Real Reason Behind Modi's Visit To UAE

The much-awaited visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) next week is aimed at achieving several objectives. But a key element of the visit is to clear the decks for a future trip of his to Israel.

This is, however, not to suggest that his UAE visit is not important without its linkage to Israel. Modi's trip to Dubai and Abu Dhabi would bring an end to speculation on his reluctance to engage with the Arab world—a region whose importance to India cannot be over-stated.

?It is ?not only ?the main source for India's energy—oil and gas included, but is also home to over eight million Indians who send over ?$?20 billion home as remittance every year. In addition, it is a favoured destination for large number of Indian Muslims and not just for those who go there for Haj.

The UAE visit could also pave the way for other future visits by the Indian Prime Minister to more countries in the Arab/Muslim world. However, Modi's calculation to engage with this part of the world cannot be
?seen in the absence of his desire to embark on a future landmark visit to Israel.

Since becoming India's new Prime Minister in May 2014, Modi had laid special emphasis on foreign policy. As part of it he had engaged with a number of big powers and traveled to various parts of the world. But in his first year in office he had also avoided any serious engagement with the Arab/Muslim world. This had sparked of criticism in various quarters—not to talk about the disappointment among envoys of the Arab world in Delhi—that as the leader of the Hindu-right in India, Modi was deliberately avoiding to engage with them.

This feeling of neglect got even deeper when foreign minister Sushma Swaraj acknowledged in Delhi that Modi will be the first Indian Prime Minister to travel to Israel. Her public pronouncement had caught even senior South Block officials by surprise since the only visit from India to Israel that was on the cards was that of President Pranab Mukherjee.

MEA sources later clarified that though PM Modi will travel to Israel in future, it was highly unlikely for him to pay a visit to the country this year.

?This makes sense since the Indian President is travelling to Israel in October this year—a first-ever visit of the Indian head of State to the country, a follow-up visit by the Prime Minister in a short span of time would give very little diplomatic and political advantage to Modi. On the contrary such a move could unnecessarily ruffle a lot of feathers both within and outside India.

The Prime Minister's visit to UAE, however, comes at an appropriate time. Facing allegations and criticism from different quarters in India on a series of alleged corrupt deals, the Modi government is literally on the back foot. Moreover, his failure to make any visible progress on the second round of economic reforms has also started disappointing the corporate and many of his backers who had high hopes that his victory would bring fundamental changes in the Indian economy.

A visit to UAE at this juncture would provide him with the much-needed 'moral booster' when he engages with a cross section of Indians. Given his penchant for photo-opps and selfies, the Indian diaspora in UAE, said to be over 2 million —with a proper mix of the blue collared workers and the well heeled Indian business leaders and corporate executives—would allow him the ideal opportunity to project himself as a popular leader among large sections of Indians. Additionally, his engagement with the UAE leadership and captains of the Emirati business and industry can pave the way for greater cooperation on the economic and political field between the two sides.

Moreover, possible cooperation on global terrorism and security-related issues could draw the two sides even closer to each other and strengthen the existing structures for better cooperation.

But what's all this got to do with Israel?

Well, by already engaging with UAE and perhaps a few more countries in the Gulf and West Asia in the coming days, Modi can blunt any possible criticism when he travels to Israel—perhaps sometime early next year—about moving closer to the “Zionists” at the cost of nations where India has a much higher stake. His prior visits and engagement with the Arab world would create the required space for him to meaningfully deepen and strengthen Indo-Israeli ties. And all this he can do while also earning the distinction of being the first Indian Prime Minister to have the courage to travel to Israel.