Sweden Democrats fell from second to third with 17.5 per cent, marking their first decline in a parliamentary election.
Jimmie Akesson’s campaign included anti-immigration and anti-Islam messaging and a visit to Stockholm’s Rinkeby.
Preliminary results put the centre-left bloc ahead 176-173, with votes still to be counted and government formation unresolved.
The Sweden Democrats suffered their first decline in a parliamentary election, losing three percentage points to 17.5 per cent as the far-right party fell from second to third place, even as Sweden’s overall election remained too close to call.
The result came after a campaign in which the Sweden Democrats (SD) intensified their anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric, including party leader Jimmie Akesson’s visit to Rinkeby, a Stockholm suburb where most residents have a minority background. According to Al Jazeera, residents viewed Akesson’s visit as an attempt to provoke a reaction, but his appearance passed without confrontation.
Akesson cast his early ballot in Rinkeby, where he told reporters that the area “doesn’t look like Sweden … Sweden shouldn’t look like this, I think.”
For 18-year-old Sumeyah Ali, who was at an office space run by Jarva i samverkan, a Stockholm-based network of local non-profits coordinating free activities and youth programmes, the visit was deliberate.
“It was a political stunt,” said Ali. “It was meant to provoke.”
She said Akesson’s remarks were intended to reinforce the SD’s anti-immigration and Islamophobic rhetoric.
But there was no confrontation during Akesson’s visit. He reportedly received a welcome from a young boy who held the door open for him and later shook hands with a poll clerk.
SD’s anti-Islam campaign
The Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots that was once considered a political pariah, have repeatedly targeted Islam as part of their political messaging.
In 2023, Akesson called for a halt to the construction of new mosques and said Sweden should, in the longer term, begin “seizing and demolishing mosques” that spread “anti-democratic, anti-Swedish” propaganda. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson rejected the proposal.
Akesson has maintained that his criticism is directed at Islamism rather than Muslims. During the election campaign, however, senior SD MP Richard Jomshof moved away from that distinction.
Asked by Dagens Nyheter in August what message he had for Muslims living peacefully in Sweden, Jomshof replied: “They can stop being Muslims, for a start.”
The party has also proposed banning the hijab and used campaign posters carrying the message “We make Sweden, Sweden again”, which residents said contributed to an atmosphere of intimidation.
Zack*, a 27-year-old resident, told Al Jazeera that people had developed thicker skin in response to the SD’s rhetoric.
Sara, a 25-year-old business owner, described the campaign as an attempt to provoke a reaction.
“It was rage-bait, but it didn’t work,” she said.
She pointed to the 2022 incident involving Rasmus Paludan, the Danish-Swedish far-right politician who burned a Quran in Rinkeby Square. The incident was followed by riots and peaceful protests in several Swedish cities.
“It was chaos then, but people know now we can’t be provoked, as that is what they [the far right] want,” she said.
A setback after years of growth
The election had been closely watched because the SD had hoped to build on two decades of electoral growth and enter government alongside the right-wing bloc comprising the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals.
Preliminary results in the early hours of Monday gave Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc a narrow lead of 176 seats to 173 over Kristersson’s right-wing alliance. Some votes were still due to be counted on Wednesday, with final results not expected for several days.
The three-seat difference left the result unsettled. Even if the opposition secured a majority, its four parties would still need to reach an agreement on forming a government.
Analysts warned that the result could lead to a political deadlock lasting weeks and potentially ending in a snap election.
For the SD, the vote marked its first decline in a parliamentary election after two decades of steady growth.
Higher turnout in multicultural areas
Turnout rose in multicultural areas such as Rinkeby, while it fell across Sweden overall.
“Before, young people felt like their vote didn’t matter, but now they feel their vote will count for a united society; even their parents are telling their kids to go and vote,” Ali said.
A poll published by Sweden’s public broadcaster showed that voters with a non-European background favoured the left bloc. The Left Party, which sits at the opposite end of the political spectrum from the SD, increased its share from 17 per cent in 2022 to 21 per cent this year.
Preliminary results from Rinkeby central showed that more than half of voters backed the Left Party.
One stop away on the underground is Tensta, another area frequently criticised by right-wing politicians. There, 54.35 per cent of voters backed the Left Party. The SD received only six votes, despite having placed a campaign poster in the central square.
Campaigning in the Trump era
Ali attributed part of the SD’s campaign style to what she described as the “Americanisation” of Swedish politics, arguing that politicians were attempting to emulate United States President Donald Trump’s divisive approach to politics.
The SD spent about $100,000 on a week-long summer campaign at Stockholm’s central station. Posters told people: “If you commit crimes, live off benefits, don’t learn Swedish or misbehave, you’re not welcome.”
The party also faced controversy over campaign advertisements in western Sweden. In Skaraborg, SD bus advertisements asked “Missing Mogadishu?” and promoted a grant intended to help migrants return home.
The transport operator removed the advertisements in August after about 20 drivers of Somali heritage called in sick in protest.
Al Jazeera reported that Ali remained optimistic as many Swedes embraced diversity and several initiatives continued to work towards reducing segregation.
Stockholm City has launched Fokus Jarva, a project aimed at closing the gap in conditions between the district and the rest of the city. It includes plans for some 15,000 new homes alongside upgrades to schools, services, jobs, safety and public spaces.
Ali suggested that Akesson should look beyond Rinkeby’s beige and grey housing blocks to see its vibrant, diverse and supportive community.
“In the end, that’s what makes a place, however it looks,” she said.
