The IMD expects the low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea to intensify into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 31.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast over the following two days, with rain expected in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
The IMD has forecast winds of 10–15 knots along the Andhra coast, strengthening during thunderstorms, but has not issued a port warning or storm-surge advisory.
A low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands is likely to intensify into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal by October 31 before moving towards the Andhra Pradesh coast over the following two days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The weather system, which moved west-northwestwards from its earlier position, was located over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands at 8.30 am IST on October 30. The IMD said the system was likely to continue moving in a west-northwestward direction and concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas around Saturday.
Low-Pressure Area Likely To Intensify Over Bay Of Bengal
According to the IMD, the system is expected to move west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast during the two days following its likely formation into a depression. The weather department has indicated that the system could intensify further during this period, although its exact intensity and subsequent movement will depend on evolving atmospheric conditions. The latest forecast places the system over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea around October 31.
The new weather system has developed shortly after Cyclone Arnab affected parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. According to weather officials, the fresh low-pressure area could revive rainfall activity over parts of the east coast during the first week of November. The New Indian Express reported that Odisha's southern districts, including Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati and Ganjam, could receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 1. The IMD's latest coastal bulletin also forecast scattered rain or thundershowers along the north Andhra coast and isolated rainfall along the south Andhra coast.
Rainfall Forecast For Andhra Pradesh And Odisha
The system is expected to influence rainfall patterns along parts of the eastern coast as it moves closer to the mainland. The IMD has forecast mainly south-easterly winds of 10-15 knots along the north and south Andhra coasts, reaching up to 25 knots during thundershowers. Sea conditions are expected to remain slight but could become rough during thunderstorms. The coastal weather bulletin issued on October 30 did not indicate any port warning or storm-surge advisory for the Andhra coast.
Weather models have indicated varying possibilities regarding the system's further intensification and movement. While several models suggest that it could develop into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal, some forecasts indicate the possibility of further intensification. According to The Times of India, some independent weather trackers have also suggested a possible movement towards the north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts. However, the IMD's current forecast identifies the Andhra Pradesh coast as the likely direction of movement. The system's eventual intensity, trajectory and rainfall impact will become clearer as it develops over the coming days.
