Retirements before the 2019 Lok Sabha General Elections

Ten (10) members of the Rajya Sabha will retire in 2017 while 68 members will retire in 2018. Eight (8) members are set to retire in 2019, but none of them will retire before the 2019 general elections to the Lok Sabha. In all, 78 seats of the Rajya Sabha are up for grabs before the 2019 elections. Four (4) of these vacancies will be of the nominated members.

No gains for the BJP in 2017

BJP/NDA will not see any net gain in the Rajya Sabha numbers in 2017. Out of the 10 seats on offer, 6 of them are from West Bengal where the BJP/NDA is not in a position to win any. In Gujarat, the BJP will retain its two seats. In Goa, the lone seat will be go to that party which can form the government. Since the BJP currently holds that seat, there will no net gain to the BJP even if it were to form the government and win the seat.

NDA will gain 10+ seats in 2018

The real gains for the NDA will come in 2018 when Rajya Sabha elections will happen in 19 different states. The biggest gain will be in UP where the BJP/NDA is in a position to win 8 out of the 10 seats on offer, a net gain of 7 seats. The BJP/NDA will also gain in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand. The BJP/NDA will also lose some seats in the states of Bihar, Karnataka and Telangana. In all, BJP/NDA will gain about 11 seats while the UPA will lose 11 seats. The others will maintain their share of seats even in 2018. Since Gujarat & Himachal elections are due in 2017, the outcome in these states will depend on the election results. Four (4) nominated members also retire in 2018 giving the BJP an opportunity to nominate members of their choice.  If these 4 nominated members also choose to join the BJP after their nomination, the strength of the NDA will further go up.

 

(This article was originally published in FACTLY, and has been cross-posted with permission.)