Netanyahu could retain power even if Likud loses seats, provided his allies can assemble a parliamentary majority.
Opposition leaders face their own challenge in overcoming political differences to form Israel’s next government.
Smaller parties and coalition negotiations could prove decisive in determining Netanyahu’s political future.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose parliamentary seats and still remain in power if his Likud party and its allies can secure enough support to form a government. With neither the governing bloc nor the opposition assured of a majority, the election may be decided as much by coalition negotiations as by the results themselves.
Israel votes on Tuesday amid questions over Netanyahu’s handling of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the wars that followed, his corruption trial and disputes over military-service exemptions and judicial reforms. But even if voters turn against his government, removing him from office will depend on whether rival parties can agree on a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament, PTI reported.
Why Winning the Most Seats May Not Be Enough
Israel elects all 120 members of the Knesset, its parliament, through a nationwide proportional representation system. Voters choose party lists rather than individual candidates, with seats allocated according to each party’s share of the vote. A party must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the vote to enter parliament.
The system allows several parties to win seats, making coalition governments central to Israeli politics. No party has ever won an outright majority on its own, and a government needs the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset.
After the election, the president consults political factions and tasks a lawmaker considered best placed to form a government. Winning the most seats does not automatically guarantee power; the candidate must secure enough parliamentary support to command a majority.
This is where Netanyahu’s prospects become complicated. His right-wing bloc includes far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, alongside the ultra-Orthodox Shas party. United Torah Judaism, another ultra-Orthodox party, broke with Netanyahu’s coalition amid the dispute over military-service exemptions. If his remaining allies cannot secure enough seats, Netanyahu will need additional support to form a government.
The same arithmetic applies to the opposition. Even if its parties collectively win more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc, they must still find a way to secure parliamentary support for an alternative government. Smaller parties crossing the electoral threshold could affect the balance of seats, while post-election negotiations would determine which camp can assemble a majority.
Opposition Gains May Not Translate Into A New Government
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party, and former prime minister Naftali Bennett are among the main challengers to Netanyahu. However, the opposition is divided across parties with different political positions, which could make it difficult to assemble a majority even if they collectively perform better than Netanyahu’s allies.
Eisenkot has criticised the government for lacking a clear strategy during the war and has presented himself as an alternative on governance and security. He previously served as an observer in Netanyahu’s war cabinet before resigning in June 2024.
Bennett is leading the B’Yachad alliance, which includes former prime minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party. A right-wing politician who opposes Palestinian independence and supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, Bennett has criticised Netanyahu’s handling of security and governance. He briefly served as prime minister in 2021 under a power-sharing arrangement with Lapid.
Other opposition figures include Yair Golan, who leads the left-leaning Democrats, and Avigdor Liberman, head of Yisrael Beiteinu. Arab-led parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, could also influence the parliamentary balance.
The opposition also faces differences over security, Palestinian statehood and cooperation with Arab-led parties. Mainstream opposition leaders have been reluctant to include Arab-led parties in formal governing coalitions, although Arab parties could still influence the parliamentary balance through other forms of support. This could complicate efforts to assemble a majority if the opposition’s own parties fall short.
Opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition has a clear path to 61 seats. If the results leave parliament divided, rival parties may face weeks of negotiations over possible partnerships, support arrangements or a minority government. If no workable government emerges, the country could face another election, PTI reported.
War, Military Exemptions And Judicial Reforms Could Shape Coalition Talks
Netanyahu’s political standing has been shaped by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel and triggered the war in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, 74,559 Palestinians had been killed and 175,727 injured as of October 26, 2026.
The government’s handling of the attack and the security failures preceding it remain central to the debate over Netanyahu’s leadership. He also faces charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery, which he denies. In 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Yet the election is not solely a referendum on the war or Netanyahu’s record. Disputes over military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men have strained his coalition and could influence the next government’s formation.
Most Jewish Israeli men are required to serve in the military, while ultra-Orthodox men studying in religious seminaries have historically received broad exemptions or deferments. The issue has become more contentious as the military faces manpower demands and reservists are called up for extended periods.
In 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that blanket exemptions could not continue without legislation. Shas has said it will not support a future government without legislation regulating the status of religious seminary students. Both Shas and United Torah Judaism have sought to protect religious education and funding for their institutions.
Netanyahu’s proposed judicial changes, which would increase elected politicians’ influence over judicial appointments and limit aspects of judicial review, have also fuelled disputes over the independence of democratic institutions.
These issues matter beyond the campaign because coalition partners can use their seats to demand policy commitments in exchange for supporting a government. Netanyahu may need to make concessions to retain religious and far-right allies, while his opponents would have to reconcile their own differences to form an alternative administration.
The outcome will depend on whether Netanyahu’s allies can secure enough seats to form a government or whether his opponents can assemble an alternative majority. With neither side assured of the numbers needed, smaller parties and post-election negotiations could determine who becomes prime minister, PTI reported.
