Old Regime, Old Woes

The symbolism is unmistakable. On February 25, 2007, just two days before election results-- that brought Okrom Ibobi Singh back to power as thestate's 25th Chief Minister-- were announced in Manipur, 16 Security Force (SF) personnel were killed by insurgents of the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) in an ambush, while they were returning from election duties.

With Ibobi Singh's swearing-in on March 3, 2007, the curtains have fallen on the tumultuous process to elect the 9th Legislative Assembly in this northeasternstate. If Ibobi Singh's last tenure (between March 2002 and February 2007) is any index, this could be another period marred by turbulence, corruption and a widespread breakdown of governance. With most of the issues of his last regime unresolved, extraordinary attention and efforts will be needed if thestate is to be dragged out of the morass it finds itself in today.

Singh's earlier regime was the first in Manipur's history of electoral politics to complete a full term of five years.Notwithstanding his political acumen, Singh also presided over the fate of the country's third most violent theatre of conflict, behind Jammu & Kashmir and Chhattisgarh. 285 militancy-related deaths in 2006 and 1,250 fatalities between March 2002 and February 2007, are symptomatic of the unending militant violence that has affected every one of Manipur's ninedistricts, severely impacting on the state's capacity to govern, administer justice, and provide minimal security to its citizens. The diktat of nearly 15 active militant groups ran in much of Manipur, while the authority of thegovernment remained limited to the confines of the capital, Imphal, and districtheadquarters.

Indicative of the state's fragile security situation was the decision of the Election Commission (EC) of India to hold the elections in three phases in one of India's smalleststates (ranked 23rd in term of its geographical area), with a spread of just 22,327 square kilometres. While polling was held in 19 constituencies of threedistricts (Ukhrul, Thoubal and Senapati) on February 8, the second phase witnessed polling in 29 constituencies in another threedistricts (Imphal East, Imphal West and Bishnupur). The final phase of polling on February 23 was for 12 constituencies in the three remainingdistricts (Tamenglong, Chandel and Churachandpur) and the Jiribam sub-division of Imphal Eastdistrict. The EC's decision was, however, justified given the fact that 22 percent of the total 2,177 polling stations were declared as'highly sensitive' and 62 percent were 'sensitive' -- the categories indicating the level of threat to the polling process from potentially disruptive elements, including the militants. In addition, there were extraneous factors such as hostile geography-- nearly 100 polling stations where voting was held on February 23, for example, were not connected by any road network and could be reached only after treks of up to 30kilometres.

Militant violence took a leap forward during the polling process. While the UNLF carried out several attacks in the four Valleydistricts, the Naga outfit, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), was involved in a number of incidents aimed at ensuring the victory of select candidates in the five Hilldistricts. The prominent incidents during this phase included:

February 25: 16 SF personnel were killed by UNLF militants in an ambush at Khoirok Lamkai under Sadar Hills. The SF personnel were coming back from Khoupum, a tribal village, after performing election duty on February 23.

February 22: Unidentified militants attacked troopers of the Assam Rifles near Gomni village in Chandeldistrict killing a soldier and injuring another.

February 20: Two candidates belonging to the Communist Party of India (CPI) contesting from the Chandel and Tengnoupal assembly constituencies, were forced to retire from the electioneering process under threats from unidentified militants.

February 17: Militants belonging to the NSCN-IM abducted Khangthonang Panmei, an independent candidate from the Tamenglong Assembly constituency in the Tamenglongdistrict after overpowering his security personnel. The candidate was subsequently released on the outskirts of Tamei sub-division.

February 16: Unidentified militants abducted, Ngamkholun Haokip, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for Saikot Assembly constituency from his residence in the Churachandpurdistrict.

February 11: An unidentified militant reportedly fired some rounds at the polling office of K. Ratan, candidate of the Congress party at Mayang Imphal in the Imphal Westdistrict.

February 9: Five persons including three Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed and several others injured when their convoy was attacked by UNLF militants near the hill village of Chassad in the Ukhruldistrict bordering Myanmar. The Policemen were escorting polling officials carrying ballot boxes after the first phase of elections.

February 5: Unidentified militants exploded a hand grenade at the residence of Dr. M. Nara Singh, CPI candidate in the Wangjing Tentha Assembly Constituency in the Thoubaldistrict. No casualty was reported in the incident.

Manipur has traditionally witnessed heavy polling, and this time around over 80 per cent of thestate's 1.7 million voters cast their votes. The Congress Party won 30 seats of the total of 60 Assembly seats, and also secured the support of the CPI, which was a junior partner in the earlier Secular Progressive Front (SPF) ministry, and won four seats in the present elections; as well as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which won three seats.

