Four years after brute legislative might saw India’s northernmost state bifurcated into two union territories, debate in Jammu and Kashmir is piquing over the impact of the possible imposition of the One Nation One Election (ONOE) norm in the country.
As winter approaches the troubled region and the likelihood of the electoral fate of India’s Parliament and state assemblies being settled in one round of polls looms closer, a wave of apprehension and an odd gust of cynicism appear to have frosted on the foreheads of the political class.
While there are notes of worry that the ONOE will obliterate regional issues from electoral politics, in Jammu and Kashmir, political parties are apprehensive about something else too. Will the ONOE exclude the union territory from the mammoth and unprecedented electoral process?
The last state assembly elections were conducted in J&K in 2014. Since then, the issue of conducting polls has been ping-ponged between the central government on one side of the table and the Election Commission of India (ECI) on the other.
While the government claims it is the ECI’s responsibility to conduct polls, the Commission, on the other hand, has maintained that it is aware of the incumbent political vacuum but has made no indication about the likelihood of elections.
National Conference (NC) vice president and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is against the very concept of ONOE, likening it to the BJP's other agendas, which he claims, are aimed at weakening regional parties and the federal structure of the country.
For Omar, it is too early to talk about the contentious proposal with former President of India Ram Nath Kovind's committee, tasked with assessing the feasibility of a ‘one nation, one election’ policy, not holding any meetings so far.
The former CM is not even optimistic about polls being held in J&K even if the ONOE policy is approved. "I still don't trust them," says Abdullah, who has been seeking polls in J&K for long and has accused the BJP of not holding the polls in the region, fearing defeat.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), like the NC, claims holding ONOE amounts to an attack on India’s federal structure, drawing a parallel between the proposed move and the abrogation of Article 370, which the party maintains “demolished constitutional structure in Jammu and Kashmir”.
“I see ‘One Nation One Election’ as Article 370-like moment for the country,” says Naeem Akhtar, senior PDP leader and spokesperson.
The party believes that holding polls in J&K, with or without government approval of ONOE, won't benefit the region.
"The elections wouldn't benefit Jammu and Kashmir until we have an empowered assembly. Even if they hold elections under ONOE in J&K or without it, they will continue to rule it from the Centre. It doesn't impact us in any case,” Akhtar says.
“The current government has reduced Jammu and Kashmir to a security project from a full-fledged state," he adds.
After the 2014 state assembly polls failed to throw up a clear majority, the BJP and the PDP formed a coalition government headed by Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti under the principle of an ‘agenda of alliance’ (AoA). The AoA was considered a progressive document with the involved parties agreeing to put Article 370 in deep freeze for six years and agreed to follow former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's "Insaaniyat, Kashmiriyat aur Jamhooriyat" approach towards Kashmir.
It further stated that the coalition government would facilitate and help initiate a sustained and meaningful dialogue with all internal stakeholders, including all political groups, irrespective of their ideological views and predilections. It even talked about making cross-LoC trade robust.
Much water has flowed down the Jhelum since.
The BJP-PDP coalition government fell despite the AoA, after the BJP withdrew its support in 2018. J&K has been without an elected assembly since November 2018, when it was dissolved by then Governor Satya Pal Malik, soon after Mehbooba Mufti staked a claim to form the government. J&K was then placed under Governor's rule.
On August 15, 2019, the central government abrogated Article 370 and Article 35A and bifurcated Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories, Jammu and Kashmir UT with a legislature and Ladakh UT without a legislature.
Speaking in Parliament, while moving a resolution to repeal Article 370, Home Minister Amit Shah countered apprehensions raised by several legislators and assured the people of J&K that “the status of the State would be restored once the situation normalises”.
The government had also promised to hold elections in J&K after the Delimitation Commission submits its recommendations. But the uneasy status quo continues.
Even on August 30 this year, while appearing before a Constitution Bench headed by Chief Justice of India D.Y. Chandrachud in the Article 370 case, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta was not sure about the restoration of statehood.
