'Only President Musharraf And His Colleagues Know For Sure'

Margaret Warner: Deputy Secretary Armitage, welcome.

Richard Armitage: Good evening, Ms. Warner.

Margaret Warner: Your visit to India and Pakistan coincided with more violent incidents in Kashmir and a big war of words overwho was at fault. Is the situation between those two countries deteriorating?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think it's better now than it was in late May/early June, but it's clear that the incidences ofviolence are again on the upswing.

Margaret Warner: As you know, India is saying that the Pakistani President Musharraf essentially broke his word, the word hegave to you in June, that he would bring a permanent end to these cross-border incursions. Is India right?

Richard Armitage: Well, President Musharraf again reiterated to me that his comments about stopping activities across the lineof control were still valid, there had been nothing changed on that. I think both India and Pakistan recognizethat there are certain infiltrations across the line of control that no Pakistani president could control.

Margaret Warner: Is India right that the incursions abated somewhat after your visit in June, but that now they are on theupsurge? I mean, can you independently confirm that?

Richard Armitage: Yes, that's correct, and I've said so publicly. The cross-border or the cross-line of control incursions areup from the end of June, but they're still below the sort of seasonal annual highs.

Margaret Warner: Do you think General Musharraf is doing everything at least that is within his power; that is, that at leastnone of the incursions that are happening are supported by either Pakistani military or intelligence?

Richard Armitage: Well, we do believe that President Musharraf is a man of his word and we're going to treat him as such andtreat his word with all the care which it deserves. Only President Musharraf and his colleagues know for sure,but we think that he is exerting some efforts.

Margaret Warner: But are you saying the US can't really be sure if there is still official Pakistani support, or at leastmilitary and intelligence support, for some of these raids?

Richard Armitage: Well, I don't know that I want to get into what we know and what we don't know. I'd say that we believe thatPresident Musharraf is exerting efforts to cease Pakistan support for cross-border jihadists. I am sayinghowever that there are jihadists that are outside the control of all Pakistani authority. There are alsojihadists that were already existent in Kashmir; they didn't need to cross the line of control to causetrouble.

Margaret Warner: Just one other question about General Musharraf. He gave an interview to Agence France Presse, I think justbefore you were there, in which he said essentially, look, if India won't take any steps toward Pakistan andopening a dialogue, which of course is what both Pakistan and the US have been urging, I can't do any more. Ithink he said something like I can't take ten steps when India takes none.

Did he say something like that to you?

Richard Armitage: No, he didn't say that but he made it very clear that he thought that Pakistan had lived up to their end ofthe bargain and he was very hopeful that India would begin dialogue. We see right now that India, for herpart, is focused almost entirely on the upcoming Kashmir elections. She's focused like a laser on it. Andperhaps if those elections can proceed relatively free of violence, then there can be some sort of dialogue.

Margaret Warner: Well, now, what did Indian officials say to you about the possibility of dialogue or the possibility of somesteps toward Pakistan? I mean, were they setting this timetable about the elections, which I think are, what,late September or early October?

Richard Armitage: The elections are four-phase elections from the middle of September till middle October. They have said thatif the elections could proceed free of violence from Pakistan, then they would entertain a dialogue. PresidentMusharraf, for his part, told me that his government's position was to condemn violence during any electoralseason.

Margaret Warner: You said while you were in the region that you have fears that there will be violence around the election.Explain why that might happen.

Richard Armitage: Well, there are plenty of people who don't want elections to take place. There have been elections in thepast that have been full of violence, and I am fearful that history would repeat itself. I was happy toreceive President Musharraf's assurances that his government condemned violence and I hope that theseelections will be carried out relatively free of violence.

Margaret Warner: And these are elections for, essentially, the local parliament in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir?

Richard Armitage: That is correct.

Margaret Warner: Which the militants want everyone to boycott?

Richard Armitage: The militants are trying to bully people into not voting. And there are simultaneously in October electionsin Pakistan for their parliament.

Margaret Warner: Indian officials talking to reporters -- and I'm sure you've read a lot of these accounts -- have been sayingthat they feel let down, essentially, by the US. Columnist Jim Hoagland put it that US diplomacy had beendevalued in India's eyes because the assurances that you gave to India in June -- Musharraf has given us hisword this is going to end, or close to end -- haven't happened.

Did you get that sense when you were in India?

Richard Armitage: Both Indian officials and President Musharraf and his colleagues told me they valued US efforts in thisregard and hoped they'd continue. Mr. Hoagland is welcome to his own opinion, but that's what Indian officialstold me.