Significantly, the election results are seen to have reinforced the divide between the Valley and the Hills-- the core issue in the state's unending strife. The United Naga Council (UNC), which made its maiden entry into electoral politics and fielded eleven candidates as'consensus' representatives of the 'Naga people', with the avowed objective of working towards integration of the Naga inhabited areas of Manipur in the proposed'Nagalim' (greater Nagaland) managed to win six seats. Five of its candidates, including Samuel Jendai, who was tipped to win the Tamenglong seat after the NSCN-IM abducted independent candidate Khanthuanang Panmei to pressure him to'retire' from the elections, lost to other Naga candidates. Khanthuanang Panmei won by a margin of 1,301 votes. Panmei's abduction had led to the banning of the poll process in the Temenglongdistrict by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K). The constituencies from where UNC contested successfully include Phungyar, Chingai and Ukhrul (all in Ukhruldistrict), Tadubi (Senapati district), Tengnoupal (Chandel district) and Tamei (Tamenglongdistrict). The UNC subsequently managed to augment its strength to eight by enlisting the support of Khanthuanang Panmei who won from Tamenglong and M. Thohrii who won from Mao constituency. Nine of the Congress Party's sitting Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) lost in the Hilldistricts, largely inhabited by the Nagas.

The UNC's 'Declaration Paper', dated January 16, 2007, and signed by all the Naga candidates in the elections, is indicative of the party's future course of action. The declaration read:

I will fully support the on-going Indo-Naga peace process for a negotiated and honourable solution,

On being elected, I will steadfastly defend the interest and aspiration of the Naga people for integration/unification of Naga areas,

I shall resign from the Manipur Assembly if called upon to do so by the Naga people represented by the UNC,

I shall not defect/split/ merge to any other political parties or government without the consent and approval of the Naga people represented by the UNC,

I shall strengthen society and provide leadership in nation building,

I shall work cohesively with leaders of other ethnic communities to provide social tranquillity of the region and work for the common interest of all ethnic communities without undermining the aspiration of the Nagas,

Failing to fulfill the above commitment and declarations, I and my witness shall be liable to any measures adopted by the Naga people.

Although numerically insignificant, the UNC candidates are expected to keep the fire of Naga sub-nationalism burning during their tenure in the Assembly.

While the UNC performance provided a shot in the arm for the cause of Naga unification, the Manipur People`s Party (MPP), which had projected itself as the guardian of the interests of the Valley's predominantly Meitei community by emphasising the protection of Manipur's territorial integrity, was effectively routed, securing just five of the 36 seats it contested. Prominent among those who lost were party chief L. Chandramani, sitting MLA Nimaichand Luwang and former Chief Minister Rajkumar Dorendra Singh. MPP's candidate from the Andro constituency, Shyamkumar, who is currently lodged in New Delhi's Tihar jail, won with a huge margin of 13,221 votes over his nearest rival. Shyamkumar, a UNLF sympathizer, was arrested at Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport on October 5. 2006, along with two other senior members of the outfit en route toKathmandu.

The demand for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), 1958 was one of the key issues highlighted during the campaigning stage by a majority of the political parties. The failure of theunion government to implement the recommendations of the Jeevan Reddy Committee, which was set up in November 2004 to look into the working of the AFSPA in the north-eastern region, was emphasized by parties like the MPP to galvanize support. It was only Ibobi Singh's Congress Party that not only blocked a resolution to have the Act removed in the 8th Assembly, but also omitted any reference to it in its election manifesto. It is not clear whether the poll results have decisively buried the moves to repeal the Act, principally by forces sympathetic to the militants.

The UNLF, while abstaining from issuing a boycott call on the poll process, did try to undermine the chances of the Congress Party. In apress statement, on February 6, the UNLF announced that the group`s 'Central Special Force', in the course of an investigation, had unearthed a specific case where more thatRs 50 million worth of development funds were siphoned off through the state Public Works Department by Chief Minister Ibobi Singh and his close confidants, including Govindas Konthoujam, minister in charge of Public Health Engineering, Youth Affairs & Sports and Tourism, for use in the elections. Thestatement further claimed the officials and ministers concerned had since 'confessed' to the act, and handed over aboutRs 48 million to the UNLF. The outfit claimed that the Chief Minister had been systematically siphoning off 10-15 per cent of all development funds.

The return of the Ibobi Singh regime, while it helps retain some element of stability in Manipur's fragile political scenario, also marks the homecoming of a leader who has failed miserably to contain militancy and has often been known to have acted indecisively on every front of governance, aggravating thestate's endemic problems of security, poor infrastructure and economic stagnation. Despite his enormous limitations, however, the people of Manipur do not appear to see an alternative to Ibobi Singh's leadership. It can only be hoped that the minimal expectations of Manipur's 2.4 million people might just spur him to deliver on his party's promises, finally.

Bibhu Prasad Routray is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management.Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal