As violence escalates across the country, the prospects for peace talksappear increasingly uncertain. At a time when the government's High Level PeaceCommittee members are discussing fresh initiatives to invite the Communist Partyof Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M) for talks, the Maoists have already called a number ofgeneral strikes aimed at disrupting Nepal's main east-west highway. Immediatelyafter the Dashain festival between October 20 and 28, the Maoistslaunched a new phase of violence, indicating that there would be more bloodshedin coming months.
Amid the escalation of violence, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has set afinal deadline for peace talks. In his press meeting on November 25, Deuba askedthe Maoists to come to the negotiation table by January13, 2005, or face 'severeaction'. "After I was appointed prime minister, I have already appealedtwice to the Maoist to come for talks," Deuba said, "Now I am going toformally appeal to them for the third and final time. If they don't accept, the governmentwill have to go for elections to give continuity to the democraticprocess."
The Maoists, however, rejected his offer and trashed the talk of polls."Parliamentary elections would not address our demands. If at all electionsare to take place, it should be for the constituent assembly," said KrishnaBahadur Mahara, 'spokesman' of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist)."There will be a blood bath in case of elections. We want result-orientedtalks. Past experiences have shown that holding dialogues with governments thatdo not have full authority does not bear fruit."
Maoist leaders continue to press for their demands, including elections for aConstituent Assembly, a Round Table political meeting, and credibleinternational mediators like the United Nations, as the essential bases forresumption of peace negotiations.
Conflict experts hold the view that neither of the warring side is convinced ofthe urgency of resuming the peace process just yet. "I don't see anypossibility of holding peace talks in the near future," said Bishnu RajUpreti, President of Friends of Peace and a conflict management expert."Both sides appear aggressive. The government is talking about peace talksonly as rhetoric, because they cannot afford to be seen as opposing talks."
Others are still optimistic about the resumption of peace talks. "PrimeMinister's fixing of date is not being seen as a deadline." said PadmaRatna Tuladhar, human rights activist and former mediator in government-Maoisttalks. "The time has come for the government to decide whether it acceptsthe Maoist demand for a constituent assembly or not. Maoist leaders have notcategorically said that they are not interested in peaceful talks. Since theyare rebels dying for their cause, it is not easy for them to accept the offerwithout analyzing it."
Widening political differences between the Deuba government and four agitatingparties is also disturbing the prospects of negotiations. Knowing the weaknessof the government, and its lack of a strong backing from the country's majorpolitical parties, the Maoists have repeatedly rejected Prime Minister Deuba'scalls. Following a ten-day suspension of hostilities (from both sides) duringthe Dashain festival in October, the government has been repeatedly calling forpeace talks. However, Girija Prasad Koirala, the Nepali Congress (NC) Presidentand former Prime Minister who is leading the four agitating parties, contends,"How can this government fulfill Maoist demands as it does not have alegitimate mandate? Only after the reinstatement of the dissolved House ofRepresentatives will it have legitimate right to negotiate with theMaoists. "
The government, on the other hand, claims that it is 'broad based' andconsequently able to hold enter the peace process. "We want to settle theMaoist problem through peace talks and negotiations. This is a first-of-its-kindAll Party government, which has the mandate to decide on any politicalissue," asserts Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary. "If theyagree to come to the negotiation table, we will guarantee their safety andsecurity."
The Maoists, however, remain adamant. A week ago, Deuba indicated he coulddiscuss 'any issue', including the constituent assembly, if the Maoists came tothe table. Deuba made his call in the presence of King Gyanendra at theinaugural ceremony of the World Buddhist Summit held recently at Lumbini, 400kilometers west of Kathmandu. Using the occasion, Deuba added, "I wouldlike to formally request Maoist leaders to come to the negotiation table fromthe land of the birthplace of Lord Buddha. The government is ready to talk onevery issue and it will guarantee safety and security of Maoist leaders."Deuba had held the first unsuccessful peace talks with the Maoists back in 2001.
In response, the Maoists have questioned the credibility of the government.Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka 'Prachanda' recently released a statementin response to the government's call for negotiations, clarifying that theMaoists were ready for negotiations with the real masters of authority and notservants - a clear indication that he is not keen to talk with the King's puppetgovernment.