"Complete statehood may take some time, as the State had faced repeated and consistent disturbances for decades together… I assure you, we are progressively proceeding to make J&K a complete State," Mehta said, without hinting at a timeline.
Political parties continue to urge the ECI to conduct polls, although the decision to reinstate J&K's statehood rests with the government and was discussed during the Article 370 hearing in the Supreme Court.
On May 6 last year, the Delimitation Commission after concluding its two-year-long process, proposed the establishment of six additional assembly constituencies in the Jammu region and one more in the Kashmir Valley.
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Regional political parties, particularly the National Conference, PDP and Peoples Conference, strongly objected to the Commission's recommendations. In their opposition to the final delimitation order, the PDP and People's Conference characterised it as an effort to "disempower" the people of Kashmir.
While Mehbooba Mufti of the PDP flatly rejected it, likening it to an exercise similar to Article 370 aimed at disempowering the people of J&K, the Peoples Conference labelled it as "systematic disempowerment of Kashmiris since 1947."
Despite these firm observations, political parties anticipated that the conclusion of the electoral map-redrawing process in Jammu and Kashmir would clear the path for Union Territory assembly elections. Nevertheless, following the Delimitation Commission's report, the ECI commenced the revision of the voter list, which was finalised in November last year. Since then, various political parties, especially the National Conference, have again been advocating for elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
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This year on March 6, National Conference president Dr. Farooq Abdullah led a delegation of all political parties to the ECI, asking it to fulfil its constitutional obligation to hold assembly elections in J&K.
"The panchayat elections and elections to other PRIs (Panchayati Raj Institutions) cannot be a substitute for legislative assembly elections, and the government and, for that matter, the ECI cannot avoid and delay assembly elections on that ground. Had it been so, there would be no need to conduct assembly elections in states," the memorandum presented to the ECI read.
The memorandum didn’t yield any results.
Defending the abrogation of Article 370 before the Supreme Court, Mehta had said, "investments" are pouring in and tourism in J&K had received a shot in the arm with the arrival of over 16 lakh tourists after the abrogation of Article 370. In spite of the government's claims of ensuring peace and bringing investment to Jammu and Kashmir, assembly elections continue to be elusive in J&K.
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The possibility of the introduction of ONOE has come with a sliver of hope for those political parties, like the NC, that are rooting for state polls in J&K.
"Our party doesn't support ONOE. It will marginalise regional parties and regional issues," says Tanvir Sadiq, NC’s chief spokesman. His comment carries the baggage of a sarcastic dig aimed at the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party though, suggesting that even if it is within the ONOE framework, at least finally an election could potentially take place in J&K.
But, will it?
Dr. Nirmal Singh, former Deputy Chief Minister maintains ONOE would be beneficial for the whole country, including J&K. The BJP leader states that the proposal is not new, as it was in place before the 1960s in the country. Dr. Singh argues that when ONOE becomes a reality, it will be implemented throughout the entire country. Dr. Singh mentions that in exceptional circumstances, certain areas are exempted, and Jammu and Kashmir is one such region.
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“Remember, when the Congress party was ruling the country, no elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir until 1996,” he adds. Dr Singh, however adds that J&K has come out of the extraordinary situation after the abrogation of Article 370.
There is however, one more political voice in J&K which backs the ONOE.
According to Salman Nizami, senior leader of the Democratic Progressive Azad party, the ONOE will reduce election expenditure and decrease the burden on government employees, who are on election duty frequently.
Nizami hopes J&K will be part of this exercise as the former state is an integral part of India and will not be exempted from the mammoth poll exercise.
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And there, perhaps, lies a clue, embedded in Nizami’s confidence in the ONOE.
His party leader, former parliamentarian and ex J&K Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad is part of the very committee headed by Kovind that is tasked with examining and making recommendations for holding simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.
Perhaps Nizami’s faith in the ONOE stems from his party boss Azad’s significant role in shaping its future.
