Will It Or Will It not?

Will Al Qaeda strike again the coming 9/11 to mark the first anniversary of its terrorist strikes in the USlast year? If so, when, where and how?

Those are the questions uppermost in the minds of the intelligence and security agencies of the world as9/11 approaches. They are rightly tightening up security everywhere so that they are not caught off guardagain and the public does not give in to complacency.

One needs to draw  attention to certain aspects which tend to get ignored in most analyses.

As I have been saying repeatedly for more than a year, Osama bin Laden practises a special brand ofpunishment terrorism and not objective or demand terrorism. There is no strategic objective or tactical demandbehind most acts of terrorism committed by him. That is why there is rarely a claim of responsibility afterhis acts of terrorism . He leaves objective or demand terrorism to the allies of Al Qaeda in the InternationalIslamic Front for Jehad Against the US and Israel .

He looks upon himself as God's chosen one to inflict punishment on those whom he considers to be theenemies of Islam. He looks upon such punishment as divinely justified acts of retribution and not as acts ofterrorism. In his view, the US and Israel are the greatest enemies of Islam in the world today. There arehundreds of Muslims all over the world who agree with his view and there will be even hundreds, if notthousands, more if the US invades Iraq and has President Saddam Hussain overthrown.

A careful analysis of Osama's past acts of terrorism would indicate that he has rarely taken the initiativein organising acts of terrorism against the US. His acts came as retribution for  what he thought the UShad done to Islam. The terrorist strikes of last 9/11 were seen by him as retribution for the US bombing ofAfghanistan and the Sudan in October,1998. Since then, he, his followers and their Pakistani associates suchas the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) had been warning the US:" You attacked the Muslims with your Cruisemissiles in their territory.  We will attack you with our Cruise missiles in your territory." Thehijacked aircraft were their Cruise missiles.

Nobody in the US  paid attention to what was being said and happening in Pakistan and paid a heavyprice for it. bin Laden rarely celebrates his successful acts of terrorism by organising encores to coincidewith their anniversary.  For him, the more emotionally significant date for the Muslims is October 7,coinciding with the first anniversary of the commencement of the US air strikes in Afghanistan, which have tobe avenged. While the whole world has been talking in anxiety of 9/11, jehadis of the Osama kind have alsobeen talking in eager expectation  of 10/7.

Will bin Laden be able to organise another 9/11, if he wants to, a 10/7 or another spectacular act on someother day? Al Qaeda still has the capability and the required motivation, but its leadership structure isweaker than it was before last 9/11.  Pakistani sources claim that bin Laden continues to be physicallyincapacitated by a sharpnel injury and that despite the best efforts of serving and retired Pakistani Armydoctors, he had not been able to recover his normal speech at least till August 10,2002. Reports dated August10,2002, indicated that he continued to be under treatment in the Binori madrasa of Karachi. Subsequentdevelopments are not known.

This physical incapacity should explain his long absence from the TV and the radio and his followersresorting to disseminating on the internet letters purported to have been written by him to project him asalive and kicking.

He has not been able to find a good substitute for Mohammad Atef, the Egyptian ex-police officer, who waskilled by the US air strikes. Atef was an organiser par excellence. Neither Ayman-al-Zawahiri, the presentNo.2, nor Abu Zubaida, presently under custody reportedly in the US naval base in Diego Garcia,is a match forhim. Atef ensured the physical security of Osama and translated his wishes and words into action.

Al Qaeda no longer has a composite infrastructure, a composite HQ, located at one place and co-ordinatingfrom there.Its infrastructure and HQ have been scattered to diiferent parts of Pakistan, with some even goingto Bangla Desh and being sheltered there by the local Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) and the Harkat-ul-Jehad-Al-Islami(HUJI). Its infrastructure, HQ and communications network have become practically indistinguishable from thoseof the Pakistani components of the International Islamic Front---the HUM, the HUJI, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET),the Jaish-e-Mohammad (the JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ).

Musharraf has acted somewhat firmly against the LJ which has not been involved in terrorism in India'sJammu & Kashmir, but has treated and continues to treat with kid gloves the other four organisations,which he needs against India. He has left their terrorist infrastructure totally intact, whether inPakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), the Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan), in Pakistani Punjab or in otherparts of Pakistan.

In its anxiety not to weaken the position of Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military dictator, the US haslargely spared this infrastructure and networking  in Pakistani territory. Back home in US homeland, itsfocus has been on smoking out the Arab supporters/sympathisers/sleeping agents of Al Qaeda. The large numberof sleeping agents of the HUM, the HUJI and Al Fuqra in the US has not received any attention. They remainready to act at the bidding of Al Qaeda or the International Islamic Front.

The US ignored warning signals from Pakistan before last 9/11 and invited 9/11. It continues to ignore thewarning signals from Pakistan, thereby inviting upon itself another catastrophic act of terrorism. Musharrafcontinues to be the Achilles heel of the US-led war against terrorism. 

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt, of India, and, presently,Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai)