The Smell Of War

This war is not about terrorism.

This war is not about weapons of mass destruction.

This war is not about democracy in Iraq.

This war is about something else.

As for terrorism: Saddam Hussein is a cruel dictator, but the idea that he might be connected with Osamabin Laden is ridiculous. Sadam heads the Iraqi section of al-Baath, a very secular party. Bin Laden is anIslamic Fundamentalist, and al-Kaida aims at the destruction of all secular regimes in our region. Theofficial who invented this particular lie is either an ignoramus or a cynic who believes that one can fool allthe people at least some of the time.

As for weapons of mass destruction: the USA supported Saddam when he used deadly poison gas against theIranians (and their Kurdish allies in Iraq). At the time, America was interested in stopping the Iranians.Today there are chemical and biological weapons in most of the countries of this region, including Egypt,Syria and Israel, and one of them has nuclear arms.

As for democracy: Americans don't give a damn. Some of their best friends in the Islamic world aredictators, some more, some less cruel then Saddam. As the old American adage goes: "He is ason-of-a-bitch, but he is our son-of-a-bitch."

If so, what is the war about?

In one word: oil.

There is a strong smell of oil in the air. Without smelling it, one cannot understand what is going on. Butonce one grasps what it is all about, the actions of Bush & Co., while cynical and hypocritical, areutterly logical.

These, then, are the American war aims:

# To take over the immense oil reserves of Iraq, among the world's biggest.

#To ensure American control of the nearby huge Caspian Sea oil reserves

# To reinforce indirect American control of the oil in all the Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwaitand Iran.

Control of most of the worlds oil reserves will free the Americans, at long last, from the whims of the oilmarket. Their hand, and theirs alone, will be on the tab. They, and they alone, will fix the prices of oil allover the world. If they will want prices to rise, they will rise. If they will want them to go down, they willgo down. With one single movement of the hand, they will be able to deal a crushing blow to the economies ofGermany, France and Japan. No country in the world will be able to stand up to them in any matter. No wonderthat Germany and France oppose the war. It is directed against them.

It follows that the Americans do not intend to enter Iraq, establish democracy and leave. The very idea isridiculous.

The US enters Iraq in order to stay there, for years and decades. Its physical presence in the Arab andMuslim world will create a new geo-political reality.

Of course, this is not the first time that a great empire uses its military power to promote its economicdominance. History is full of examples. Indeed, one could say that all of history is an example. But there hasnever been a super-power like the US, with no rival left, using its immense military might in order to ensureits domination of the world economy for generations to come.

From this point of view, the coming war on Iraq - a "small" war, militarily - will have historicsignificance.

For sure, Bush will try to set up some native Iraqi government, in order to disguise and lend somelegitimacy to the American occupation. There are any number of volunteers, ready to serve as Quislings. Thenagain, Bush may prefer some new Saddam Hussein, a dictator appointed by them.

But war is war. War usually starts with a well-prepared plan, but even the "best" plan, backed bythe mightiest military power, can go awry. The Arab masses may rise against their American-supported, corrupt,lackadaisical governments. The Turks may perpetrate a massacre in the north of Iraq in order to break theKurds once and for all, and no one can know how this will end. The holy places of the Shiites in the south ofIraq, next to Iran, may cause trouble.

How will this affect Israel? Or, to use the old phrase: "Is it good for the Jews?"

The relations between Bush and Sharon are almost symbiotic. In Sharon's view, the massive presence of theUS in our region strengthens Israel and will enable him to implement his hidden agenda.

But, as one says in Hebrew, "the fat tail of the sheep has a thorn in it". The permanentoccupation of Iraq turns the US into a kind of "Arab" power, with a vital interest in the stabilityand tranquility of the region. It will want to prevent by all means chaos in the Arab countries - before,during and after the war.

Sharon and his generals are, on the contrary, interested in as much chaos as possible, in order to use itto "transfer" millions of Palestinians to the other side of the Jordan. There is a definite conflictof interest between Bush as Sharon.

Sharon, an extremist but prudent person, knows that he must not under any circumstances infuriate Bush. Hewill act cautiously. He has lots and lots of patience and lots and lots of stubbornness. He will try to obtainfrom Bush permission to transfer (at least some) Palestinians, to murder of Arafat ("If Sadam, why notArafat?) and to break the Palestinian people.

Bush, on the other hand, will want Israel to stay quiet, very quiet. At thee time, he may use the Israelthreat in order to ensure that the Arabs, too, will stay quiet, very quiet. He will threaten the Arab rulers,who are mortally afraid of an uprising of their peoples, that if they do not behave, he will let Sharon offthe leash.

Is all this good for Israel? From the economic, social and security points of view, the answer is negative.We are entering an era of adventurism, with the adventurer No. 1 at the helm of our state. The earth willshake in our region, and nobody can foresee the dangers approaching us. Only one thing is certain: this willnot bring peace.

I do not belong to those who can speak about war with equanimity. I have seen war, I know its face. I seethe thousands who will be killed, the tens of thousands that will be wounded and maimed, the hundreds ofthousands that will become refugees, the ruined families, the sea of tears and human suffering.

I join the millions all over the world the say NO.