For more than a decade, Narendra Modi’s electoral dominance seemed to have rendered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) almost immune to attack. The Opposition fired one salvo after another, but few found their mark. Allegations of electronic voting machine manipulation came and went. Charges of kickbacks in the Rafale fighter jet deal made headlines but failed to ignite sustained public anger. The Congress and regional parties kept attacking, only to watch their accusations fizzle out before they could inflict lasting political damage. Modi appeared untouchable.
But things have changed fast. Within months of the BJP celebrating 12 years in power at the Centre, the party finds itself constantly on the back foot.
Few who have tracked Indian politics over the past decade could have imagined the BJP on the defensive, forced to sacrifice its education minister under pressure from a protest movement led by a generation that was still in school when the party first came to power in 2014. What once seemed unthinkable is now unfolding in plain sight.
The agitation that led to Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation in June, however, was only the beginning. Subsequent events have proved that outfits such as the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) succeeded in channelling some of the goodwill and organisation from the anti-Pradhan agitation to subsequent protests, such as the issue of alleged wholesale culling of opposition voters from electoral rolls through special intensive revision (SIR).
Sensing a shift in popular mood, the Opposition has sharpened its stance, demanding the cancellation of the SIR of electoral rolls and the resignation of chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. The BJP, accustomed to setting the political agenda, is yet to come to grips with the change. In the new paradigm of protests, there is no past scandal for the party to rake up in defence, no politician to besmirch and no single organisation to contain. So far, every attempt to rein in the protests has only made them stronger. In what must bring eerie reminders of the Anna Hazare agitation, the party now stares at the prospect of a series of popular protests threatening to converge into something larger.
A Movement Without a Centre
Tellingly, the issues that have brought young protestors to the street are not new. The Congress has been raising the issue of SIR for a long time. However, the impact is different and the actors are drawn from a wider pool. The protests have now spread beyond the traditional Opposition—to student organisations, farmer outfits, public intellectuals and, of course, the CJP.
Political commentator Neerja Chowdhury believes the presence of varied groups has been critical to the increased resilience of the protests. When the CJP takes to the streets in Mumbai, the Congress mobilises in Delhi. When CJP leaders land in jail, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) leaders join in elsewhere. In Mumbai, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena held a large rally, two days after the CJP’s rally on October 2. The movement, in other words, keeps shifting, changing shape and finding new voices. “A dance is going on, Lord Shiva’s dance. And anyone can join Shivji ki baraat [the wedding procession of Lord Shiva],” Rahul Gandhi announced at a press conference on October 12. “The movement gained momentum because if the CJP and the Congress, though the largest opposition group, will have to stoop to conquer,” adds Chowdhury.
Even the presence of ideologically incompatible, and even opposed, groups and apparent disagreements about the scope of protests don’t seem to matter. For example, the CJP has restricted its demand to Kumar’s resignation, while the Opposition is looking at a bigger, electoral agenda. “The priority is to remove this government,” says SP member of parliament (MP) Rajeev Rai. “There will be differences, but when the larger objective is shared, they need not become an obstacle.”
The SIR, with its perceived threat for opposition parties, seems to have provided the immediate, common cause to rally around. “Whether it is the Congress, the Left, the DMK or the RJD, we are speaking in one voice,” says Rashtriya Janata Dal MP Manoj Jha, who sees the campaign as directed against an “architecture of illegality and fraud”.
BJP’s Dilemma
The BJP has, meanwhile, attempted its usual strategy of discrediting and downplaying its detractors, linking the issue to vote-bank politics and communal polarisation, with little effect. It realises that further heavy-handed attempts to restrict the protests could lend credence to the charge that the government is intolerant of democratic dissent, which would further fuel indignation and discontent.
Indeed, repression has so far proved counterproductive, going by the example of the Gandhi Jayanti protests. These passed off peacefully in Mumbai as the police handled the demonstrators without confrontation, while in Delhi, the administration took a harder line, stopping protesters at barricades and manhandling them. As Chowdhury points out, scenes of young people, women and older protesters being dragged and pushed around can quickly turn public opinion.
In politics, another chance is rarely an outcome in itself. It is an opportunity. The opposition must make the most of it.
On the narrative front, the party has been holding press briefings with increasing frequency. But it also recognises that repeated responses keep the issue alive. Finally, there is increasing realisation within the party that some of the unrest is the result of economic discontent and unemployment.
Political scientist Gilles Verniers, a researcher at Centre for International Studies, Paris, says what often determines the trajectory and impact of such movements is not how many people turn up, but how the government responds. “The more the government cracks down, the more it lends credence to what the opposition is saying,” he says.
