Swedes vote on September 13 in the first general election since Sweden joined NATO in March 2024
The opposition Red-Green bloc holds a narrow polling lead over the governing parties and Sweden Democrats
The Liberals’ ability to clear the 4% parliamentary threshold, along with coalition arithmetic, could shape who forms the next government
Swedes will vote on Sunday in elections to the Riksdag, regional and municipal councils, with opinion polls showing a tight race between the opposition bloc and the governing coalition in the first general election since Sweden joined NATO in March 2024.
Early voting began on August 26 and runs through election day on coming Sunday, when polling stations will be open from 08:00 to 20:00. According to the Swedish Election Authority, for the first time, more than 8 million voters are eligible to cast ballots in the parliamentary election.
A Tight Race For Power
The Riksdag has 349 seats and uses proportional representation. Parties generally need at least 4% of the national vote to enter parliament.
The latest polling from state media shows the opposition Red-Green bloc, comprising the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Left Party and Greens, at 50.8%, against 47.6% for the governing Tidö parties and their Sweden Democrat allies, a gap of 3.2% points. The same survey put the Liberals at 5.4%, above the threshold, with a significant share of their support coming from tactical voters among other Tidö parties.
A separate survey by state media on September 4 showed the opposition still leading, while the Liberals remained at risk of falling below the 4% threshold.
Why Smaller Parties Matter
The 4% threshold is particularly significant for smaller parties such as the Liberals because falling below it would alter the parliamentary arithmetic and potentially affect the formation of the next government.
In June, a Statistics Sweden survey showed the opposition bloc leading by 12.6% points, with the Social Democrats at 33.9%. The shift suggests the race has tightened substantially in the final weeks.
What Happens After The Vote?
Under Sweden's system, voters elect the Riksdag, which then chooses the prime minister. The prime minister in turn appoints government ministers. The election result is preliminary until votes are recounted, a process that takes about a week, according to the Riksdag. The prime minister may announce in the days after the election whether he intends to remain in office or resign, based on the preliminary result.
Riksdag Speaker Andreas Norlén has urged parties to be prepared to abandon their red lines to avoid a prolonged government-formation process, warning that Sweden's current security environment makes political deadlock particularly concerning.
NATO Adds A Wider Dimension
Sweden officially joined NATO on March 7, 2024, becoming the alliance's 32nd member. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard and Defence Minister Pål Jonson travelled to the NATO summit in Ankara in July, according to a government press release.
The Swedish government's current NATO priorities are collective defence, a stronger European role within the alliance and continued support for Ukraine. The next government will determine how Stockholm pursues those objectives at a time of heightened security concerns in Europe.
What To Watch On Sunday Night
Preliminary results are expected after polling stations close at 20:00, with the Election Authority announcing final results approximately one week after election day. The key questions will be whether the opposition's lead holds, whether the Liberals clear the 4% threshold, and whether the result produces a workable parliamentary majority and how quickly a government can be formed.
