What Past Poll Data Says About Rajasthan Elections; Will Congress Be Back?

The desert state of Rajasthan will go to polls on November 23 and the results will be declared on December 3, 2023, said the Election Commission of India (ECI) in its presser held in New Delhi on Monday. 

For Rajasthan, the last date for nominations of candidates is November 6, whereas the scrutiny of nominations shall take place on November 7 and the last date for withdrawal of candidature is November 9. With the announcement of the election dates, both Congress and BJP are gearing up to announce their first list of candidates. 

5.25 Crore Voters Across 200 Assembly Seats

Rajasthan has a total of 5.25 crore voters, including 2.73 crore males, 2.51 crore females and 604 transgender people. Of these, 18,462 are older than 100 years, 11.8 lakh are above 80 and 21.9 lakh are first-time voters, as per the data shared by the ECI during a presser in Jaipur, last week. Moreover, 29,643 newlyweds were registered through special camps.

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar also said that 1,600 polling stations will be managed by women, 200 by persons with disabilities and 1,600 by newly recruited youths. The poll process at 50 per cent of the 51,756 polling stations will be webcast.

Back in 2018, there were a total of 4.75 lakh voters, including 2.48 lakh males, 2.26 lakh females and 349 transgender people. During the 2018 assembly elections in Rajasthan, the overall voter turnout was recorded at 74.71 per cent.

The Number Game

The Rajasthan Assembly comprises 200 seats, out of which 141 are general seats whereas 34 and 25 seats are reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe categories. At present, the ruling Congress party has 108 seats, followed by the opposition BJP with 70 seats, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has two seats, Rashtriya Lok Dal one seat, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party three seats, Bhartiya Tribal Party two seats and there are thirteen Independent candidates as well.

In December 2018, the Congress in Rajasthan swept assembly elections even after it fell one short to cross the majority of 101 of the 200 assembly seats. Congress won 99 seats out of 199 seats on which elections were held. Whereas the opposition BJP led by the former chief minister Vasundhara Raje was reduced to 73 seats from a huge tally of 163 seats, on the contrary, the Congress party performed well under the presidentship of party chief Sachin Pilot and rose from 21 seats to 99. Congress then appointed Ashok Gehlot as the chief minister for a third time and Sachin Pilot who was then heading the Pradesh Congress Committee in the state, was made his deputy. Later in 2020, Pilot was removed from both posts after he revolted against the Gehlot government.

A month later, Safiya Zubair of Congress won one from Ramgarh in Alwar district and the tally reached 100. Later, Congress won two seats in bypolls. In 2019, Congress candidate Rita Chaudhary won from Mandawa in 2019, and subsequently, Nagraj won from Dhariawad in Pratapgarh district in 2021. Apart from this, the six BSP MLAs who were earlier supporting the Congress from outside joined the party in 2020. At present, the Congress has 108 sitting candidates. 

In 2018, the BJP suffered a negative vote share swing of 6.37 per cent against a positive swing of 6.23 per cent, when compared to 2013 polls.