Andhra Pradesh

OUTLOOk

Andhra Pradesh

Key Highlights:

TDP prospects have improved in the last one-month due to shift of undecided voters in favour of the party.
The percentage of indecisive voters who are likely to review their voting preference closer to election has declined from 15 percent in end February to 7 percent in end March.
The support for Telangana agitation seems to have saturated. The intensity of the agitation is limited to Warangal, Karimnagar and Medak.
The Congress – TRS alliance does not be seem to be operating smoothly in Telangana. While the TRS voter is voting for the Congress party the traditional Congress voter is exhibiting certain reservations to vote for TRS.
The TDP has opted for more fresh candidates and the party list is far more representative and reflective of the social composition of the State.

Forecast Of Votes And Seats
Party	% of Voters	Seats
TDP+	45.6	163
Congress/Allies	42.7	122
Others	11.7	9
Total		294

Gains/loss of seats: Assembly 1999 to 2004
Party	Assembly 1999	Assembly 2004	Gains(+)/ Losses(-)
TDP+	192	163	-29
Congress/Allies	91	122	+30
Others	11	9	-2

Mood of Andhra Pradesh Voter In Last Six Months

Swing in votes: Assembly 1999 to 2004
Party	Assembly 1999	Assembly 2004	Gains (+)/ Losses (-)
TDP+	47.7	45.6	-2.1
Congress/Allies	40.5	42.7	+2.2
Others	11.8	11.5	-0.1

Voting Intentions: By Region
Region	TDP+	Congress/allies
Coastal	56	41
Rayalseema	57	42
Telangana	38	59

Illiterate4750

Voting Intentions - By Demography
Demographic	TDP+	Congress/ Allies
Location:
Urban	52	45
Rural	49	48
Sex:
Male	48	50
Female	51	47
Age:
18-30 Years	49	48
31-50 Years	50	47
>50 Years	46	51

Voting Intentions - By Occupation
Occupation	TDP+	Congress/ Allies
Housewife	51	46
Unemployed	39	59
Student	49	49
Govt. Employee	54	45
Pvt. Employee	53	43
Businessmen	54	44
Farmers	49	48
Agri labourer	47	50
Non agri labourer	45	51

Voting Intentions: By Education

Education

TDP+

Congress/Allies

Schooling upto 12th

49

48

Graduate & above

55

43

Voting Intentions: By Caste/Community
Caste/Religion	TDP+	Congress/ Allies
SC	41	55
ST	49	43
Muslims	49	46
Christians	48	51
Kammas	56	40
Kakpu	51	47
Madiga	47	51
Mala	57	40
Raju	32	59
Reddy	45	54
Velmas	54	46

Incumbency Factor: State Government
Are you happy with the performance of Chandrababu Naidu led TDP Govt. in Andhra Pradesh?
		Yes	No
		50	48

In your opinion has TDP Govt. fulfilled most of its promises
		Yes	No
		50	49

How would you rate the performance of Chandrababu Naidu led TDP Government in the State in comparison to previous Congress Government?
	Better	Same	Worse
	49	4	47

Incumbency Factor: Centre
Are you happy with performance of Vajpayee led NDA Govt. at Centre?
	Yes	No
	52	46

Leadership Issue
Between Chandrababu Naidu, Raja Shekhar Reddy and T. Chandra Sekhar Rao whom do you trust more?
Region wise	Chandrababu Naidu	Raja Shekhar Reddy	Chandra Sekhar Rao
OVERALL	49	38	10
Coastal	57	39	-
Rayalseema	56	42	-
Telangana	37	35	27


In your opinion between Chandrababu Naidu and Raja Shekhar Reddy who will be better candidate for chief minister?

Region

Chandrababu Naidu

Raja Shekhar Reddy

OVERALL

50

47

Coastal

55

40

Rayalseema

57

42

Telangana

38

61

In your opinion who is a better leader to be the next prime minister of the country?

Region wise	Atal Behari Vajpayee	Sonia Gandhi
Coastal	54	43
Rayalseema	57	43
Telengana	40	58

Party Perceptions: State Perspective

Region wise	TDP+	INC+
In your opinion which party protects The Interest Of Farmers better in Andhra Pradesh?
Coastal	56	40
Rayalseema	57	43
Telangana	39	54

Which party's election campaign and claims do you trust more?
Coastal	55	37
Rayalseema	57	43
Telangana	39	61

Between Congress and TDP who is more Active and Better Organised locally in your constituency?
Coastal	47	37
Rayalseema	56	43
Telangana	38	60

In your opinion, which party is likely to form the next government in AP?
Coastal	56	40
Rayalseema	58	42
Telangana	38	62

Telangana Issue:

Do you support the idea of divided the state by forming out a seperate Telangana state?

Region Wise

Support

Don't support

DK/CS

Coastal

10

82

8

Rayalseema

3

95

2

Telangana

53

44

3

Do you think polling will be peaceful in your area or you anticipate any violence?

Region wise	Peaceful	Anticipate Violence	DK/CS
Coastal	84	5	11
Rayalseema	82	17	1
Telengana	90	4	6

Perceptions

In your opinion, what are the most important problems bothering you in your assembly constituency?

Water Problem	20
Electricity	17
Roads	8
Agriculture	8
Prise Rise	6
Medical Facility	5
Transport/ Communication	5
Ration Cards	5
Education Facility	4
Drainage	4
Unemployment	3
Corruption	3

What is the most important achievement of Chandrababu naidu led TDP govt. in Andhra Pradesh?

Road upgradation	19
Water	3
DWCRA	15
C.M.E.Y. School	13
Old Age Pension	5
Deepam Scheme	9
House schemes	3
Women's Development	6
Kishan Mitra Scheme	5
Loan for poor people	5
Overall Development	3
Midday Meal	2

What is the most important failure of Chandrababu naidu led TDP govt. in Andhra Pradesh?

Electricity	16
Neglect of Agriculture	10
Drinking Water	10
Price Rice	9
Ration card	7
Roads	6
Unemployment	5
Overall no Development	4
Transport/Communication	3
Medical Problem/ No Hospital	3
Corruption	3
Education	3

List of sampled assembly constituenc ies: 36

TEKKALI, CHEEPURUPALLI, ELAMANCHILI, JAGGAMPETA, MUMMIDIVARAM (SC), UNGUTUR, PALACOLE, MYLAVARAM, MALLESWARAM, DUGGIRALA, GUNTUR II, PARCHUR, KANIGIRI, RAPUR, PUTTUR, CHANDRAGIRI, RAJAMPET, NALLAMADA, RAYADRUG, ALUR (SC), NANDIKOTKUR, MYDUKUR, WANAPARTHY, ACHAMPET (SC), KHAIRATABAD, GAJWEL (SC), ZAHIRABAD, RAMAYAMPET, MUDHOLE, HUZURABAD, CHOPPADANDI, CHENNUR, SHYAMPET, SHUJATNAGAR, TUNGATURTHI, MUNGODE,

TDP+ : Telugu Desam Party, Bhartiya Janta Party
Congress/Allies: Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, CPI, CPM
Others: Independents, All India Majlis-e-Itiehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)

All Figures In Percentage