It won't be easy for Raha to push this proposal through. One, IOC is likely to oppose it; it may itself wish to gobble up HPCL and BPCL. Also, if ONGC gets HPCL and BPCL, IOC will have just one not-so-attractive option: combine with Oil India, whose fields are mainly located in northeast India. There are also fears being expressed about the ONGC-BPCL-HPCL combine which may increase the bureaucracy and hence mar the focus on core activities. "It's less likely to go through because it'll reduce competition and will be opposed at a political level by Left parties and respective staff unions," says Varadarajan. Anyway, it's unlikely to happen in the next three or four years.
In the interim, ONGC will have to expand globally. With the minister backing it, and the government willing to use diplomacy to wrangle deals, there's enough policy push. Only, Aiyar and Raha will have to iron out the emerging contradictions and be careful about the political risks involved in the process. Or else, ONGC could end up like other firms that have lost millions of dollars by making similar mistakes. And Raha and Aiyar might end up exploring in a vacuum—with no new domestic fields and nothing to boast about in the global arena.
