Test For Thalaivar Magick

Thalaivaaa... ” that full-throated, exultant cry of fans was synonymous with Rajinikanth’s first appearance in a particular film. Finally, that welcome for the ‘leader’ can now be extended to the political platform. For his numerous fans and Tamil Nadu’s voters, Rajinikanth has raised expectations with the promise of a political plunge for long. Now, his promised arrival on January 1 has introduced a third dimension into the state’s bipolar politics.

Both the ruling AIADMK, in power for a decade, and a DMK desperate to win, were gunning for a direct fight in the April 2021 elections. Rajini’s arrival has suddenly introduced an unknown factor. The pandemic had given second thoughts to Rajinikanth, a kidney transplant patient, comforting the two Dravidian majors. Till Rajini decided to risk it all—fame, political capital and his own health.

“Neither Palaniswami nor Stalin would be able to match Rajinikanth’s charisma and the heat he is bound to generate. The electoral calculations these two parties are so adept at could get neutralised by the unique chemistry that Rajini can establish with voters, especially youth and women. He would be the X factor which could even compel Kamal Haasan to join with him though the latter has had a political headstart,” observes political commentator Maalan.

The DMK is worried that Dalits, who it had wooed by keeping the Dalit party VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) by its side, could fall for Rajini, just as they did when actor Vijayakanth had launched his party in 2005. The likelihood of Stalin’s estranged elder brother M.K. Alagiri floating his own party and joining hands with Rajini is a potential headache too. If the battle turns one between Stalin and Rajini the DMK would need more than the strategic inputs of Prashant Kishor. “His presence is a definite imponderable,” admits a DMK MLA.

The AIADMK is apprehensive that Rajini’s brand of spiritual politics would dent its vote base of the temple-going faithful, especially women. And his promise of a transparent government hits at the weakest point of DMK and AIADMK—their tainted record while in power. CM Palaniswami, who has won the internal battle with O. Panneerselvam, now has to rejig his approach. “We could attack Stalin on dynastic politics and his party’s failures while in power but we have nothing against Rajinikanth, barring his inexperience,” rues an AIADMK minister.

However, only charisma might not be enough for the superstar. He needs a decent alliance too. Kamal’s MNM tops the list, while smaller caste parties would also line up. He also needs to woo important untainted leaders from both the DMKs to project a winning appearance. The physical challenge would be tough for the 70-year-old. As he admitted recently, a health setback could derail the campaign.

But Rajini, say sources, made up his mind, as retreating before one more election would be equated with cowardice. In early March he had flirted with the idea of leading the party and nominating someone else as the CM candidate. It had disheartened his supporters. “People would vote for Rajinikanth only if he is projected as the CM candidate. That would be seen as shying away from the fight,” observes S. Ramesh of Thuglak magazine and a confidant of the actor.

“If the objective is to defeat the DMK there should be no split in the anti-DMK votes which can happen only if the AIADMK and Rajinikanth can come together,” suggests former Chennai Mayor Saidai S. Duraiswamy. But past examples show that whenever smaller parties allied with a Dravidian major, they got reduced to nonentities. Rajini would be averse to that. Similarly, he would stay away from the BJP, knowing that its Hindu votes would anyway migrate towards him.

The BJP may also not push for an alliance. The party knows that Rajini is only a one-election phenomenon. So, the votes he polls now could be inherited by the BJP once he leaves the field. Now, Amit Shah’s plan for 2026 makes more sense.

By G.C. Shekhar in Chennai