Orissa
Main Highlights:
- BJD is likely to do well due to positive perception about its Govt. and the NDA Govt. at Centre.
- Naveen Patniak positioning himself as crusader against corruption has helped the party
- Although several leaders have left the BJD but it has not resulted in any significant erosion in its vote base.
| Forecast Of Votes And Seats | |||
| Party | % of Voters | Seats | |
| BJD+ | 46.9 | 100 | |
| Congress+ | 35.8 | 39 | |
| Others | 17.3 | 8 | |
| Total | 147 | ||
| Party | Assembly 2000 | Assembly 2004 | Gains(+)/ Losses(-) |
| BJD+ | 106 | 100 | -6 |
| Congress | 26 | 39 | +13 |
| Others | 15 | 8 | -7 |
| Total | 147 | 147 | |
| Swing in votes: Assembly 2000 to 2004 | |||
| Party | Assembly 2000 | Assembly 2004 | Gains (+)/ Losses (-) |
| BJD+ | 47.6 | 46.9 | -0.7 |
| Congress | 33.7 | 35.8 | 2.1 |
| Others | 18.7 | 17.3 | -1.4 |
| Voting Intentions - By Demography | |||
| Region wise | BJD+ | Congress+ | |
| Location: | |||
| Urban | 53 | 36 | |
| Rural | 54 | 36 | |
| Sex: | |||
| Male | 56 | 36 | |
| Female | 48 | 39 | |
| Age: | |||
| 18-24 Years | 57 | 39 | |
| 25-40 Years | 55 | 36 | |
| 41-60 Years | 50 | 38 | |
| 61 & Above | 56 | 32 | |
| Voting Intentions - By Occupation | ||
| Occupation | BJD+ | Congress+ |
| Housewife | 52 | 33 |
| Unemployed | 51 | 37 |
| Student | 53 | 47 |
| Govt. Employee | 64 | 29 |
| Pvt. Employee | 56 | 40 |
| Businessmen | 59 | 32 |
| Farmer < 2 Acres of land | 51 | 38 |
| Farmer 2-5 Acres of land | 41 | 46 |
| Farmer more than 5 Acres of land | 27 | 68 |
| Agri labourer | 48 | 48 |
| Non agri labourer | 53 | 39 |
| Others | 67 | 24 |
| Voting Intentions - By Education | ||
| Education | BJD+ | Congress+ |
| Illiterate | 52 | 38 |
| Attended School | 54 | 36 |
| Graduate | 55 | 35 |
| Post Graduate/ Professional | 60 | 40 |
| Voting Intentions - By Caste/Religion | ||
| Caste/Religion | BJD+ | Congress+ |
| SC | 54 | 36 |
| ST | 48 | 41 |
| Muslims | 42 | 58 |
| Christians | 29 | 43 |
| Khandayats/Kshatriya | 51 | 34 |
| Brahmins | 64 | 27 |
| Karan | 76 | 22 |
| Teli | 47 | 38 |
| Kewata | 53 | 38 |
| Tanti | 62 | 36 |
| Other forward caste | 65 | 35 |
| Incumbency Factor: State Government | ||
| Are you happy with the performance of Naveen Patnaik led BJP Govt. in Orissa? | ||
Yes | ||
No
65
33
Yes
No
63
33
Better
Same
Worse
Better
Same
Worse
72
10
13
| Leadership Issue | ||
| In your opinion between J.B. Patnaik and Naveen Patnaik who will be better candidate for Chief Minister? | ||
| Region wise | Naveen Patnaik | J.B. Patnaik |
| Overall | 62 | 30 |
| Location: | ||
| Urban | 62 | 29 |
| Rural | 62 | 30 |
| Sex: | ||
| Male | 63 | 29 |
| Female | 59 | 30 |
| Age: | ||
| 18-24 Yrs. | 65 | 29 |
| 25-40 Yrs. | 62 | 20 |
| 41-60 Yrs. | 61 | 30 |
| Above 60 Yrs. | 59 | 29 |
| In your opinion who is a better leader to be the next Prime Minister of the country? | ||
| A.B. Vajpayee | Sonia Gandhi | |
| Overall | 73 | 22 |
| Location: | ||
| Urban | 76 | 20 |
| Rural | 73 | 22 |
| Sex: | ||
| Male | 75 | 20 |
| Female | 69 | 27 |
| Age: | ||
| 18-24 yrs. | 76 | 21 |
| 25-40 yrs | 74 | 22 |
| 41-60 yrs | 72 | 21 |
| Above 60 yrs | 71 | 24 |
| Party Perceptions: State Perspective | ||
| BJD+ | INC | |
| Which party’s election campaigns and claims do you trust more? | 51 | 34 |
| Which party’s position has improved more recently in your assembly constituency | 53 | 37 |
| Which party is more active and better organised in your constituency? | 57 | 35 |
| Which political party is likely to win in your assembly constituency if election is held now? | 56 | 35 |
| Party Perceptions: National Perspective | ||
| BJD | INC | |
| Which party/alliance is in a better position to tackle the issues facing the country? | 72 | 23 |
| Which party/alliance in your opinion is likely to form Govt. at Centre after this Lok Sabha election? | 73 | 24 |
| Perceptions | ||
| In your opinion, what are the most important problems bothering you in your assembly constituency? | ||
Water | ||
| What is the most important achievement of Naveen Patnaik led BJD govt. In Orissa? | ||
| Road and communication | 27 | |
| Corruption has reduced | 8 | |
| Indira Awas Yojna | 6 | |
| B.P.L. card issued to poor people | 6 | |
| Drinking water supply | 3 | |
| Overall development | 3 | |
| Improvement in irrigation | 2 | |
| Improvement in electricity supply | 2 | |
| Law and order | 2 | |
| Improvement in education facilities | 2 | |
| What is the most important failure of Naveen Patnaik led BJD govt. in Orissa? | ||
| Unemployment | 14 | |
| Corruption | 4 | |
| Poverty | 4 | |
| Irrigation | 3 | |
| Loan for poor farmers | 3 | |
| Water supply | 3 | |
| Education | 2 | |
| No rural development | 2 | |
| Overall no development | 2 | |
| Road /Transport problem | 2 | |
Sampled Constituencies: 20
RAIRANGPUR (ST), JALESWAR, SIMULIA, BARCHANA, MAHANGA, BANKI, GOBINDPUR, RANPUR. RAIRAKHOL (SC), ATHMALLIK, RAGHUNATHPALI (ST), KEONJHAR (ST), JATNI, SURUDA, GOPALPUR (SC), RAYAGADA (ST), UMARKOTE (ST), KESINGA, PHULBANI (SC), PATNAGARH
BJD+: Biju Janta Dal, Bhartiya Janta Party
Congress+: Congress, Orissa Gana Parishad (OGP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)
Others: Independents, CPI, CPM
All Figures In Percentage
