All the sparrows on the rooftops are crying about the fact that the most imperialist nation that is supporting the colonial regime in the colonies is the United States of America.
-- Nikita Khrushchev
Over the years, America has conspired and executed plans to throw out several'unfriendly' regimes and then brought in exiled leaders to power, nurturing them with considerable success. In the 1950s, Dr Muhammed Musaddiq was ousted and Reza Shah Pahlavi was imposed on Iran , a regime change that proved to be effective and long-lasting till the torchbearers of Islamic revolution took to the streets of Teheran.
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But in recent years, the US efforts to bring about regime changes by force--in Afghanistan and Iraq--have not come through leading to disastrous consequences. Equally unsuccessful have beenefforts to bring in exiled leaders--Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq and Zahir Shah in Afghanistan--as part of arrangements to install puppet regimes. Events unfolding during recent weeks suggest that a similar effort is under way in Pakistan, paving the way for another regime change without invasion, helped along by exiled leaders.
Ahmed Chalabi was once dubbed the 'George Washington of Iraq ' by the neo-con elements in the Bush administration. The leader of the Iraqi National Congress--who left Iraq in 1956--played a key role in drumming up support in favour of the invasion of Iraq . Following the ouster of Saddam Hussein, he served as deputy prime minister in the Iraqi government from May 2005 to May 2006. However, his lack of grass-root support very quickly made him inconsequential and he failed to win a single seat in the 2005 elections. As things stand, Chalabi is now under investigation for embezzling funds amounting to $ 300 million. Similarly Zahir Shah--whose father Nadir Shah assumed the throne of Afghanistan after executing Habibullah Ghazi--was brought in from exile and made the figurehead of a dying state, ending his years in exile in Italy . The fall of the Taleban also brought to the forefront Hamid Karzai, who was a strong supporter of Northern Alliance and lived in exile in Quetta, Pakistan . However, till date, Afghanistan is far away from stability. The imposition of exiled leaders, to further US and other Western interests, has largely proved to be counter-productive.
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Interestingly, governments in Pakistan have always worked in collaboration with the US--even during Cold War years--and no truly anti-US government has ever been in power in the country. Most regimes have had no difficulty in implementing martial laws, carrying out assassination, overthrowing elected governments, all under the nose of ever-vigilant intelligence agencies.
The noticeable difference, however, in the case of Pakistan is that unlike Zahir Shah, Karzai or Chalabi--who were largely unpopular and relatively unknown--Americans are backingPakistan's most popular political outfit, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Despite the virtue of selection, it is still a pathetic arrangement in more ways than one. PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, whose father Zulfiqar Ali Bhuttowas instrumental in bringing nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan back into aposition of prominence is now forced to say that she will hand over Khan to the nuclear watchdog, IAEA. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was also the man who talked of forming an Islamic block and was in the process of organizingan Islamic summit. And his daughter now has to position herself as a Western ally--largely seen as enemies by most of the Islamic world--in her bid to return to her country.
What has been equally fascinating is the volte face done by Washington with regard to changing stances dealing with Pakistan.Some months ago, there was a lot of talk of pre-emptive strikes inside Pakistan to combat terror. But ever sinceBenazir Bhutto's name has emerged as an alternative such sabre-rattling has died down andhas given way to support to the new regime. This has happened despite the fact that the Pakistani border with Afghanistan has witnessed fresh and large-scale violence in recent times. It is also the first time that the US has publicly, and not covertly, provided unconditional backing to a potentially friendly regime. Whatever the final outcome, the US endorsement of the'secular combine' of civilian President Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto is beginning to reflect the failure of silent diplomacy and covert operations.
In another departure from the past practices of exiled leaders returning home, BenazirBhutto's utterances in the recent past point to a compromise of sorts. Unlike others of her ilk who talked of ushering in a revolution and overhauling the system Benazir Bhutto has raised no such expectation. Like a truly transformed leader, she is returning home, promising to work with Pervez Musharraf against whom she fought all these years. Elsewhere in the region, some conciliatory, some disparaging but mostly interesting developments have left a profound impact on theregion's polity. Russian President Vladimir Putin's Teheran visit has strengthened Iranian position in the region andTurkey's stand on the Kurd situation has diverted US attention.
All this is happening in the last leg of Bush-Cheney administration and they would be desperate to look at least some good news emerging, this time may be from Pakistan. Meanwhile, the'corporate politics' of Washington, fuelled by powerful lobbying groups, would hope the time-tested formula of changing regimes without invasion will go according to plan in Pakistan. But perhaps they are ignorant of the fact that the proverbin practice in Pakistan is: divided they stand, united they fall.
Dr Shahid Masood is an eminent political analyst and the Group Executive Director of GEO TV Network.
