness on various aspects of climate change, and the three WorkingGroup reports as part of this assessment represent a major advance in scientificknowledge, for which I must acknowledge the remarkable leadership of theCo-Chairs of the three Working Groups, Dr Susan Solomon, Dr Qin Dahe for WorkingGroup I; Dr Martin Parry and Dr Osvaldo Canziani for Working Group II; and DrBert Metz and Dr Ogunlade Davidson for Working Group III respectively. TheSynthesis Report, which distills and integrates the major findings from thesethree reports has also benefited enormously from their valuable inputs.

The IPCC produces key scientific material that is of the highest relevance topolicymaking, and is agreed word-by-word by all governments, from the mostskeptical to the most confident. This difficult process is made possible by thetremendous strength of the underlying scientific and technical material includedin the IPCC reports.
The Panel was established in 1988 through a resolution of the UN GeneralAssembly. One of its clauses was significant in having stated, "Noting with concern that the emerging evidence indicates that continuedgrowth in atmospheric concentrations of "greenhouse" gases couldproduce global warming with an eventual rise in sea levels, the effects of whichcould be disastrous for mankind if timely steps are not taken at alllevels". This means that almost two decades ago the UN was acutelyconscious of the possibility of disaster consequent on climate change throughincreases in sea levels. Today we know much more, which provides greatersubstance to that concern.

This award being given to the IPCC, we believe goes fundamentally beyond aconcern for the impacts of climate change on peace. Mr Berge Furre expressedeloquently during the Nobel Banquet on 10 December 2004 an important tenet whenhe said "We honour the earth; for bringing forth flowers and food – andtrees... The Norwegian Nobel Committee is committed to the protection of theearth. This commitment is our vision – deeply felt and connected to humanrights and peace". Honouring the IPCC through the grant of the Nobel PeacePrize in 2007 in essence can be seen as a clarion call for the protection of theearth as it faces the widespread impacts of climate change. The choice of thePanel for this signal honour is, in our view, an acknowledgement of threeimportant realities, which can be summed up as:

The power and promise of collective scientific endeavour, which, as demonstrated by the IPCC, can reach across national boundaries and political differences in the pursuit of objectives defining the larger good of human society.
The importance of the role of knowledge in shaping public policy and guiding global affairs for the sustainable development of human society.
An acknowledgement of the threats to stability and human security inherent in the impacts of a changing climate and, therefore, the need for developing an effective rationale for timely and adequate action to avoid such threats in the future.

These three realities encircle an important truth that must guide globalaction involving the entire human race in the future. Coming as I do from India,a land which gave birth to civilization in ancient times and where much of theearlier tradition and wisdom guides actions even in modern times, the philosophyof "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam", which means the whole universe is onefamily, must dominate global efforts to protect the global commons. Thisprinciple is crucial to the maintenance of peace and order today as it would beincreasingly in the years ahead, and as the well-known columnist and authorThomas Friedman has highlighted in his book "The World is Flat".

Neglect in protecting our heritage of natural resources could prove extremelyharmful for the human race and for all species that share common space on planetearth. Indeed, there are many lessons in human history which provide adequatewarning about the chaos and destruction that could take place if we remainguilty of myopic indifference to the progressive erosion and decline of nature'sresources. Much has been written, for instance, about the Maya civilization,which flourished during 250–950 AD, but collapsed largely as a result ofserious and prolonged drought. Even earlier, some 4000 years ago a number ofwell-known Bronze Age cultures also crumbled extending from the Mediterranean tothe Indus Valley, including the civilizations, which had blossomed inMesopotamia. More recent examples of societies that collapsed or faced chaos onaccount of depletion or degradation of natural resources include the KhmerEmpire in South East Asia, Eastern Island, and several others. Changes inclimate have historically determined periods of peace as well as conflict. Therecent work of David Zhang has, in fact, highlighted the link betweentemperature fluctuations, reduced agricultural production, and the frequency ofwarfare in Eastern China over the last millennium. Further, in recent yearsseveral groups have studied the link between climate and security. These haveraised the threat of dramatic population migration, conflict, and war over waterand other resources as well as a realignment of power among nations. Some alsohighlight the possibility of rising tensions between rich and poor nations,health problems caused particularly by water shortages, and crop failures aswell as concerns over nuclear proliferation.

