Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32%, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
Trump’s economic record and immigration policies are shaping the midterm campaign.
The November 3 midterms will decide control of Congress.
For Donald Trump, the November midterm elections are about more than winning seats in Congress. They will show whether Americans believe he has delivered on the promises he made when he returned to the White House. And the answer could decide how much freedom he has to pursue his agenda over the next two years.
Trump is not on the ballot, but his record will be difficult for Republicans to escape. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for election on November 3. Republicans currently control both chambers, and Democrats are trying to take that control away.
Midterm elections are often seen as a vote on the president. Public frustration over the economy, higher fuel prices, and tensions with Iran have hurt Donald Trump’s popularity.
His approval rating, which stood at about 47% when he took office for his second term, has dropped to 37% on average. Some polls show it as low as 33% or 34%, according to Hindustan Times.
Much of the campaign comes down to a simple question: how do voters feel about the country under Trump?
The Economy Is Becoming A Problem For Republicans
Trump won the 2024 election by promising to lower prices and fix the economy. With groceries, housing, and gas still making it hard for many families to make ends meet, that promise is now being tested.
Inflation in the US rose to 3.7% in September, up from 3% when Trump took office in January 2025, according to a report from the Associated Press on October 27.
Even though the economy keeps growing and unemployment stays low, many Americans say their money just doesn't stretch as far as it used to.
That disconnect between numbers and real-life struggles could make a difference at the polls. A strong stock market or steady economic growth might not help people dealing with rising rent, food bills, and fuel prices.
Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran have added to the strain through higher fuel and transport costs.
Democrats are using these issues to argue that the administration has not delivered on its promise of affordability. Republicans on the other hand, are standing by their economic policies and pointing to signs of continued growth.
Drop In Trump’s Popularity
Trump’s popularity is another concern. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on October 26 put Trump’s approval rating at 32%. The same poll found that 47% of registered voters preferred Democrats for Congress compared with 36% who favoured Republicans. Among likely voters, the Democratic lead was 53% to 44%, according to Reuters.
These figures do not guarantee an election result. National polls cannot capture every contest, and the balance of power will depend on races across individual states and congressional districts.
Still, these numbers point to a challenge for Republicans. Candidates must defend their records while answering for a president whose approval ratings have fallen.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll reported that 22% of registered voters who supported Trump in 2024 now disapprove of Trump’s performance. Their concerns include living costs, trade policies, and the war with Iran.
Immigration Remains An Important Issue
Immigration helped Trump gain support in 2024. His administration has made tighter border enforcement and deportations the main part of its policies.
Republicans say the administration is keeping its promise to control immigration. Democrats have questioned its enforcement methods and raised concerns about deportations and encounters with federal agents.
The issue puts both parties in a spot. Republicans want voters to view enforcement as a win while Democrats want the administration's methods to be part of the discussion.
Immigration may not decide every race. It stays important in places where border security, migrant communities, and federal enforcement are big concerns.
What Happens If Democrats Gain Control?
The stakes extend beyond the election-night seat count. If Democrats take the House, they would gain control of its committees and greater power to investigate the administration. They could also use budget negotiations to challenge Trump's priorities.
Taking the Senate would be a separate challenge. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. The Senate map and the individual contests make that race different from the fight for the House.
A Democratic victory in either chamber would make it harder for Trump to move his agenda through Congress. If Republicans retain both, the president would have a clearer path to pursuing his legislative priorities.
Even with control of Congress, however, neither party can guarantee that every proposal will become law.
This time, voters will be weighing several issues at once: the cost of living, immigration, Trump's foreign policy and whether the administration has kept its promises. Local candidates and turnout will matter too.
For Republicans, the challenge is to persuade voters that Trump's record deserves continued support. Democrats, meanwhile, must convince voters that giving them control of Congress would offer a meaningful alternative.
