With the heat and dust of the bitterly fought assembly elections in Bihar settling down, the focus now is on the neighbouring state of UP, which is slated for assembly elections in 2017. Will the MGBN formula of Bihar repeat itself in UP? Will UP see Mayavati and Mulayam coming together?
Inter-caste relationships in India vary from state to state. For example, Punjab, the birthplace of Babu Kanshi Ram, the founder of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may have substantial Scheduled Caste populations, about 30 percent, the highest among the Indian states, yet there is hardly any presence of BSP or Dalit politics in the state. Dalits in Punjab have been conveniently co-opted by either the Akalis or the Congress, the two main political parties of Punjab. Internally divided between Ravidassia, Valmiki and multitude of other smaller groups, Dalits of Punjab keep playing second fiddle to the mainstream political outfits.
UP is not Bihar. In Bihar Dalit politics has never had any significant presence. In contrast, UP saw decades of political mobilisation around the Dalit identity, led by leaders of the stature of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati. Mayawati may have experimented with her Bahujan nomenclature (by trying to invoke sarvjan etc) in the last two elections and perhaps paid the price, but she never compromised with her core constituency, which is about keeping the Dalit flag flying high. UP therefore has progressively emerged as a battle ground for the two political heavy weights, Dalits and the OBCs, represented respectively by Mayavati and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Upper castes in UP have virtually become a residual category. In contrast to Bihar, the possibility of forming a MGBN, with the BSP and the SP joining hands looks almost impossible. Unlike in Bihar, where both Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar were staring at forced political vanprastha, in UP neither Mulayam nor Mayavati see themselves getting so hopelessly cornered as yet by the BJP and its allies in UP.
The recent success of BSP in the local bodies in UP has raised hopes for Mayawati. Akhilesh Yadav's regime has seen the dominance of Yadavas grow many fold in the state machinery, whether in administration, police or lower subordinate services. It is not without reason that the Dalits of UP see the OBC groups, mainly dominant caste Yadavas, as their main rivals and bête noire. Disillusioned and disgruntled (with Behenji's undue emphasis on Sarvjan) segment of the Dalits, who had drifted towards either SP or BJP in the last elections, have shown signs of return.
Some of the steps of Akhilesh Yadav led government, such as tampering with the Uttar Pradesh Zamindari Abolition and Land reforms Act 1950 which makes Dalits vulnerable to land mafia, have further pushed Dalits back to Mayawati.
The image of the BJP as a party of businessmen and rich people, notwithstanding PM Modi's own humble caste background, has remained indelible. Mohan Bhagwat's rather stray observation on review of caste based reservation has only added to the pro-upper strata image of the BJP.
The elections in India are increasingly going to be about alliances and political rearrangements. Hence there will possibly be a Gathbandhan before the UP elections too, but not of the kind that we saw in Bihar. The possibility of any alliance between Mulayam and Mayawati seems out of sync with the ground realities and the recent history of caste relations in UP.
If Bihar election was about agdaa and pichhda (forward and backward), to borrow from Lalu Prasad Yadav's formulation, the UP election is going to be between the Pichhda and the ati- pichhda, that is, between the dominant backward castes (SP) and the Dalits (BSP). The refusal of Mulayam to, first be part of the MGBN in Bihar and then complete disappearance from the oath taking ceremony of Nitish government are pointers to that direction. Instead he preferred celebrating his 76th birthday in Saifai, in the company of his old friend Amar Singh, listening to melodious A.R. Rehman.
Seasoned Mulayam Singh Yadav knows that political and caste equations in UP are different from Bihar and hence his lack of enthusiasm to the idea of a Bihar like alliance in UP. The return of Amar Singh and the attendance of the Prime Minister at his grandson's marriage to Lalu's daughter are also significant indications. What is certain is that the UP election will see an entirely new set of caste rearrangement, with SP and BSP emerging as the two main centres of axis, around which new equations will be forged.
Chances of Mayavati and Mulayam joining hands will be akin to mutual erasure of each other's history and hard earned lifelong legacy, which neither of them will ever entertain even in their thoughts, let alone working for it on the ground. Mulayam Singh Yadav's latest overture towards various other backward castes such as Rajbhar, Nishad, Mallah, Kahar, Kewat, Manjhi etc., some 17 of them, traditionally considered to be close to Mayawati, to grant them the Scheduled Castes status by recommending their demands to the Centre, can be seen as part of SP's larger strategy to poach on the territory of BSP.
On the other hand Mayawati has been trying to woo the middle class, by promising recently in public that she would not splurge public money on building monuments, parks etc., like the way she did during her last tenure. Some of these steps of Mayawati had became controversial, making her unpopular, not just among the ordinary urban citizens but also among a very tiny but very influential segment of the educated, upwardly mobile, mostly young Dalit voters as well who, it is believed, then did cosy up to the BJP in the previous elections. Indications of parallel strategies, rather than any dialogue, could be clearly observed here, eliminating any possibility of MGBN.
Last but not the least, the fragile nature of religion and the politics around it makes the state an entirely different proposition. In UP politics, religious mobilisation is almost always alive and simmering. Unlike in Bihar where the Muslim community never needed a community supremacist like Azam Khan and others, since the political leadership in Bihar, whether of Lalu or Nitish, showed uncompromising commitment to uphold the values of secularism and communal harmony, UP's politics doesn't have the same level of built-in trust. This then leaves every political player in UP with "hope", to garner some share of the cake by pandering to religious chauvinism. Simply put, while caste will rule the roost in UP, the religious card too will play its role. Given the state's vulnerability to communal flare ups and polarisation in the past, the situation looks ominous.
Advertisement
Santosh Kr. Singh is a Sociologist with Ambedkar University Delhi