The detentions in different cities and the associated legal scrutiny have added to the government’s woes. During a special hearing on October 11, a Supreme Court bench of Justices Joymalya Bagchi and V. Mahadevan directed the authorities to ensure that peaceful protesters were not subjected to illegal detention, stressing that people could not be detained outside areas covered by prohibitory orders except in accordance with the law.
The court also questioned the restrictions imposed on public movement and transport, observing that curbs on assembly and movement must comply with the Constitution. It found a prima facie case of contempt over the alleged breach of its earlier directions.
The decision on October 12 to remove Jantar Mantar as a designated protest site has also created a new problem. When the Delhi Police denied permission to protest at Jantar Mantar, the parties took their demonstration to the arterial Barakhamba Road. This made it harder for the authorities to contain the campaign simply by denying permission to gather at one location. It also offered a glimpse of how the campaign might evolve.
Congress Takes Charge
The BJP’s confusion has been Congress’ opportunity. And in seizing that opportunity, Rahul Gandhi has been pragmatic rather than ideological. Instead of treating the divergent protesting voices as rivals, he has adopted a strategy of co-option and cooperation instead of competition or dismissal. He has made conciliatory statements aimed at the CJP, reiterating that both represent the same struggle against the BJP and the Election Commission. Reports suggest that CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke was invited to the tea party held at Gandhi’s residence a couple of days after the protest. Similarly, Neha Bora of All India Students’ Association, the student wing of the CPI(ML) Liberation, was seen arriving at the protest on Barakhamba Road on the same bus as Mallikarjun Kharge, the Gandhis, Akhilesh Yadav and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee.
Moreover, the agitations and the government’s responses have handed more weapons to the Opposition to use against the BJP. After the July agitation, Gandhi held a press conference with students who had pellets lodged in their bodies, including one who had lost his eyesight. Gandhi later staged a dharna, keeping the focus on the police action and forcing questions about the use of pellet guns. A first information report was eventually registered in the pellet-gun case, and the question of who had ordered their use reached all the way to the doorstep of Home Minister Amit Shah. This time too, Gandhi brought those at the receiving end of the police lathi charge in front of the cameras.
For now, Gandhi’s strategy of using the wider movement to broaden the party’s appeal seems to be working. Divya, a student who attended Congress and Opposition’s rally on October 12 on Barakhamba Road, said the event offered a chance to demonstrate without the fear of being detained. “The cause is the same,” says Sneha, another protester. “The agenda is the same. Each step takes us closer to demanding the removal of Gyanesh Kumar.”
Gandhi has also shown political acumen, such as in linking the mobilisation to an unscripted Shiv tandav. However, the statement hides more than it reveals. While the impulse is spontaneous, the Congress is working hard to bring various groups together behind the scenes. The party believes that sustaining the protest momentum will require organisation beyond individual demonstrations, including coordination among parties with different political interests and priorities.
Verniers believes Gandhi is gradually emerging as the leader of the political opposition, with other parties taking their cues from him. Arguably, this was the reason why Banerjee, a known sceptic on Gandhi’s leadership credentials, reportedly told Gandhi at a recent INDIA bloc meeting: “I’m not egoistic. You can be the PM.”
The Way Forward
For more than a decade, the Opposition’s salvos fizzled before they could do lasting damage. Now, it finds itself in a position of rare strength, invigorated by events beyond the traditional political scene.
However, says Chowdhury, gaining goodwill by raising the issue of electoral rolls is not enough. “If you don’t win elections, goodwill doesn’t add up to much,” she says, highlighting the importance of getting wrongly deleted voters back on the rolls. Even if only half of those removed from the electoral rolls are legitimate voters, says Verniers, the number of people affected could be substantial: “That’s a whole lot of support for the Opposition.”
SP’s Rai, meanwhile, emphasises that the fight will have to move beyond the SIR itself. Many voters, he says, may not understand the revision process, so the Opposition must connect it to concerns that affect their everyday lives. “We have to explain to voters that the problems they face, from unemployment and corruption to the lack of development, are linked to the government in power,” he says, an opinion endorsed by RJD’s Jha.
For now, the protests remain amorphous, with no single organisational structure or agreed political direction beyond the immediate cause. Whether the campaign translates into a sustained political movement will depend on what happens beyond the protests and whether voters can connect it with their everyday concerns. In politics, another chance is rarely an outcome in itself. It is an opportunity. The Opposition now has to show that it can do more with it than organise the next protest.
Ashlin Mathew is senior associate editor, Outlook
