The 61-Seat Problem: Why Beating Netanyahu May Not Be Enough

Israelis are voting on October 27 in a general election that will determine the country’s next prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu faces a crucial test of his political future as voters assess his government’s handling of the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks, the wars in Gaza and Iran, and Israel’s growing international isolation.

Netanyahu could lose seats in Israel’s election without losing power. Even if his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, leads the opposition to victory, the result may not be enough to form a government.

The reason lies in Israel’s parliamentary system. A party does not become the government simply by winning the most seats. It must gather enough support from other parties to command a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

Why Is 61 The Magic Number In Israel’s Election?

Israel’s electoral system makes coalitions necessary to form a government. The 120-seat Knesset requires a minimum of 61 seats for a parliamentary majority. Under proportional representation, parties receive seats based on their share of the national vote, provided they cross the 3.25% electoral threshold.

This system has meant that Israeli governments have always relied on alliances between multiple parties. Once the final results are announced, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders about their preferred candidate for prime minister.

Israel’s president assigns the task to the lawmaker considered most likely to secure enough support to build a governing coalition. No single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s parliamentary elections. Parties negotiate with one another and agree to work together, often making compromises on policies and appointments.

The Numbers Behind The Netanyahu-Eisenkot Contest

Netanyahu’s Likud party is competing against a range of opposition parties, including Eisenkot’s Yashar. The contest is not simply about which leader’s party wins the most seats. It is about which side can assemble a working majority.

Opinion polls indicate a tight contest between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led right-wing bloc and an opposing camp led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who has support among both right-wing and centrist voters.

A poll conducted by public broadcaster KAN forecast 52 seats for the opposition alliance in the 120-member Knesset, against 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The remaining seats are expected to go to other parties, including Israel’s two main Arab-led political lists: Ra’am, also known as the United Arab List, and the Joint List, comprising Hadash, Balad and Ta’al.

The Opposition’s Arithmetic: Where Can The Missing Seats Come From?

If the opposition wins around 54 seats, it would need seven more to reach the majority mark. Those seats could come from Arab parties, smaller political groups or parties that have not committed themselves to either camp.

However, adding seats on paper does not automatically create a viable coalition. Parties must agree on policies and be willing to support the same government.

Differences over security, religion, military service, and relations with Palestinian political groups could complicate negotiations. Some parties may agree to support a government from outside the coalition without taking ministerial positions. Others may refuse to cooperate with particular partners.

The challenge for Eisenkot would therefore be to turn a possible numerical advantage into an agreement that can survive parliamentary votes.

Arab Parties: The Seats That Could Decide The Outcome

Arab political parties could play a crucial role in determining which side can form a government. The main groups include Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List, an alliance involving Hadash, Balad and Ta’al.

Together, the Arab parties were projected to win around 14 to 16 seats in some final polls according to Al Jazeera. Both major political blocs have so far ruled out joining a coalition with them. However, without their support, neither side may be able to secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Netanyahu’s Dependence On The Right

In the November 2022 election, Netanyahu’s Likud won 32 seats, while his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies secured another 32, giving his bloc a 64-seat majority. His government depended on parties including Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism, whose support came with demands on religious policy, military exemptions and settlements

Netanyahu may once again need the support of far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to secure a governing majority. Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries over allegations of inciting violence against Palestinians. Meanwhile, opinion polls indicate growing support for Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party.

Three Possible Outcomes: Coalition, Minority Government Or Another Election

Three broad outcomes are possible in the Israel 2026 election.

First, a majority coalition: One side could secure enough support from smaller parties and form a government with at least 61 seats. This would give it a parliamentary majority, although coalition partners could still disagree over policy.

Second, a minority government: A candidate could form a government without 61 coalition members if enough lawmakers outside the coalition agree to support it or allow it to remain in office. Israel has previously had minority governments that relied on outside parliamentary support.

Third, another election: If no candidate can assemble a workable government after negotiations, the country could face another election. Until a new government is formed, a caretaker administration would remain in place.

Ultimately, the election is not just a contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. It is a test of whether either leader can build a parliamentary alliance that can govern. Winning the most seats may provide an advantage, but in Israel, the real test is reaching 61.