After the festival season ended, the Maoists have stepped up their activitiesthroughout the country. A Royal Nepalese Army convoy was attacked at Dhading onthe Prithivi highway 40 miles west of the capital, killing half-a-dozen Armypersonnel. In another significant attack, they targeted the armed police forceat Bardiya, 700 kilometers west of Kathmandu near the east-west highway. Theyalso blockaded sections of the east-west highway for a week in far westernregion. A succession of sudden attacks has come amid reports that Maoists werepreparing a final assault against the government forces.
However, the Maoists have also received several setbacks in recent weeks. Peopleliving in 12 village development committee areas in the Dullu region - a heavilyMaoist affected villages 600 kilometers west of capital - revolted against therebels. The uprising began after the Maoists started forcibly recruitingfull-time cadres. More than 20,000 people spontaneously organized a rally in theareas denouncing Maoist atrocities. The United Peoples Front (UPF), anotherradical communist outfit, has also been organizing rallies against Maoistatrocities in the western districts, following a series of physical assaultsagainst their workers.
Security forces have recently claimed that they have seized full control overthe Maoist strategic centre in the far-west, in the Pandaun areas of KailaliDistrict, 700 kilometer west of Kathmandu. Officials stated that ten securityforce (SF) personnel were killed in the clash and another 18 injured. TheDivisional Commander Royal Nepalese Army in the far-western region, BrigadierGeneral Rajendra Bahadur Thapa estimated that some 300 Maoists could have beenkilled in the incident. According to security forces, about 2,000 armed Maoistswere present at the time of the assault.
These setbacks notwithstanding, the Maoists continue to terrorize largepopulations and roam freely in the remote areas of the country, where there isno SF presence. Since they continue to maintain a formidable presence in ruralareas, the Maoist still seem to be in no mood to resume the negotiations.
The impact of their activities is reverberating beyond Nepal's borders. Sinceany violence and disturbance in Nepal is certain to have spillover effects inIndian States, Nepalese and Indian security officials, over the past months,seem to be increasingly worried about growing contacts between Nepalese andIndian Maoists. Indian Maoists are said to share military and organizationalexperience with their Nepalese comrades.
Nepal and India share a 1,600 kilometer long porous border along four IndianStates: Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and Uttaranchal. BorderSecurity Force (BSF) Inspector General (North Bengal) S.K. Dutta disclosedrecently that other (non-Marxist) militant groups such as the KamtapurLiberation Organisation (KLO) were trying to set up training camps in Jhapaclose to the India-Nepal border. The BSF claimed that the number of trainingcamps in Nepal was around 100, with each camp training some 50 Indian militantsalong with Nepalese Maoist cadres.
The devastations that the conflict has already wrought is incalculable. InformalSector Service Center (INSEC) - a human rights NGO - claims that more than10,000 people have already lost their lives due to the Maoist conflict in lastnine year. Thousands of others have been injured and billions of rupees worth ofproperty has been destroyed by the Maoists.
According to the Public Relations Directorate of the Royal Nepalese Army, around2,700 Maoists and 163 army personnel have already been killed since thebreakdown of the second truce on August 27, 2003. In addition, an unconfirmed500 Maoists are also suspected to have been killed in the same period. 1,147Maoists have already surrendered since the government introduced an amnestypackage. According to Home Ministry spokesman Gopendra Bahadur Pandey, over6,500 Maoists have been killed in encounters with the SFs since the start oftheir 'people's war'. 1,500 police personnel lost their lives during the sameperiod. Likewise, over 200 personnel of the Armed Police Force have also losttheir lives. The Royal Nepalese Army now has a presence in some 2,000 villagesout of the country's 4,000. The military presence was increased after thedeclaration of a state of emergency in 2001.
With no visible indication of an early resumption of the peace process, secretmoves and countermoves persist on both sides with the aim of securing anadvantage in the conflict.
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Keshab Poudel is Managing Editor, Spotlight Weekly Magazine, Kathmandu,Nepal. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia TerrorismPortal
