Iran is warning countries against joining Washington's economic campaign as US pressure on Tehran intensifies.
Falling oil shipments to China and disruption to regional trade are putting further pressure on Iran's economy.
Tehran is using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage while uncertainty remains over the state of its nuclear programme.
Iran is threatening to retaliate against countries that join the United States in its intensified economic campaign, with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei warning that Tehran could target their interests and halt oil exports from the Gulf, including through routes that bypass Hormuz. At the same time, Iran is trying to preserve trade with its remaining partners and is using the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining point as Washington seeks to restrict its access to foreign trade and revenue.
The US is intensifying its sanctions campaign against Iran, targeting its sources of revenue and warning countries and companies that continue doing business with Tehran. The latest measures target five of Iran's key economic lifelines — digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping — while Washington is also seeking to restrict Iran's oil revenues, according to Al Jazeera. Tehran has responded by threatening countries that cooperate with Washington, using Hormuz as leverage and seeking alternative ways to keep trade moving.
The nuclear programme remains another central dispute, but there is no confirmed evidence that Tehran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. The question is whether sustained military and economic pressure could change Iran's calculations about its nuclear programme, one of the central issues in its confrontation with Washington.
Iran threatens countries joining US sanctions
Tehran's warnings have extended beyond Washington.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said countries joining the US economic campaign would be treated as enemies. He said Tehran would first negotiate with such countries and ask them to distance themselves from Washington, but warned that Iran could then target their interests. Rezaei also said that if neighbouring countries participated in the US economic campaign, “not even a drop of oil” would leave the Gulf, including through routes that bypass Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported his remarks on August 22.
The threat came as Washington stepped up pressure on Iran. The US administration has warned countries that continuing to provide Iran with economic lifelines could expose them to sanctions. China is particularly important to the campaign because it buys more than 80 per cent of Iran's shipped oil, according to Reuters.
China's continued purchases will therefore be important to the effectiveness of Washington's economic pressure on Tehran. Beijing has rejected unilateral US sanctions, while Washington has so far been cautious about imposing the most damaging measures against major Chinese entities. Reuters reported that the administration was seeking to increase pressure on Iran without triggering a wider confrontation with China.
Iran's oil trade is under pressure
Oil is central to Iran's finances, but its ability to export crude has already been badly affected.
Reuters reported on August 21 that Iranian oil shipments to China had fallen sharply as the US blockade restricted exports. Iranian exports to China averaged about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 but had fallen to about 534,000 barrels per day in August, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
China remains Iran's biggest oil customer, but Iran's regional trade network has also suffered a major setback. The United Arab Emirates suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran on August 19 after saying it had come under renewed missile fire, AP reported. Before the war, the UAE had been a crucial re-export hub through which Iran obtained foreign goods despite sanctions.
AP reported on August 27 that Iran is now trying to sustain trade as Washington pressures other countries to sever financial and commercial ties with Tehran. Alternative routes through Pakistan and the Caspian Sea offer some relief, but logistical and political obstacles mean they cannot quickly replace the trade that previously moved through the UAE.
Hormuz is Iran's main bargaining point
The waterway normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil, according to Reuters. Traffic has since fallen sharply, with shipping volumes running at only 5 to 15 per cent of normal levels. Seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on Thursday, compared with a 10-day average of 15.
Iran is preparing conditions for restoring normal maritime traffic, although Tehran says the strait remains closed to general shipping and has allowed limited vessels to pass. Reuters reported that diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait had intensified, with Qatar pushing for progress and Iran discussing a possible shipping corridor with Oman. Previous Iranian demands have included an end to the US blockade and the lifting of sanctions.
Those demands are connected to the June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. The June 17 agreement provided for the reopening of Hormuz, an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and waivers for Iranian oil exports. Iran agreed to make its best efforts to facilitate the safe passage of commercial vessels for 60 days, while demining operations were to be completed within 30 days. Under the MoU, Iran reaffirmed that it would not seek nuclear weapons. The MoU expired on August 17 after the two sides failed to resolve their differences over its implementation.
Could pressure change Iran's nuclear calculation?
The nuclear question is more difficult to assess.
Reuters reported that the strikes may have delayed Iran's nuclear programme, although its current condition remains unclear because UN inspectors have not returned to the country's nuclear sites.
That does not establish that Iran has decided to build a bomb.
Tehran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons. Under the June MoU, Iran also reaffirmed that it would not seek them.
For now, the evidence points to an unresolved nuclear programme whose current condition remains uncertain.
Iran's options are narrowing
Reuters reported that food inflation in Iran reached 128 per cent year-on-year in July, underscoring the economic pressure facing households as the war disrupts infrastructure and trade.
Tehran can still use access to Hormuz as a bargaining point, while China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil. But the fall in oil shipments and the loss of the UAE as a major trade channel have reduced Iran's room for manoeuvre. For now, there is no confirmed Iranian decision to build a nuclear weapon. The clearest response so far has been economic: keeping oil revenue flowing where possible, finding alternative trade routes and using Hormuz to push for sanctions relief and an end to the blockade.
