A recent study conducted by IIT-Kharagpur, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, has projected a potential increase in surface temperatures over India by the year 2100. The study, titled "Enhanced Surface Temperature over India during 1980–2020 and Future Projections: Causal Links of the Drivers and Trends," delves into the long-term trends of surface temperatures in India from 1980 to 2020, The Indian Express reported.
In high emission scenarios, the research suggests that temperatures in the Indian region could rise by as much as 5.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This projection is in line with upper-end estimates for the global average temperature increase due to the impact of high greenhouse gas emissions.
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Notably, historical temperature increases in India have been relatively lower compared to the global average. The study attributes rising surface temperatures to the significant emissions of greenhouse gases, which have contributed to global warming and climate change. These trends are expected to persist into the future.
The research draws on various data sources, including surface, satellite, and reanalysis data, to assess the influence of different geophysical drivers on temperature change. In particular, the study examined temperature trends over the past four decades, revealing that temperature increases have been observed in different parts of the country during various seasons.
Under moderate emission scenarios, the study projects that the average surface temperature over India may rise by about 1.2-2°C by 2100. However, under a high emission scenario, with emissions increasing significantly by 2075, the temperature increase could reach 3.5-5.1°C by the end of the century. It's worth noting that efforts to reduce emissions may mitigate the high emission scenario, but it is crucial to address and reduce emissions to avoid extreme temperature rises.
