Southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from West Rajasthan around September 19.
All-India rainfall deficit has reached 15%, with several regions facing major shortfalls.
IMD forecasts widespread rain this week across northwest, west, south and eastern India.
The southwest monsoon is expected to begin retreating from September 19, while the all-India rainfall deficit stands at 15%, the India Meteorological Department stated on Monday. IMD said the current season has been severely hit by a strengthening El Nino, leaving several districts in the western, southern and northeastern parts of the country in a rainfall deficit that is unlikely to be bridged back.
The retreat is expected to start in west Rajasthan around September 19, compared with the normal withdrawal date of September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began as early as September 14.
Many parts of the country are likely to see more rain this week, especially in the west, northwest and parts of the south peninsula.
Rainfall Outlook This Week
IMD said a low-pressure area lies over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat. It also identified a trough across Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, along with an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD stated in a statement on Monday. The department forecast fairly widespread rain over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15 to 17.
Rain is also likely across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on September 16 and 17. IMD further said isolated activity is expected over west and east Rajasthan from September 15 to 17, while isolated scattered rain is likely across Uttar Pradesh till September 18.
IMD said isolated heavy spells are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till September, over Kerala and Puducherry’s Mahe town till September 16 and over south Karnataka on September 15.
Isolated heavy spells are likely along coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from September 18 to 20, while Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha may see isolated showers till September 20.
In the east, fairly widespread activity is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim till September 20. Bihar may get similar conditions on September 16 and 17 and Odisha from September 19 to 20.
Deficit Across Regions
The all-India monsoon deficit had widened to 40% in June before widespread July rain reduced it to 13% by the end of that month. The deficit then stood at 14% at the end of August and slipped to 15% as of September 13.
The south peninsula has the deepest regional shortfall at 28%. East and northeast India follow at 25%, while central India is down 6% and northwest India 10% below normal.
Several states remain far below normal and are unlikely to recover, IMD data show. Punjab has a 40% deficit, Haryana 23%, Rajasthan 25% and Bihar 35%.
The shortfall is also large in the south. Karnataka is down 29%, Kerala 27%, Telangana 20%, Andhra Pradesh 43% and Tamil Nadu 26%. Arunachal Pradesh has a 42% deficit and Meghalaya 59%