One of the most significant aspects of the impacts of climate change, whichhas unfortunately not received adequate attention from scholars in the socialsciences, relates to the equity implications of changes that are occurring andare likely to occur in the future. In general, the impacts of climate change onsome of the poorest and the most vulnerable communities in the world could proveextremely unsettling. And, given the inadequacy of capacity, economic strength,and institutional capabilities characterizing some of these communities, theywould remain extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and may,therefore, actually see a decline in their economic condition, with a loss oflivelihoods and opportunities to maintain even subsistence levels of existence.Since the IPCC by its very nature is an organization that does not provideassessments, which are policy prescriptive, it has not provided any directionson how conflicts inherent in the social implications of the impacts of climatechange could be avoided or contained. Nevertheless, the Fourth Assessment Reportprovides scientific findings that other scholars can study and arrive at someconclusions on in relation to peace and security. Several parts of our reportshave much information and knowledge that would be of considerable value forindividual researchers and think tanks dealing with security issues as well asgovernments that necessarily are concerned with some of these matters. It wouldbe particularly relevant to conduct in-depth analysis of risks to security amongthe most vulnerable sectors and communities impacted by climate change acrossthe globe.

Peace can be defined as security and the secure access to resources that areessential for living. A disruption in such access could prove disruptive ofpeace. In this regard, climate change will have several implications, asnumerous adverse impacts are expected for some populations in terms of:

access to clean water,
access to sufficient food,
stable health conditions,
ecosystem resources,
security of settlements

Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources.On a regional scale, mountain snowpack, glaciers, and small ice caps play acrucial role in fresh water availability. Widespread mass losses from glaciersand reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to acceleratethroughout the 21^st century, reducing water availability, hydropowerpotential, and the changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied bymeltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), wheremore than one-sixth of the world's population currently lives. There is alsohigh confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the Mediterranean Basin, westernUnited States, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil) will suffer a decreasein water resources due to climate change. In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due toclimate change.

Climate change could further adversely affect food security and exacerbatemalnutrition at low latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropicalregions, where crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small localtemperature increases (1–2 °C). By 2020, in some African countries, yieldsfrom rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%. Agriculturalproduction, including access to food, in many African countries is projected tobe severely compromised.

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through,for example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases, and injurydue to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases;increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrationsof ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and the alteredspatial distribution of some infectious diseases.

Climate change is likely to lead to some irreversible impacts onbiodiversity. There is medium confidence that approximately 20%–30% of speciesassessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases inglobal average warming exceed 1.5–2.5 ºC, relative to 1980–99. As globalaverage temperature exceeds about 3.5 ºC, model projections suggest significantextinctions (40%–70% of species assessed) around the globe. These changes, ifthey were to occur would have serious effects on the sustainability of severalecosystems and the services they provide to human society.

As far as security of human settlements is concerned, vulnerabilities toclimate change are generally greater in certain high-risk locations,particularly coastal and riverine areas, and areas whose economies are closelylinked with climate-sensitive resources. Where extreme weather events becomemore intense or more frequent with climate change, the economic and social costsof those events will increase.

Some regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change.

The Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of projected warming on natural systems and human communities,
Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts,
Small islands, where there is high exposure of population and infrastructure to projected climate change impacts
Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges, and river flooding.

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that non-climate stresses canincrease vulnerability to climate change by reducing resilience and can alsoreduce adaptive capacity because of resource deployment towards competing needs.Vulnerable regions face multiple stresses that affect their exposure andsensitivity to various impacts as well as their capacity to adapt. Thesestresses arise from, for example, current climate hazards, poverty, and unequalaccess to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalization,conflict, and incidence of diseases such as HIV/AIDS.

