The Northeast

There has been a marginal improvement in the levels ofmilitancy in the Northeast. While 715 people died in 2005, 627 people werekilled in militancy-related violence during 2006.

Nevertheless, certain states of the region have shownremarkable signs of recovery in recent years. Tripura, once considered to be oneof the most violent states of the country, recorded 59 insurgency-relatedfatalities in 2006, down from 75 in 2005, and from a peak of 514 in 2000.Tripura is "carving out a success story in the troubled setting ofIndia’s Northeast, as its Police force reorganizes radically to evolve acounter-insurgency strategy that has left entrenched militant groups indisarray." Building on a "model of a police-led response to terrorism,which saw the country’s most dramatic victory over this modern scourge inPunjab in the early 1990s, Tripura’s Police, under the leadership of itsChief, G.M. Srivastava, has reversed the trajectory of insurgent violence and,crucially, mobilisation… despite continued and vigorous support provided tothe insurgent groups by Bangladesh, and the safe haven each of these outfits hasbeen provided in that country."

The gains in Tripura are more than offset by the losses inManipur, which, at 280 fatalities, now accounts for nearly 45 per cent of thefatalities in the Northeast – with just 5.6 per cent of the region’spopulation. Manipur thus remains the most violent state in the region, althoughthere is a relative decline in violence, with total fatalities registering adecline from 331 in 2005. While a number of other states in the Northeast haveor are being reclaimed from protracted insurgencies, Manipur continues to remainvolatile. Large-scale extortion and its impact on ordinary lives, as well as onthe lives of people at the helm of affairs in the state, are symptomatic of thevirtual collapse of governance in the state.

Assam too remains a disturbed state with 174 deaths in 2006compared to 242 fatalities in 2005.

Assam, which attracts far greater national attention andaccounts for 69 per cent of the population of the Northeast, saw 174 fatalitiesin 2006, as against 242 in 2005. The militancy in Assam persists despitecontinuous and successful operations by the Security Forces, with the principalterrorist groups – particularly the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) – finding permanent safe haven and significantstate support across the border in Bangladesh.

Nagaland, where a ‘peace process’ has been in place since1997, saw the third largest number of fatalities in the region in 2006, with 90dead, overwhelmingly in the fratricidal turf-war between the rival Isak-Muivahand Khaplang factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland. Both themilitant outfits (NSCN-IM and NSCN-K) are in cease-fire agreements with the governmentin Nagaland, but the government continues been held hostage to the diktats of the insurgent groups. The processof negotiations has been complicated by insurgent groups that have appropriatedthe attributes of criminal and extortionist gangs, and successfully circumventthe due process of law by their engagement in the negotiation process with the government.

The fight against insurgency in Meghalaya, Mizoram andArunachal Pradesh remains largely successful.

In spite of the government’s efforts in bringing allmilitant outfits to the negotiating table, the region continues to remaindisturbed. Indeed, ‘peace processes’ that have consistently failed to get tothe bottom of the core issues of the conflict, are themselves fraught withproblems, producing a rush to enter into unprincipled agreements withparticular, with little concern regarding the broader outcome on other groups,and on the region at large. The prevailing orientation to ‘peace processes’and negotiations with terrorist groups have often "paralyzed the state andhave even occasionally undermined the will of elements within the SecurityForces to act with determination against terrorism. They have certainlyundermined the capacity of the political and administrative leadership to definecoherent policies against terrorism, and to implement these consistently.

The militant groups operating in various states of theNortheast have usually found refuge in neighbouring countries like Bangladeshand Myanmar. Fencing along the 4,096.7 kilometre-long border with Bangladesh,suggested as a remedy to the problem of militancy, has not been completed,leaving ample scope for easy entry and exit by the militants. Similarly, anumber of militant groups operating in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur have takenshelter in Myanmar.