InDepth | Power in Numbers: Telangana’s Caste Arithmetic Is Becoming Electoral Arithmetic

Historically, Telangana’s social movements were defined by the statehood struggle and the anti-oppression agendas of Naxalite groups. Today, reservation has emerged as the central platform for electoral power.

If BCs constitute over half the state’s population, should political representation reflect their numerical strength? Can SCs, Scheduled Tribes and BCs join forces to convert demographic weight into political power?

The 2025 caste survey provided the arithmetic, reservation movements supplied the mobilisation and political parties offer competing interpretations. Caste politics in Telangana is moving beyond jobs and education toward representation in leadership, local bodies and legislatures.

The 2025 Socio-Economic, Educational, Employment, Political and Caste (SEEEPC) survey placed the BC population at 56.33 per cent, SCs at 17.43 per cent, STs at 10.45 per cent and Other Castes at 15.79 per cent. For BC organisations, 56.33 per cent is a political claim. If they comprise over half the population, why is their institutional representation disproportionately small? Yet, demographic strength does not automatically yield political power; numerical weight must translate into electoral strength—a transition Telangana has yet to complete.

“Reservation is a political promise to build a mass base for political parties. SC sub-categorisation was achieved with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s [BJP’s] help. Every party takes a stand depending on what it gains from a community,” says K. Srinivasulu, a professor at Osmania University. Psephologist Yogendra Yadav says that a caste census could fundamentally reshape representation politics. “Once BC communities know their numerical strength, they are likely to demand a greater share in government, employment, the economy and political power,” he adds.

A New Contest

Telangana is witnessing two distinct reservation struggles: SC sub-categorisation and the 42 per cent BC quota demand. The SC issue gained national prominence in November 2023 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a Madiga Reservation Porata Samiti (MRPS) rally in Secunderabad, promising a committee to examine SC sub-group classi­fication. This signalled a key BJP outreach to Madigas and placed MRPS founder Manda Krishna Madiga’s demand at the centre of the debate.“Kanshi Ram’s social movement became political; the MRPS movement must unite BCs, SCs and STs to translate social mobilisation into political power,” Manda Krishna Madiga says. Etala Rajender, BJP MP from Malkajgiri, says that Modi held a meeting with 40 OBC communities in Hyderabad to unite them. “If the BJP gets power in Telangana, the chief minister will be from the OBC community,” he says. “The Congress and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi [BRS] don’t have the guts to make OBC leaders the CM.”

Following the Supreme Court’s 2024 judgement permitting states to sub-classify SCs based on demonstrable backwardness, Telangana divided its 15 per cent SC quota into three: one per cent for 15 castes, nine percent for 18 castes (including Madigas) and five per cent for 26 castes (including Malas). However, Manda Krishna Madiga demanded at least 11 per cent for Madigas based on population share while questioning the commission’s classification. This dispute highlights how reservation politics is now equally a contest within reserved categories.

Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy’s Congress government committed to a 42 per cent BC quota under its Kamareddy declaration. Reddy pressed the Centre for approval and led a Delhi protest demanding clearance. However, a 42 per cent BC quota would push total reservations past the 50 per cent ceiling established in Indra Sawhney, causing political demands to outpace legal frameworks.

BJP MP and veteran social activist R. Krishnaiah says, “For 50 years, I have fought for the social welfare and representation of OBCs. Forty-two per cent reservation must be implemented. My fight has always been for BC welfare, education, employment and political power.”

Here, reservation intersects with electoral strategy. The Congress seeks ownership of the 42 per cent demand. The BJP supports BC reservation in principle while contesting its implementation. The BRS faces a trickier stance, having capped local body reservations at 50 per cent in its 2018 framework.

K. Kavitha, through the Telangana Jagruthi, fought for a 42 per cent BC quota in 2025. Now leading the Telangana Raksh­ana Sena, she has expanded this demand to a 50 per cent quota in legislative bodies, distinct Muslim quotas and an empi­rical census pushing total reservations past judicial caps. She says that before bifurcation there were reservation movements, but people in Telangana were focused on the separate state movement. “Until the 1990s, struggles centred on statehood, land, poverty, culture and farmers, not caste,” she says. “After the Mandal Commission, reservation politics gained prominence and BC organisations emerged. BC reservation is possible, and our party is ready to fight for it across India.”

All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen has backed the 42 per cent quota, reflecting the political relevance of Muslim BC communities. This proliferation demonstrates that while every group seeks to represent BCs, no single organisation speaks for all of them.

No Common Platform

Telangana’s BC population contains diverse caste, occupational, regional and religious groups with varied economic mobility and political ambitions. The 56.33 per cent figure provides numerical confidence but conceals deep fragmentation. Unresolved questions persist: should representation strictly follow population size? Should disadvantaged groups receive extra protection? Should Muslim BCs share the same platform? BC intellectual forums and civil-society groups argue representation should be measured by BC candidates, legislators, ministers and decision-makers, not just voters. A. Cheeranjivulu, chairman of the BC Intellectual Forum, says, “Political power must be distributed according to population share,” framing Rajyadhikaram as the core demand behind the BC movement.

The SC sub-categorisation debate demonstrates that communities sharing social exclusion can clash over resource distribution. The same friction exists within BC politics. BCs, SCs and STs do not automatically form a single electoral bloc: STs prioritise distinct land concerns, SC politics has internal fractures and BC groups compete among themselves. The likely outcome is not immediate Bahujan consolidation, but transactional coalitions.

The broader shift may ultimately be driven by national caste enumeration in Census 2027. Telangana shows how caste data transforms political claims; national data could lend similar numerical legitimacy to backward class, Dalit and tribal groups across India. However, numbers alone will not guarantee unity, they may intensify competition. The central political question is no longer how much quota a group receives, but how much political power its numbers entitle it to. Upcoming elections will test whether this arithmetic reshapes candidate selection, party leadership and alliances, while Census 2027 could elevate the debate nationally.

Thallapalli Rajendraprasad is a Journalist, Political Researcher and Analyst from Telangana