US intelligence indicates the Kremlin believes America’s prolonged Iran campaign has reduced its military capacity and room to respond elsewhere.
Ratcliffe’s Moscow talks focused on the risks of a wider Russian escalation in Ukraine and its potential impact on Trump’s approach to Kyiv.
Falling US air-defence and weapons stocks are raising concerns about Washington’s ability to support Ukraine and reassure allies in Europe and Asia.
US intelligence has assessed that the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the six-month-old war with Iran, potentially giving Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The assessment came shortly before CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secret trip to Moscow this week for talks with his Russian counterpart. According to The Washington Post, Ratcliffe warned Russian officials against significantly escalating the war in Ukraine, arguing that such a move would backfire. He also warned that an escalation could push US President Donald Trump towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Details of the talks remain classified. The people familiar with the matter spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. The CIA and White House declined to comment on Ratcliffe’s visit.
Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on Tuesday morning aboard a C-17A military transport aircraft after stopping in Riga, the Latvian capital. Tracking data showed that the aircraft left Moscow at 5:30 pm, about eight-and-a-half hours after it landed.
A video shared on social media showed a motorcade of cars, some with diplomatic number plates, travelling through central Moscow.
The visit was the first known visit to Moscow by a CIA director since late 2021, when President Joe Biden’s spy chief, William J. Burns, attempted to sway the Kremlin from an invasion of Ukraine.
Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, confirmed the talks with Ratcliffe, saying there was “nothing unusual” about the meetings.
The Kremlin said Ratcliffe did not meet Putin.
The intelligence assessment comes amid reports of reduced US troop readiness and munitions shortages resulting from the prolonged campaign against Tehran.
US stockpiles of key weapons have been severely depleted, including Patriot and other air-defence systems. Supplies of sophisticated offensive weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and the Army Tactical Missile System, have also come under pressure. The Army Tactical Missile System is also in demand in Ukraine.
The Washington Post previously reported that the United States had lost roughly a quarter of its Reaper drones, which cost between $30 million and $50 million each and are used for surveillance and targeting.
The weapons shortages have alarmed allies in Asia, raising questions about Washington’s ability to deter a potential confrontation with China.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have publicly denied that there are serious munitions shortages, even as they have pressed arms manufacturers to rapidly increase weapons production.
The people familiar with the intelligence did not provide details about how it was collected or how confident CIA analysts are about the assessment of Putin’s view of the US strategic position.
Ukraine has hit high-profile targets, frequently aiming at key nodes in Russia’s energy industry and online commerce. Moscow continues to bombard civilian targets such as apartment blocks, along with industrial infrastructure and power plants across Ukraine.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukraine’s dwindling stockpile of air-defence interceptors, which have been supplied by the United States. European countries have pledged to provide Kyiv with missile interceptors, but many are not expected to arrive until next year.
Ratcliffe’s trip was “less about Putin being in a corner” because his army has failed to break the stalemate on the Ukraine battlefield “and more because Russia assesses we are depleted and can’t intervene,” one of the people familiar with the matter said.
According to The Washington Post, Ratcliffe told Russian officials that if Putin significantly escalated the war in Ukraine, it would push Trump towards Zelensky.
Europe has also faced hybrid-warfare attacks, including an attempted drone strike at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport. Many analysts and some governments have said the incident appears to be the work of Russia.
Trump on Thursday downplayed concerns that Putin would order an attack on US allies in Europe. “He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory,” Trump said, while brushing off a question about the purpose of Ratcliffe’s trip.
