Handle With Care

While Musharraf as President faced threat of impeachment this scribeconjectured that he could bless an adventure in Kashmir to regain politicalrelevance. On August 7th this scribe wrote: "Is there a design behind these(ceasefire) violations... To isolate the US in Pakistan and consolidate supportfrom Beijing nothing could be more effective than even a small adventure againstIndia… Musharraf’s previous record… reveals a gambler capable of takingany risk to preserve his power and position."

With Musharraf’s exit it seemed that the threat was over. Appearances weredeceptive. Cross-border firing by the Pakistan army increased. The crisis inJammu and Kashmir escalated. The shortsighted stupidity of politicians in Jammuand in the valley apart, there is little doubt that the death of a seniorHurriyat leader in police firing became a critical event to inflame publicopinion in the valley. It transpires that he was not shot by a police or armybullet. Would it be too far fetched to speculate that the ISI had a hand in hisdeath?

Meanwhile bomb blasts inside Pakistan increased in intensity and frequency. Andthe ruling coalition instead of a united and focused fight against terror fellapart. One day after Nawaz Sharif walked out of the ruling coalition, Pakistaniinfiltrators attacked Jammu. But this time there was a significant difference.They crossed not the Line of Control but international border. The army battledthe terrorists in Jammu. Was the international border violation a carefullycalibrated move by the forces scuttling Pakistan’s democracy to provoke across border response by the Indian army? It might be recalled that in 1965 whenPresident Ayub Khan crossed the international border to cut off Akhnoor, PrimeMinister Shastri launched an attack against Lahore.

This time around an even mild response by the Indian army could serve thepurpose of Pakistani forces out to destroy the country’s democracy. The armywould regain full power with or without Musharraf. The Indian government needsto be doubly cautious.

The Pakistan government has failed to address the genuine demands for autonomyin NWFP and Baluchistan with a worthwhile peace package. It has failed toneutralize mounting terrorism. It has failed to separate the local Taliban fromforeign Al Qaeda mercenaries. And it has failed to provide a united cohesivecivilian government. Pakistan is in a mess.

If India responds angrily to calculated provocations by certain dark Pakistanielements, it will help strengthen them. If India watches, waits and keeps itspowder dry, it might well see Pakistan fall apart under the weight of its owncontradictions. That would be a tragic, complicating event. But with the failureof Pakistan’s politicians to rise to the occasion, this dire prospect ispossible.