Trump wants to restart talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as US military resources face pressure from the Iran war.
Japan, Taiwan and India are questioning how much they can rely on Washington as US policies in Asia shift.
Reduced US-South Korea military drills and uncertainty over Taiwan and India are adding to concerns about US security commitments.
Donald Trump’s push to reopen dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is raising fresh questions about US security commitments in Asia after Washington scaled back military drills with South Korea and cancelled another exercise amid constraints on American forces caused by the Iran war.
The decisions are being closely watched by Japan, Taiwan and India, which are each reassessing how Washington’s shifting priorities could affect their security ties. Japan is entering sensitive talks with the United States over the cost of hosting US forces, Taiwan is preparing for Trump’s next summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and India is becoming more cautious about long-term defence cooperation with Washington. According to Reuters, officials and security analysts see the developments as adding to doubts about the reliability of US security commitments in the region.
"The decision will certainly fuel growing doubts in the region about U.S. security commitments," said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group and former U.S. diplomat in Japan and China.
The United States last week abruptly reduced military drills with South Korea, with Trump describing the exercises as hostile to Pyongyang. Seoul said on Monday that Washington had also cancelled another military exercise scheduled for next month, citing constraints on US forces because of the Iran war.
A White House official said Trump had been frustrated by the failure of US allies to support the war and had made clear that many of them needed to spend more on their own defence.
A person briefed on discussions between US and South Korean officials said Trump was keen to restart talks with North Korea and secure a win on the international stage to counter his unpopular conflict with Iran.
During a visit to Asia this month, Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby said Washington was focused on working with allies to ensure combat readiness along the so-called first island chain, stretching from Japan through the Philippines.
Japan’s Security Talks Face Added Uncertainty
For Tokyo, Trump’s approach to Pyongyang comes as Japan prepares for difficult negotiations with Washington over how much it should pay towards the cost of hosting US forces, which make up America’s largest overseas deployment.
Trump’s effort to meet Kim has so far drawn a frosty response from Pyongyang. Itsunori Onodera, an influential Japanese lawmaker and former defence minister, said the outreach could backfire and embolden nuclear-armed North Korea.
Such a prospect is "extremely troubling" for Tokyo, he said on a Fuji TV news programme last Thursday.
Despite Trump’s overtures, North Korea fired a volley of ballistic missiles off its east coast that day, triggering alerts in South Korea and Japan.
A senior Japanese government official, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Tokyo was preparing for the possibility that Trump could, with little warning, demand a sharp hike in Japan’s contribution towards the cost of hosting US forces. Such a demand would be politically difficult to accept.
Analysts say Trump could also use planned US military exercises with Japan in October as leverage. Officials in Washington and Tokyo said they did not expect the exercises to be curtailed, though they cautioned that Trump could change his mind.
The Keen Sword exercises may already be smaller than their 2024 iteration because US assets and personnel have been diverted to the conflict with Iran.
That redeployment recently saw the USS George Washington, America’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Asia, depart for the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln. The move has fuelled concern that US deterrence against China is being eroded.
Taiwan Weighs Trump’s China Calculus
The question of US priorities is particularly sensitive in Taiwan, where concerns over China’s growing military pressure remain acute. Beijing claims the democratically governed island.
Trump has held up approval of a $14 billion package of arms sales to Taipei as he seeks to maintain warm relations and a fragile trade truce with Xi.
As Trump prepares for his latest round of summitry with Xi in Washington next month, officials in Taipei expect Washington to at least carve up the arms sales into smaller chunks to avoid upsetting Beijing too much, Reuters reported.
Domingo Yang of Taiwan’s defence ministry’s think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, said there was a distinction between Trump’s rhetoric and actual US behaviour. US intelligence sharing, training and patrols with Taiwan, he noted, remain substantial.
A US Navy aircraft also transited the Taiwan Strait on Friday, in a move Washington described as demonstrating its "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."
The uncertainty follows the Pentagon’s decision in June to rename its Asia military headquarters from Indo-Pacific Command to Pacific Command. Some analysts interpreted the change as a sign that India was no longer as strategically important to Washington.
The Pentagon denied any such shift.
Two Indian sources with knowledge of the matter said officials were now "very, very cautious" about committing to long-term defence deals with Washington.
"The latest decision only reinforces President Trump's transactional view of foreign affairs and serves as a reminder that differences over specific policies, even among allies, can carry costs for the broader bilateral relationship," said Pearl Pandya, senior analyst at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a conflict monitoring group.
