iNDiA Whining

iNDiA Whining
The various successive exit polls show a clear downtrend for the ruling coalition -- it may not be panic time,but that feel good feeling is certainly gone. The dilemma of the voters in the absence of a viable alternativecouldn't have been better exemplified.

PROJECTIONS (TOTAL): Out of 543 LS seats

	BJP+	Congress+	Others

NDTV	235-255	190-210	100-120
20 April Advertisement	260-280	165-185	110-115
Aaj Tak	262	177	104
20 April Advertisement	288	159	96
Star News	267-279	160--172	97-109

EXIT POLL PHASE 1+ PHASE 2 (TOTALS SEATS 276)

	BJP+	Congress+	Others

NDTV	125	115	39
Aaj Tak	144	100	102
Sahara DRS	155	99	24
Zee-Taleem	125	89	64
Actuals 1999	172	131	35

EXIT POLL SECOND PHASE: 26 APRIL: Total Seats

	BJP+	Congress+	Others

NDTV	50	62	27
Aaj Tak	51	56	99
Star News	68-80	38-50	12-24
Sahara DRS	70	49	17
Zee-Taleem	54	46	36
Actuals 1999	86	30	23

EXIT POLL FIRST PHASE: 20 APRIL

	BJP +	Congress +	Others

NDTV	75	53	12
Aaj Tak	93	44	3
Star News	80	53	7
Sahara-DRS	82	55	3
Zee-Taleem	63-78	37-50	16
1999 Actuals	87	46	7

Details of the NDTV Exit Poll and Projections

BJP+

Cong+

Others

PhaseII

Total

Exit
Poll

1999

Exit
Poll

1999

Exit
Poll

1999

Andhra

21

3

19

18

2

0

Assam

8

2

1

3

6

3

1

Bihar

17

6

14

11

3

0

Jharkhand

8

3

7

5

1

0

Karnataka

13

9

5

3

8

1

0

Maharashtra

24

10

15

14

7

0

2

Orissa

10

8

10

2

0

UP

32

8

13

5

3

19*

16

Others

6

1

2

1

0

4

PhaseII
Exit Poll

139

50

86

62

30

27

23

AllIndia
Projections

543

235
to
255

190
to
210

100
to
120

Based on a sample size of 30,129 covering 55 constituencies, the NDTV-IndianExpress exit poll carried out by A C Nielson, this poll is based on two exit polls for the constituencies thathave already been polled and their earlier opinion poll for those which haven't yet cast their votes.

*In UP, the break-up of others is: (SP: 10, BSP 9)

Details of other Exit Polls

Based on the exit polls done at the end of the two phases, Aaj Tak channel gaveNDA 266 seats, 36 less than in 1999, Cong and its allies 175 and 'others' 102.

Star News-C Voter analysis projected 267-279 seats for NDA, 162-172 forCongress and its allies and 97-109 to others.

However, the surveys on Sahara-DRS and Zee-Taleem for the first two phases,involving a total 276 constituencies, which went to polls today and on April 20, gave 155 and 125 seatsrespectively to the NDA.

While Sahara-DRS gave 99 seats to Congress and its allies uptil the secondphase and 24 to others, the Zee poll predicted 89 for Congress and 64 for others.

For the 276 seats where polling has already been held, the Aaj Tak survey gaveBJP-led NDA 144 -- 28 less than the last elections, 100 seats to Congress -- 31 more than earlier and 32 toother parties, three less than the 1999 tally.

Star News also predicted a change of government in TDP-ruled Andhra Pradesh andCongress-led Karnataka, where assembly polls were held simultaneously.

The Star News predicted 68-80 for NDA, 38-50 to Congress and allies and 12-24to others, out of the 136 seats which went to polls today.

The Zee-Taleem survey showed Congress getting 46, BJP-led NDA getting 54 andothers including Samajwadi Party, BSP, JMM and AGP,bagging 36 seats.

Sahara-DRS showed BJP combine getting 70, Congress and allies 49 and others 17.

According to Sahara, Congress is so far expected to gain 23 seats for which thepolls have already been held, while NDA has lost on 19 and others four seats.

Congress was seen to be gaining, especially in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradeshwhere polling has been completed.

In Maharashtra, Aaj Tak showed Congress-NCP combine getting 25 seats -- a gainof 14 seats, while the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was getting 21 seats -- a loss of seven and other partiesgetting two.

Zee also showed the BJP-shiv Sena losing nine seats to get 19. However, it gaveothers 13 and 16 to the Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra.

In Andhra Pradesh, Aaj Tak showed Congress bagging 29 out of 42 Lok Sabhaseats, the TDP-BJP combine losing 24 seats to end up at 12 and other parties getting only one. Zee gave 24seats to the Congress-combine, 16 to TDP-BJP and two to others.

However, Sahara-DRS differed on its estimates showing the Congress combinegetting 16 seats while Chandrababu Naidu's TDP-BJP alliance getting 25 in the state.

In Karnataka, BJP was shown to be performing better with Aaj Tak projecting 15seats for it, eleven for Congress out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Zee, however, gave nine seats to BJP-JD(U) alliance, 12 to Congress and sevento others including H D Deve Gowda's JD(S).

Congress was also seen to be performing well in Uttar Pradesh where first phaseof polling was held in 32 out of 80 seats. Zee showed Congress winning six seats -- a gain of three, while theBJP win in eleven seats -- down two. It gave eight seats to BSP (plus three), six to SP (minus four) and oneto others.

Aaj Tak gave BJP 11 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 13 to SP, four to BSP, three toCongress and one to others, while Star News predicted 12 seats to BJP, six to Congress, eight to SP, five toBSP and one to others.

In Bihar where polling is completed for 28 out of 40 seats after two rounds,the BJP-JD(U) combine was getting 14 seats (four-BJP, 10-JD(U)), while the RJD-Congress combine eight andothers six, according to Zee.

But Aaj Tak showed BJP-JD(U) getting 18, Congress-RJD nine and others one,while Star News gave 20 seats to the NDA and eight to Laloo Prasad Yadav and his allies.

In Orissa where polling was completed for all the 21 seats today, Star Newsshowed BJP-BJD combine getting 14 and Congress only four. According to Zee, BJP-BJD was getting around 15seats with the rest going to Congress.

In Jharkhand, Star News showed BJP getting six and Congress eight, while Zeeshowed BJP getting nine, Cong-JMM getting three and others two.

In Assam, the regional Asom Gana Parishad was predicted to gain five seats outof the 13 for which polling has been completed, Zee said, adding BJP was likely to get three and Congress onlyfour as compared to ten it held in the dissolved House.

(With agency reports)