Margaret Warner: And Indian officials are also saying that they think the US is sort of coddling Musharraf, not pushing himhard enough, because the United States wants to maintain his support for the effort in Afghanistan. Did theysay anything like that to you, and what's your response to that?

Richard Armitage: Well, I've heard comments along those lines in the past, and it is true that President Musharraf has beenextraordinarily helpful in the war on terrorism. By the same token, however, we have obtained a pledge fromPresident Musharraf about cross-border activities and we are looking to him to live up to that pledge.

Margaret Warner: Did you speak to President Musharraf as well about the steps he took, I think just three or four days beforeyour arrival, in which he basically granted himself sweeping new powers to dissolve parliament and so on? It'sbeen widely interpreted by critics both here and in Pakistan and India as a power grab. Did you talk to himabout that?

Richard Armitage: Well, I spoke to the president about the transition back to civilian democracy. It is true that the people ofPakistan have been ill-served by both civilian democratic governments and military governments. And I pointedout that the US view was it was very important that President Musharraf be able to show a return tocivilian-controlled democracy and a path to that democracy, and we had a good discussion on this.

Margaret Warner: And what did he say?

Richard Armitage: Well, he indicated that when he comes to New York for the UN General Assembly in September, that he'll begiving a series of interviews. And I fully expect him to talk about his plans and his hopes for democracy inPakistan.

Margaret Warner: Another topic on your trip from news accounts is that you are also talking in these various countries aboutthe possibility of military action against Iraq. What kind of a response did you get in your private meetings?

Richard Armitage: Well, you've prejudiced the question. I was talking about the situation of Iraq and I made it very clear thatPresident Bush has all options open to him and that he has not decided which course to take, and when he diddecide, then the President would consult with friends and allies. And we just had exchanges of views on Iraqand on the Middle East in general.

Margaret Warner: But I think right after you left, both China and India warned against any action against Iraq. You said inJapan, I believe, at a press conference that you thought when the President made his decision -- I don't havethe exact words, but that you believed we expect to have a fair amount of international support. I'm justwondering, what is the scenario, do you think, for all of these leaders, from France to Germany to SaudiArabia to Japan to China, to walk back from all the warnings they've issued about don't do this, don't dothis? How do you think this might happen?

Richard Armitage: Well, I would suspect that once the President has made a decision then his administration would fan out andpublicly begin making the case for regime change. And I suspect as we go forward that nations would obviouslydecide or make their decision based on their own national interest. But I think once we make a public case onthe question of the regime in Iraq, then we can expect a fair amount of support.

Margaret Warner: Is the administration ready to do anything to make it more palatable to other countries? I'm thinking, forexample, the British Foreign Office said yesterday it might press for setting at the UN a new deadline forIraq to comply with weapons inspectors. Former Secretary of State Baker, as you know, has written that hethinks that would be a good idea; the US should support that as a precursor to any military action.

Do you think the administration should take that route?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think the administration should take into consideration the views of all well-meaning friends andallies and former experts like Mr. Baker, and I know the President is looking and listening to all thesevoices. But he's the one nationally elected leader and he'll make his own mind up after taking all these viewsinto consideration.

Margaret Warner: Well, let me ask it another way. What would be the downside or the harm in first going to the UN and trying toput -- and this is what happened before the Gulf War -- essentially put some sort of a deadline or obligationon Iraq; and then if Iraq doesn't comply, you know, maybe you get more international support. I'm justwondering, what's the downside to doing that?

Richard Armitage: Well, there's an obvious downside that was spelled out by Vice President Cheney the other day, that SaddamHussein is a master of bait-and-switch, that he can obfuscate and delay and use any such discussions just tobuy more time. But let me remind you, the President will make the decision whether to go to the UN or justwhat to do, and we'll just have to wait for his decision.

Margaret Warner: Well, let me ask you about one other decision that I know he will also be making, but it concerns what kind ofapproval, authorization or level of consultation with Congress. Yesterday, Dick Lugar, pretty much the seniorRepublican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in Moscow that he thought the President should comefor a formal Senate vote to authorize this.

What do you think about that?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think the President takes very seriously his relations with Congress and Congress's duties under theConstitution, and I know he said that he will consult with Congress, and I'm sure Senator Lugar's views as avery respected foreign policy expert will be taken into consideration. It's not for me to say what thePresident ultimately will do.

Margaret Warner: All right. Secretary Armitage, thanks for being with us.

Richard Armitage: Thank you, Ms. Warner.

(Courtesy US State Department)