Within other areas, even those with high incomes, some people (such as thepoor, young children, and the elderly) can be particularly at risk.

Migration and movement of people is a particularly critical source ofpotential conflict. Migration, usually temporary and often from rural tourban areas, is a common response to calamities such as floods and famines. Butas in the case of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, where multiplestresses could be at work on account of a diversity of causes and conditions, soalso in the case of migration, individuals may have multiple motivations andthey could be displaced by multiple factors.

Another issue of extreme concern is the finding that anthropogenic factorscould lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending on therate and magnitude of climate change. For instance, partial loss of ice sheetson polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines,and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas andlow-lying islands.

Global average warming above about 4.5 ºC relative to 1980–99 (about 5 ºC above pre-industrial) wouldimply

Projected decreases of precipitation by up to 20% in many dry tropical and subtropical areas.
Expected mass loss of Greenland's ice if sustained over many centuries (based on all current global climate system models assessed) leading to sea level rise up to 4 metres and flooding of shorelines on every continent.

The implications of these changes, if they were to occur would be grave anddisastrous. However, it is within the reach of human society to meet thesethreats. The impacts of climate change can be limited by suitable adaptationmeasures and stringent mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Societies have a long record of adapting to the impacts of weather andclimate. But climate change poses novel risks often outside the range ofexperience, such as impacts related to drought, heat waves, accelerated glacierretreat, and hurricane intensity. These impacts will require adaptive responsessuch as investments in storm protection and water supply infrastructure, as wellas community health services. Adaptation measures essential to reduce suchvulnerability, are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone but canbe integrated within, for example, water resource management, coastal defence,and risk-reduction strategies. The global community needs to coordinate a farmore proactive effort towards implementing adaptation measures in the mostvulnerable communities and systems in the world.

Adaptation is essential to address the impacts resulting from the warmingwhich is already unavoidable due to past emissions. But, adaptation alone is notexpected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, andespecially not in the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude.

There is substantial potential for the mitigation of global greenhouse gasemissions over the coming decades that could offset the projected growth ofglobal emissions or reduce emissions below current levels. There are multipledrivers for actions that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and they canproduce multiple benefits at the local level in terms of economic developmentand poverty alleviation, employment, energy security, and local environmentalprotection.

The Fourth Assessment Report has assessed the costs of mitigation in thecoming decades for a number of scenarios of stabilisation of the concentrationof these gases and associated average global temperature increases atequilibrium. A stabilisation level of 445–590 ppm of CO2 equivalent, whichcorresponds to a global average temperature increase above pre-industrial atequilibrium (using best estimate climate sensitivity) of around 2.0–2.4 ºCwould lead to a reduction in average annual GDP growth rate of less than 0.12%up to 2030 and beyond up to 2050. Essentially, the range of global GDP reductionwith the least-cost trajectory assessed for this level of stabilisation would beless than 3% in 2030 and less than 5.5% in 2050. Some important characteristicsof this stabilisation scenario need careful consideration:

For a CO2-equivalent concentration at stabilization of 445–490 ppm, CO2 emissions would need to peak during the period 2000–15 and decline thereafter. We, therefore, have a short window of time to bring about a reduction in global emissions if we wish to limit temperature increase to around 2 oC at equilibrium.
Even with this ambitious level of stabilisation the global average sea level rise above pre-industrial at equilibrium from thermal expansion only would lie between 0.4–1.4 metres. This would have serious implications for several regions and locations in the world.

A rational approach to management of risk would require that human societyevaluates the impacts of climate change inherent in a business-as-usual scenarioand the quantifiable costs as well as unquantifiable damages associated with it,against the cost of action. With such an approach the overwhelming result wouldbe in favour of major efforts at mitigation. The impacts of climate change evenwith current levels of concentration of greenhouse gases would be serious enoughto justify stringent mitigation efforts.