Fractured Mandate

The issues of political stability and development dominated the 7th Legislative Assemblyelections in the State of Meghalaya ahead of the polls on February 26, 2003, after years of political chaos,instability and violence. Meghalaya has had four Chief Ministers and six governments over the preceding fiveyears, since the elections of 1998. With constant political uncertainty and a growing menace of terrorism, theoverall security situation in the State had become increasingly volatile.

The election results have hardly improved the situation, and the people's verdict in Meghalaya has createdconditions for another bout of coalition politics and horse-trading.

The fractured mandate has made the Indian National Congress (INC) the single largest partywith 22 seats, followed by the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) with 14, in a 60-seat Assembly. Various Stateand regional parties fared poorly, with the United Democratic Party (UDP) managing to win nine seats; theMeghalaya Democratic Party (MDP) four seats and the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) two seats.The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM), the politicalwing of the Khasi Student's Union (KSU), have also won two seats each, with Independents cornering theremaining five.

Virtually all the winning parties have been part of the outgoing ruling coalition, theMeghalaya People's Forum (MPF). There is, however, a catch in the new arrangement, since there were nopre-poll alliances this time between the INC and the NCP, or among the State parties.

What is encouraging, however, is that, in spite of general apprehensions, Meghalaya had a relatively peacefulelection, unlike Tripura and Nagaland. Four persons were injured in different parts of the State inpoll-related violence, and re-polling had to be ordered in three polling stations - Madanrting in East KhasiHills, Nongtalang in Jaintia Hills and Capasipara in the Garo Hills due to technical snags in ElectronicVoting Machines (EVMs) and incidents of vandalism on February 28, 2003.

It would, however, be incorrect to conclude that the voters in the State were free fromfear. Although the influential Achik Baptist Dalgipa Krisna (ABDK), head of all Baptist churches in the GaroHills, issued its poll guidelines for peaceful and focused franchise in the State and urged all members ofsociety to pray for a peaceful and successful election, the terrorism-related death toll touched 15 (including13 civilians) between the date of the announcement of the polling schedule and the elections. This trenddemonstrates the situation on the ground and the alarming deterioration of the law and order machinery in theState.

Despite repeated threats from underground organizations and sporadic incidents of violence before and duringelection, the total voter turnout was encouraging at 70.38 percent, though lower than the 74.52 per cent in1998. The War-Jaintia Assembly Constituency (AC) topped the list with an 83 percent voter turnout, whileMalki-Nongthymmai AC of East Khasi Hills district recorded the lowest turnout, at 44.90 percent.

Even the seven ACs of the Jaintia Hills district witnessed high turnouts in the face ofthreats issued by the Assam-based Karbi National Volunteers (KNV) and United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS),who have been fighting for greater autonomy for the Karbi tribe in eastern Assam. On February 8, in one of themacabre incidents of pre-poll violence, KNV terrorists killed six villagers in Jaintia Hill district afterseverely torturing them. The KNV had earlier warned the villagers of the area bordering Assam not toparticipate in the poll process.

Although both the homegrown terrorist outfits, Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) and HynniewtrepNational Liberation Council (HNLC), maintained a low profile during the polls, the Election Commission haddeclared some 500-odd polling stations (out of a total 1,543 booths) 'sensitive' and stepped up securitymeasures accordingly. While the HNLC rejected the electoral process under the 'Indian administration', theANVC is believed to have collusive ties with some political parties in the State. However, instead of anylarge-scale violence or interference during the elections, the ANVC continued with its abduction-for-ransomactivities relentlessly. On Election Day itself, security forces rescued four abducted persons, including oneSubsidiary Intelligence Bureau (SIB) officer, from Damalgiri near Tura.

The general perception in Meghalaya is that the fractured mandate will fuel instability and could also give afillip to terrorist groups operating in the state. While some sort of coalition will, eventually, be cobbledtogether, the possibility of a stable alliance committed to peace and development remains remote.

The author is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management. Courtesy: South AsiaIntelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal