Crystal Gazing

Does the Bharatiya Janata Party have anything new to offer us in the new decade? India needs an opposition party that can be taken more seriously than the BJP was in 2009. There is always scope to put the ruling Congress and UPA on the mat. But the year drawing to a close spelt unmitigated disaster for India’s principal opposition party. There was the heart attack of the general election verdict that saw the party slide further from its 2004 defeat, and the subsequent life support that the RSS has tried to put the patient on. The great problem of course is that many BJP leaders believe it is the wrong course of treatment that the good men of the Sangh are providing. So we now have a new party president in the portly shape of the RSS appointee, the unknown Nitin Gadkari, but there is uncertainty about whether the new year promises good health and prosperity for the party.

Here’s my status report on the principal characters of the BJP and my predictions for their future course of action.

L.K. Advani: He’s quit as Leader of the Opposition so will no longer have heads of state and foreign dignitaries calling on him as a matter of protocol. But with a brand new job now created for him in the form of the post of chairman of the parliamentary party Advani will remain a force to reckon with. He knows the organization inside out and there are already signs that he sees himself as a bulwark against the RSS onslaught on the more politically adept leaders of the party such as Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj. Now that the pressure of clinging on to a post is gone, Advani’s keen intellect, vast experience and native cunning in the matter of handling the men from Nagpur will certainly come in handy. Advani can be expected to play an interesting role. But it is debatable whether he will succeed in pushing back the tide in favour of the RSS.

Narendra Modi: The Gujarat Chief Minister will focus on his state that celebrates 50 years of existence in 2010. The results of the 2009 elections had been a setback to his national ambitions but he is a gritty fighter who knows that the kingdom of India will never be conquered if fortress Gujarat is breached. Lavish celebrations and yatras are planned across Gujarat in the coming year. Many still see Modi as the future of the BJP but they also accept that a more middle of the road leader will have greater pan-Indian acceptance particularly in an age where emotional ideological issues linked to identity and religion are flopping. But the next general elections are still some distance away in 2014 and this is the time for potential leaders to rebuild their image and build bases or keep them intact as Modi is trying to do.

Arun Jaitley: Clearly the favoured BJP face among the chattering classes. His strategy as Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House has been to stay focused on policy issues in parliament and has done that well in the just concluded session of parliament with a excellent grasp of varied and complex issues like climate change and the Liberhan Commission. He has also been a successful manager of state elections but the RSS has apparently ruled him out for organizational work. It will be interesting to see how long Jaitley stays the course as he always has an alternative career as one of the country’s top lawyers and has given up his very lucrative private practice to hold the constitutional post. He enjoys great acceptance among professionals and middle classes across the country but has all too often run foul of party colleagues. Jaitley enjoys getting the grasp of public issues and evolving a party line but does he have the stomach for the inter-personal rivalries and the constant pressure from the Sangh?

Sushma Swaraj: She’s now got the big job of Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and every body’s favourite "behen" in the BJP can never be ignored. She is a good public speaker both at public rallies and performs adequately when the House is in session. She is excellent in agitational mode too when all her "bahu-beti" rhetoric and public postures come in handy. Sushma will play her cards intelligently and cautiously and keep her nose out of organisational affairs, something in which she never really showed much interest. Can she be the future face for the BJP, the bharatiya nari to offset Sonia Gandhi? Not really, as she does not have the party rallying around her. Sushma will play an important role in articulating the BJP’s positions. Her own style and rhetoric may have struck a chord in the age of saas-bahu serials but as the nation has switched off that genre she really has to update her style. Yet she has certainly made her place in the BJP and all future equations will have to factor in the need to give her her due in the male dominated party.

Rajnath Singh: Really does not count for much now that he’s no longer BJP president. He has no mass base and not a great public image.

Nitin Gadkari: Unknown entity. Have to wait and watch. Currently being seen as mukhauta for RSS supremo Mohan Rao Bhagwat. The big question of course is will the new face symbolise anything new for the BJP in the New Year?